President Trump

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Mar 10, 2016 10:52 pm

Did you see that assault at the Trump rally.
And the cops handcuff the black victim. Classic.
I'm telling you, there's going to be some very serious violence coming.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:08 pm

JimHow wrote:A GREAT article on the menace that is/was Marco Rubio:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_ ... ingle.html

In 50 years, Rubio's campaign will still be a cautionary tale and they'll play that debate clip with Christie every 4 years as a warning, just like Nixon's heavy makeup in 1960 or Al Gore's excessive sighing in 2000.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:13 pm

Definitely. I'm telling you, I'm always going to have a small place in my heart for what Christie did.
He helped save us, at least for now, from a very, very dangerous person.
I consider Rubio -- and what he stands for -- every bit as dangerous to the Republic as Donald Trump.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:20 pm

I love picture #8 among these 10 Lincoln pictures, taken on February 9, 1864, standing with his left hand on the chair.
I wonder where I could get a copy of that print.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/18/us/galler ... index.html

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 12, 2016 12:40 am

Wow this is a scary scene in Chi Town!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 12, 2016 12:42 am

Here come the Chicago cops! I told you guys there was gonna be violence. This is just the beginning, man.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 12, 2016 2:29 am

Wow… Bernie in Chicago tonight….

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Mar 12, 2016 3:29 am

Bernie supporters showing what a Sanders revolution might look like, adapted from the Castro/Ortega playbook. Are they Sandernistas?

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat Mar 12, 2016 6:38 pm

Things are getting nuts at Trump rallies. Secret service agents formed a protective ring around him briefly at a rally in Ohio!

This stuff is scary.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 12, 2016 6:55 pm

Rubio says we are sinking into anarchy.
That may be the first thing I have agreed with him.

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-d ... hio-rally/

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 12, 2016 6:57 pm

I really think Chicago is gonna be a watershed moment.
I was watching it live on CNN last night and for about a half hour it got pretty scary:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/12/us/tr ... ffles.html

JCNorthway · Post by **JCNorthway** » Sat Mar 12, 2016 6:59 pm

Does this stuff remind anyone of things going on in Germany during the 1920s?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 12, 2016 7:02 pm

Yes, indeed it does. And things really haven't even got started yet. Wait til the general election.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Mar 13, 2016 1:12 am

Watching him in Kansas City right now. He's losing his mind! He's babbling like a madman!

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sun Mar 13, 2016 4:16 pm

JCNorthway wrote:Does this stuff remind anyone of things going on in Germany during the 1920s?

Yes. This is just like how the NAZIs started. Hitler ran for president in 1932, lost but was appointed chancellor by his opponent and succeeded to the presidency on Hindenberg's death in 1934. Hitler rallied his supporters by blaming others (especially the Jewish people) for Germany's troubles, economics and otherwise, and that they should be mad as hell. Sounds like Trump with Muslims and immigrants. Big patriotic rallies were the norm in NAZI events to "make Germany great again" and violence increased steadily. Of course, Hitler was insane and used his fascist success to unleash the holocaust, WWII, and the near destruction of Germany.

The irony in all this is that Hitler wasn't even German. An Austrian citizen until 1932, when he obtained German citizenship so he could run for president. Where were the birthers when the world needed them?

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 1:16 am

It all comes down to Ohio tomorrow night.

Here's 538's Harry Enten:
"[Ohio] is Kasich’s last stand. If he doesn’t win, his campaign is over. But Kasich is in a better position to win Ohio than Rubio is to win Florida: Kasich led in two polls released in the past week. Not only that, but Kasich did fairly well in Kentucky and Michigan in the counties bordering Ohio. One wild card in this contest is that Rubio’s communications director basically said that Rubio supporters should vote for Kasich in Ohio to stop Trump. Although Rubio’s numbers have fallen in the state over the past few weeks, any Rubio fans moving into the Kasich column could make a big difference. The importance of this primary to the larger Republican race is difficult to overstate. According to my math (and that of Republican Benjamin Ginsberg, who basically wrote the GOP’s delegate rules), Trump is unlikely to reach a majority of delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination if he loses Ohio."

As 538's model gives Kasich an 80% of winning Ohio, looks like we have a contested convention in our future.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 1:28 am

Ok here are my predictions:

Ohio
1. Trump
2. Kasich
3. Cruz
4. Rubio

Florida
1. Trump
2. Rubio
3. Cruz
4. Kasich

Illinois
1. Trump
2. Cruz
3. Kasich
4. Rubio

Missouri
1. Trump
2. Cruz
3. Kasich
4. Rubio

North Carolina
1. Trump
2. Cruz
3. Rubio
4. Kasich

I think Kasich is overrated, he couldn't even come in second place in neighboring Michigan.
Trump will win 5 of 5 states on Tuesday night.
And then there will be two….
i don't see a contested convention, even if Kasich ekes out OH. Trump just keeps winning, the snowball is gonna get bigger and bigger….
538 has been wrong on a number of occasions this season, and they're going to be wrong about OH tomorrow night.

Rubio MAY win the Northern Mariana Islands (but I put my money on Lyin' Ted). Good night, sweet prince.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 1:55 am

I also think Bernie is gonna shock the world tomorrow night!

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 2:50 am

You might be right, Jim, though I wouldn't bet with your line if I was putting money on this.

