Bordeaux Wine Enthusiasts

That's good, but don't forget, she had bigger leads than that after the convention and they disappeared in about 7 days.
There's still over a month, and three more debates, to go.

AKR wrote:Rosie O'Donnel would go into hiding immediately, only releasing video blogs to her followers, through a circuitous route of cutouts and drop boxes.



Here she exhorts the Anti Trumpistas to stand fat with the resistance.

This is some funny shit...

I agree wib Arv-- I'm guessing Trump would be more of a Chaos president than an Evil one, though if he really is as racist and misogynistic as he usually sounds, who knows? Maybe he and his pal Vlad will form a new Axis and bestride the narrow world like a colossus. Marble and gold (unpaid for) would roar back in to vogue. Men with toupees would rejoice the world over. Frat boys would party like its 1999. White supremacists would come out of the shadows and assert their moral superiority, forming deputized deportation police. French wine would be banned, and the White House would become a fulltime reality tv show.

Perhaps that will be his next TV series - an alternate reality show called West Wingnuts where he plays a President and has a shadow cabinet acting out their policies in response to prevailing events. Kim Kardashian is appointed as his Vice President (Fashion) much to his various wives ire, after she shows him the revenue power of selling apps, once he has mastered late night Tweettering. Intertwined with his normal manic episodes, will be dream sequences, including a doozy where he and HRC are portrayed as a married, similar to the Cybill Shepherd/Bruce Willis vignette in the 80s crime comedy, Moonlighting.

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I can chuckle about all this, since I also agree with Blanquito that the race isn't close and the only question is whether HRC wins ... or wins big (and mistakes that for some kind of personal mandate). I don't think the national mood nor economy will improve under her though. For a large part of America, who never recovered from the last recession, they will be left scratching their heads after the immediate rush of a victory, when they wonder, what next?

We laugh, but I honestly think Donald has considered the idea of a White House reality show.

West Wingnuts, genius.

Blanquito wrote:West Wingnuts, genius.

+1

Sorry guys, I couldn't hang on any longer for the news. I guess it's all over now. The world seems to have taken it in stride.

Our man in Hawaii...
The sun truly never sets on BWE...

geez, is the right person at the top of the ticket in the clinton/kaine ticket?

trick question:

the most dangerous candidate of the four is:

a) clinton
b) trump
c) kaine
d) pence

answer: pence

Kaine coming out strong.

Why does the moderator even bother to ask questions?

i know, it's crazy

this tim kaine is tough!

good debate!
pence has been what i expected.
the real revelation for me has been kaine, I think he has really acquitted himself well tonight.

Nate Silver today:
"Hillary Clinton continues to gain ground in our presidential forecast, as it becomes clearer that last week’s debate was a turning point in the race. In fact, the polls we added to our database on Tuesday may have been Donald Trump’s worst since the debate. They included surveys showing Clinton leading Trump by 9 percentage points and 10 points in Pennsylvania, by 6 points and 2 points in North Carolina, and by 3 points in Nevada.

These polls contribute to an impressive streak for Clinton, who has trailed in just one of 25 swing state polls conducted since the debate. Her chances of winning the election are up to 75 percent in our polls-only model, her best position since Aug. 30, and 71 percent in our polls-plus model."

The experts seem to think Pence won.
Myself, I was impressed by Kaine.

Kaine was much more prepared and serious than I expected. He comes across as goofy on the campaign trail. I thought Kaine won as well, but given my liberal bias I'm sure I'm not objective. It wasn't the slam-dunk that HRC dropped on the Dumpster.

If Clinton wins, we may be seeing more of Pence in 4 years.

I might vote for Alec Baldwin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nQGBZQrtT0

Oh, Canada!

No one screwed up so VP debate makes no real difference. Pence is looking to 2020 and might be a strong candidate. WP says if election held today, Clinton wins easily.

I know the polls and pundits don't say he won but I was really impressed by Kaine.
I just liked his style and demeanor.
I didn't think he was at all "too attack-dog."
I mean, it's a debate for crying out loud!

JimHow wrote:I know the polls and pundits don't say he won but I was really impressed by Kaine.
I just liked his style and demeanor.
I didn't think he was at all "too attack-dog."
I mean, it's a debate for crying out loud!

My wife thought Kaine was distinctly better than Pence, but she's more biased than I am.
One thing that stood out for her was the abortion segment at the end.
She says millenials will pay attention to the difference between the two campaigns over that issue, with Kaine's position being a lot more sensible.

The reports and interviews I've heard/read suggest Pence won on style and Kaine won on substance, with Donald Trump being the big loser.

24 hours later, watching all the news.
Conclusion:
I'm a big Tim Kaine fan!

Damn, I wish those poll numbers were a little more convincing.
It's gonna be a YUUUGE debate on Sunday night.

Usually silly to cherry pick polls, but today had a poll where Hillary is ahead in Ohio for the first time in ages:

Ohio -- Trump 42, Clinton 44, Johnson 5, Stein 1 -- Clinton +2

Kaine was decidedly more serious and better prepared than I expected based on my prior impression of him from rallies. So he exceeded my expectations. Pence was about what I expected. So their performance relative to my expectations plus my left-leaning bias had me feeling Kaine won. But I'm not surprised to find I'm in the minority.

It's encouraging to see Clinton rising in the polls, but way too early and way too little to feel confident.

The other worrisome thing is the possibility of a Pence run at the top of the ticket in 2020. That's eons in political time, but if Clinton is our next President there's a strong argument to be made for a Republican to win in 2020. Pence is sane enough to be electable, and is scary in his own right:

http://www.salon.com/2016/10/05/purvi-p ... rtion-law/

Doesn't Bela Lugosi, um, I mean Ted Cruz, have the inside line on the next nomination?

Let's worry about ABT (Anyone But Trump) in 2016 before worrying about 2020.
I'm not crazy about Pence and ideologically he's probably the polar opposite of me in every sociological aspect, but if he gets elected, then fair enough. Trump OTOH is just a disgusting sociopath egomaniac who plays on people's worst fears through bigotry and various innuendos. I am convinced his only objective in the White House is to please and maybe enrich himself.

It will be interesting to see if Donald can fit his ego inside the room where the next debate will be held.
My guess is not.

I think we should ladder elections like investors ladder bonds. So even as we are in the midst of the 2016 campaign now we could simultaneously be running campaigns for 2020, 2024, etc. It would bring stability to a system knowing that when one president matures we still have several presidents in our portfolio.

That's not a bad idea Hound.
I see the latest polls in AZ, NV, FL, and NH have Trump either even or ahead.
We truly are doomed. After the week he's had, and he is in a dead heat.
I'm telling you, brace yourselves: Donald J. Trump will be the next President of the United States.

JimHow wrote:That's not a bad idea Hound.
I see the latest polls in AZ, NV, FL, and NH have Trump either even or ahead.
We truly are doomed. After the week he's had, and he is in a dead heat.
I'm telling you, brace yourselves: Donald J. Trump will be the next President of the United States.

That's not at all the way I see it Jim.
The most credible polls have Hillary ahead in the "Trump must win" battleground states, including Ohio as of yesterday. Her lead in other states is expanding since the first debate.
The Atlantic has come out with only their third presidential endorsement since their inception. LIncoln, Johnson, and now Clinton.
It is a scathing indictment of the republican candidate, and a Must Vote for Hillary or be Doomed scenario.

The Trump taxes thing isn't going away anytime soon. I saw his former tax accountant/lawyer on MSNBC last night.
I read an article today about a realistic scenario which probably allowed him to legally take that humungous deduction, which was made illegal in 2002 when congress rewrote the faulty law that SCOTUS had upheld in a 2001 case.
The article says he could have deducted losses actually borne by banks, etc. losses which Trump never had to repay.
He should have been forced to pay taxes on any loan writoffs as profit, but the law created a bona-fide loophole which was never intended.
HRC voted for the new law making it illegal - thus neutralizing Trump's claim that she never did anything to change the laws he was relying on to cheat the American public.

I didn't watch the accountant/lawyer on MSNBC last night.
How was he able to talk about these things without violating account- or lawyer-client privileges?

She is only up 2 in NH per today's Boston Globe/Suffolk poll.
How can that be, after the week he has had?

He's up by a point in FL.

If he is nip and tuck with her after arguably the most disastrous week in electoral history since Ed Muskie cried, what is it going to be like if he strings together a strong ten day stretch?

I have a hard time believing those polls are reflective of reality.

Here's Larry Sabato's current map.



If the election is close in some states (which I don't think will happen) who would you bet on - someone who has built a turnout machine and invested in some kind of ground game, or the party which jets in, throws some red meat to a friendly crowd, and then jets home, maybe making 1-2 appearances a day?

The Dems major advantages (to me) it seems that they have permanently converted VA and CO into purplish/blue states, when for a long time those were historically conservative areas.

So HRC can weather the loss of FL or NC (in an extreme situation) and be ok. I'm no booster for her btw, anyone who knows me, can attest to that!

I wish there was a way I could vote for them to both lose though.

=====

Perhaps when they all go to hell, the Devil will arrange for a spousal swap where DJT gets HRC, and Bill gets Melania.

At that point, Bill thinks he's won the trade, and rejuvenated, starts laying plans for a gubernatorial campaign in the underworld (Hell like Arkansas is not ordained to be a Red State), until he realizes what M. Butterfly was all about...

In the beginning, there was JimHow.

Then came Michael Moore.

Now, Robert Reich on why Trump might win the election:

"Dear fellow MoveOn member,

I've said it before: I’m afraid that Hillary Clinton could lose this election. Here are five reasons why:

1. This race is so volatile. Clinton is up, for now, by just an average of 3.2 points in the polls.1 But we’ve seen time and again how quickly Trump can catch up by managing to act sane for a week or two.

The way to win in a close election is voter turnout. Click here to chip in $2.70 to support MoveOn’s proven, effective get-out-the-vote efforts.

2. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is siphoning votes from Clinton. The Republican-turned-Libertarian’s low profile is allowing him to skate by with little scrutiny. Recent polls show that more than 20% of voters under age 30 support Johnson.2 While Johnson’s stance supporting marijuana legalization is the same as the majority of millennials, he is on the wrong side of most progressive issues—from his support of Citizens United to his refusal to take climate change seriously.3 Yet he is drawing voters from Clinton overall and among key voters in the Obama coalition, putting Clinton’s victory at risk.4

Because MoveOn isn't part of a political party, they have the ability to connect with voters who have reservations about Clinton or aren't convinced their vote really matters. Click here to chip in $2.70 to support MoveOn’s proven, effective get-out-the-vote efforts.

3. Democrats might sit this election out, if we don’t convince them to vote. Only 65% of Democrats say they're sure they'll vote this year—which is lower than it's been in decades; it’s a jaw-dropping 11 points lower than the 76% of Republicans who say they're certain to vote.5

The good news is, MoveOn is talking with plenty of unlikely voters—folks who need a little extra nudge—at the door. Click here to chip in $2.70 to support MoveOn’s proven, effective get-out-the-vote efforts.

4. According to historical patterns, it’s Trump’s election to lose. Only once in modern political history has the same party held the White House for three straight terms; after two terms, Americans have historically voted for change. The American University historian Allan Lichtman—who has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election for 30 years by using a system developed through studying every presidential election from 1860 to 1980—projects that Trump will win.6

But we aren’t doomed to repeat history—if we work hard. Click here to chip in $2.70 to support MoveOn’s proven, effective get-out-the-vote efforts.

5. Republicans are “coming home” to Trump. The Republican party has consolidated around Trump, with upwards of 85% of Republicans supporting him.7 Even Ted Cruz now endorses him.8

The best way to overcome high motivation among Republicans is by turning out progressive voters. Click here to chip in $2.70 to support MoveOn’s proven, effective get-out-the-vote efforts.

With just over a month to go, we can’t afford to take our foot off the gas for even one minute. And we can’t afford to only get going on days where the election looks like it’s a 50-50 nailbiter.

That’s why I’m doing everything I possibly can to defeat Donald Trump every day—and I hope you'll join me.

Will you chip in $2.70 to MoveOn’s proven, highly-effective get-out-the-vote program right now? Just pull out your credit card and then click here to chip in.

We have to keep talking to undecided voters in the battleground states. And early voting has already started in a number of states.

If you’ve been on the fence about giving (or giving again), now is the time. I hate to ask so strongly, but this election is too important to mince words.

Can I count on you to make an urgent contribution of $2.70 to MoveOn’s election program? Just click here.

Thanks so much for all you do.

–Robert Reich

Sources:

1. "General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein," RealClearPolitics, accessed October 6, 2016
http://act.moveon.org/go/5565?t=37&akid ... 014._BEfKE

2. "Hillary Clinton edges ahead of Donald Trump after first debate - CBS News poll," CBS News, October 3, 2016
http://act.moveon.org/go/6087?t=39&akid ... 014._BEfKE

3. "The myth of Gary Johnson," ThinkProgress, September 22, 2016
https://act.moveon.org/go/6088?t=41&aki ... 014._BEfKE

4. "Clinton Losing Millennial Support Nationally and in Key States," NBC News, September 18, 2016
http://act.moveon.org/go/5977?t=43&akid ... 014._BEfKE

5. "Americans Less Sure They'll Vote for President," Gallup, accessed October 5, 2016
http://act.moveon.org/go/6076?t=45&akid ... 014._BEfKE

6. "Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly," The Washington Post, September 23, 2016
https://act.moveon.org/go/6090?t=47&aki ... 014._BEfKE

7. "As Election Day Nears, Republicans Come Around to Trump," The Wall Street Journal, September 23, 2016
http://act.moveon.org/go/6039?t=49&akid ... 014._BEfKE

8. "Cruz: I'm voting for Trump," Politico, September 23, 2016
http://act.moveon.org/go/6091?t=51&akid ... 014._BEfKE

Want to support MoveOn's work? Senator Elizabeth Warren says, "I'm so enthusiastic about MoveOn's smart and targeted plan to hire a network of organizers in key battleground states to mobilize and train volunteers to knock on hundreds of thousands of doors. It's bold and ambitious—and exactly what is needed to help swing Senate races, resoundingly defeat Donald Trump, and give Democrats a fighting chance to take back the House." Will you chip in to help make it all possible?"

Do not underestimate the effect cannabis is having on this election. Many stoners are voting for Gary Johnson because he's pro-legalization. When Trump is elected they'll be all, like, "oh wow, man, what happened?"

Trump came to Reno this week and cannot even pronounce Nevada correctly.

Maybe he was stoned.

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I'm going to contribute $2.70 to my Cotes du Rhone fund.

(Costco's 2015 CdR is $7 and is quite good, being a negociant effort from Patric Lesec, from Estraguez (sp?) grapes)