I just think it's fascinating that a single, tightly contested (according to the polls) state could all but wrap this up for Trump or pretty much ensure a contested convention.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 2:53 am

Yeah, I think you're right Patrick, Ohio may be just a bit of a stretch for the Big Man. I think if the primary were held last week The Donald would have won. It seems like it has swung over to Buckeye John in the past week. The question is whether The Big Man's crazies will be more motivated to turn out.
I think FL will be closer than the polls because of Rubio's early vote effort and because, well, it's FL.
Trump will win FL but it won't be by the 20 point margins in the polls, it'll be more like 5-8%.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 11:36 am

The Ides of March. A very political day. Is this the day that the party of Lincoln will crash into flames?
We'll know by midnight, as the last votes come in from the suburbs of Dayton, Cincinnati, and Cleveland.
Will Ohio save the GOP? Or at least delay the inevitable?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 2:01 pm

The Rubio campaign has that "last days of Spinal Tap" feel to it. Still, I'm nervous that the little worm might pull off a miracle in that swampland of a Florida electoral system.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 10:19 pm

And so Tuesday evening arrives at last.
This could be a historic night. Or it could be a letdown.
Or something in between.
If Trump could sweep and Bernie pull out upsets in the north, this could get really fun.
The Big Man has already won yuuge in the Northern Mariana Islands.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 11:26 pm

Looking strong for the Big Man in Florida with 14% in.
I'm reading Rick Perlstein's "Nixonland," so I'm not going to gloat too much if "we don't have Lil' Marco to kick around anymore…"

Karl is gonna be hard to swallow tonight, as he continues to hold out hope for the anti-Trump establishment….

RDD · Post by **RDD** » Wed Mar 16, 2016 12:23 am

Marco is done......
He'll be back in 4.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Mar 16, 2016 12:24 am

Good riddance.

hautbrionlover · Post by **hautbrionlover** » Wed Mar 16, 2016 1:33 am

I think that Rubio might be finished politically.
I read somewhere that he could theoretically still run for reelection to the Senate, but it seems unlikely, and if he doesn't, I don't see him having a political renaissance.

JCNorthway · Post by **JCNorthway** » Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:02 am

As compared to other primary evenings where I chose to largely ignore the candidates' speeches, tonight I listened to Hillary, Donald, John (Kasich), and Ted. Hillary sounds like a recording from 1992. Kasich sounds like a nice family man looking for a following. Donald and Ted could probably meet the criteria for a bevy of pscho-social diagnoses. It was interesting, particularly for Donald and Ted, to hear them talk about how they would reverse/change things currently in place when they (as President) would have no authority to do so. And the sad thing is that many of their followers do not understand enough about how our government works to know that they cannot do what they say. It will be an interesting nominating and election year to follow!

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Mar 16, 2016 6:09 am

Bernie's speech tonight was the best I heard, by far (I heard Clinton, Trump, and Kasich as well).

So, Hillary goes 5-for-5 with two very tight races, and Trump goes 4-for-5 (assuming his tiny victory in Missouri holds). Even losing Ohio, it looks like Trump can get enough delegates to win the nomination outright with all the winner-take-all states left to vote. It will be tight though, keeping us glued to our media.

It's still either Trump or contested convention, but Trump outright got a lot closer tonight.

JCNorthway · Post by **JCNorthway** » Wed Mar 16, 2016 3:08 pm

Entertaining piece in Forbes online - "Rest in Piece to the Republican Party."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnzogby/2 ... 5248f56fe3

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Mar 16, 2016 3:51 pm

Rest in peace, GOP. And good riddance.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:06 am

A good Rolling Stone article on Rubio:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/ne ... 318?page=9

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat Mar 19, 2016 2:22 am

This is my favorite line in the Rolling Stone article:
"T.D. Allman, author of Finding Florida: The True Story of the Sunshine State... sees Rubio as an equivalent of the Florida housing bubble."

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Mar 22, 2016 12:35 am

Seems to me that the Big Man is having his Kennedy-speech-to-the-Houston-ministers moment before AIPAC tonight.
Son of a gun!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Mar 22, 2016 12:36 am

He even read from teleprompters! So presidential!

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Tue Mar 22, 2016 12:50 am

His "stance" on trade seems a faint echo of Smoot-Hawley. The timing also seems coincidental when you look at economies and markets.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Mon Mar 28, 2016 2:01 pm

Well I think it's pretty clear now that Trump won't be the GOP nominee. If he runs as an independent that makes Hillary a prohibitive favorite in the general.

Funny story about Hawaii. Well sort of. Apparently for their preference polling last Saturday they announced that the polls would open at 1 pm. Apparently they never announced the closing time leaving a lot of voters shut out when the polls actually closed. Something NKR there.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Mar 28, 2016 2:06 pm

It's really bizarre, you almost wonder whether the Donald doesn't want to win. It seems like he is not even putting up a fight in Wisconsin. I agree with you, his path to the nomination has taken a turn for the worse. It's not going to be Kasich, though. What is going to happen if the guys in the smoke filled rooms take it away from the guy with the most delegates? I truly think there may indeed be riots! And they want to allow guns inside the arena!

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Mon Mar 28, 2016 2:10 pm

There's no smoking in the convention center. They'll have to do the horse trading at least 50 feet from the entrances. Now, guns on the other hand, may be allowed.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Mon Mar 28, 2016 2:12 pm

Jim, we should quickly pen the "armed insurrection" novella with the inception at the brokered GOP convention.