Bordeaux Wine Enthusiasts

I know. The appropriate point is that he is refusing to pledge to accept (although he did so explicitly in the first debate--of course he would say I'm "wrong" about that) the results in the absence of any credible claim of fraud, rigging etc.

There's really some amazing stuff going on out there in the press.
This was a historic night.
The Wall Street Journal seems to be very riled up:

‘I just saw a constitutional crisis on television,’ said a teacher, who won’t vote for rival Hillary Clinton either

The Constitution, let me tell you what a bad deal that was for America, probably the worst deal America ever made, and you know why, because it was negotiated by political hacks like Hillary Clinton instead of the smartest, people, the smartest business people, and really, it was a very bad deal. I mean really, really stupid, are we that stupid?

I mean who runs a business--I mean if we ran business the way we run this country--who in business gives power to three separate groups in the business? I mean, nobody. Stupid. We really got taken on this constitution thing. I mean, sad.

C'mon, Jim - Maine as the cleanest state??!! We've seen one of Maine's leading lights intimidate voters and stuff ballot boxes year after year at BWE!

In recent German history, there is a little parallel to this amazing spectacle with Trump. The former Bavarian governor Franz-Josef Strauß, the most polarizing German politician in the post-war period, insisted on a candidacy for the chancellorship in the late eighties. The result was a disaster for his party, the CDU/CSU, and Helmut Schmidt, SPD, remained chancellor.
Strauß was done, and the more liberal forces in the CDU/CSU under the leadership of Helmut Kohl took over, and a few years later, Kohl became chancellor.

I had to chuckle about this line at the end of a New York Times article by Kevin Baker discussing the debate.

"To reward this tired demagogue with a vote would be as absurd as electing Dennis the Menace."

It's fun to watch the conflict between the WSJ news division and their editorial page.
The news division is all over Trump, those rabid neocons on the editorial page are going down hard.

Some good stuff in the NYT this morning, I especially like the first article by Maureen Dowd:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/proj ... p-egged-on

What do Donald Trump and a pumpkin have in common?
They're orange on the outside, hollow on the inside and should be tossed out in early November.

Wish I'd said that.

JimHow wrote:It's fun to watch the conflict between the WSJ news division and their editorial page.
The news division is all over Trump, those rabid neocons on the editorial page are going down hard.

Except for Bret Stephens. He's been vehemently anti Trump for ages and he's as Neocon as they come. Some of his pieces on "Global View" published every Tuesday could have easily even written by Bill Maher

Here's one he wrote in August after the Khan fiasco

http://www.wsj.com/articles/to-the-go-a ... 1470091421

I don't believe the WSJ has made an endorsement yet, has it?

By the way, the latest round of polls have Trump either tied or ahead.
I still say this thing isn't over yet.

Keep saying that, Jim. I'm not normally superstitious, but I'm starting to think you might swing this thing for Trump if you come around on Clinton's chances!

And we will definitely need to start a When Ted Cruz is Elected thread in three years to assure Hilary's re-election in 2020.

Hey, it seems BWE is rigging our elections!

Trump is ahead? Wow. The MSM is completely in agreement this morning that Trump is DBA (Dead Before Arrival) on election day after yesterday's debate. Why are they ignoring these polls you cite?

Well, the 3 national polls out today each lack some credibility, mostly by being online and/or robo-call based polls (and the LA Times one is quite weird/innovative methodologically, having a fixed 'panel' of the same people that they resurvey repeatedly).

All of the A+ rated polls with live caller and true random sampling all have HRC well ahead:
10/19 - Quinnipiac - Clinton +7
10/19 - Bloomberg - Clinton +9
10/19 - Economist/YouGov - Clinton +4
10/18 - FOX News - Clinton +6
10/18 - NBC News/SM - Clinton +6
10/18 - Boston Globe - Clinton +10

As we all know from our third grade civics class, the national vote means nothing.
The president is elected by the Electoral College.
And as we have known for more than half a century now, there are certain "swing states" that often decide elections.
Despite national polls that have gone up or down in recent months, Donald Trump has been either leading, tied, or within the margin of error in certain states in NUMEROUS polls, including:
FL, NC, NV, OH, IA.
There are other states that have been disturbingly close, including:
NH (yeah, yeah, I know, there was a poll with +15 for Hillary, I don't buy it), PA, ME-2.
We are SO lucky that VA and NH seem to have likely turned blue.
And it's still hard to see Trump winning in PA.

But if he wins OH, FL, NC, NV, IA, ME-2, and picks off ONE other state like either NH, NM, CO, PA, or WI, then he WINS.
Likely? Probably not. Impossible? I think it is more possible than the experts believe.

It is unwise to conclude that Hillary has this wrapped up, 19 days before the election.
Ask the opponents of Brexit.

I don't know about you guys, but I've been watching almost exclusively Fox.
Only because my side is winning, of course, and I am such a little man that I am just purely getting such a thrill out of seeing the Fox crowd suffering so much.
I start with Chris Matthews at 7. He gives me the red meat I need before I switch to Fox….
Then I go with O'Reilly at 8. O'Reilly, believe it or not, is actually not insufferable. I have no problems with him supporting Trump, who has come on his show many times and has had some tit interviews but he has also had some tough interviews… unlike the Hillster, who has not come on.
Then my girl Megyn comes on at 9. Very fair, very tough on both sides. It is clear she is voting for Hillary. I mean, how unfair can Fox be when the girl in the ultimate primetime slot -- 9pm EST -- is voting for HRC???? I like everything about Megyn Kelly… she's a lawyer, she's funny, tough, smart… but she's a girl… and she embraces it… she has a certain vulnerability… I think she's great.
Then I watch as much of Hannity as I can at 10 (which is usually about 20 minutes, depending on his guests), because I love to see him suffering so much.

There is no reason for me to watch Chris Hayes (who I hate… he sucks), or Rachel Maddow (who I like… she's grown on me), or Lawrence O'Donnell (eh.. he basically sucks).

O'Reilly predicted tonight that Hillary is going to win. Good lord my savior jesus christ my beloved lord, I pray he is right….

The Trumpster is bombing at the Al Smith dinner tonight OMG.

OMG he is being booed at the Al Smith dinner.
OMG!

Nobody is laughing.

Like NOBODY bombs at the Al Smith dinner, the friendliest crowd on the planet.
What the fuck is wrong with this lunatic?

Megyn ripping him.
This is historic.

Now Hillary is on the stage…

Another Hillary smack down at the Al Smith dinner.
You usually know at the Al Smith dinner who is going to win.

I put the over/under at 320 electoral college votes for Hillary as of today. And I say she goes over that.

Thoughts? Is 320 too low, too high, just right?

I say it will be less than that, but I will make my final prediction, as always, at 8Pm on the night before the election.

Hillary was right at home with that audience last night.
After her comedy routine she gave a good speech which effectively highlighted her character and at the same time contrasted it with her opponent's,
without ever sounding patronizing or phony.

Donald on the other hand, bombed badly.
HIs writers have no class and no skill at writing jokes,
Perfect for a man who desperately wishes he had class, and has almost no skill at telling jokes.

I've had a lot of clients with mental illnesses over the years but as I watch Donald I'm reminded of one client I had who had a severe pathological oppositional defiant disorder. You almost literally couldn't have a conversation with her. If you said yes she said no. If you said black she said white. I see that in the Donald, he is pathological. He is unable to function socially. He has an extreme case of narcissism. He is stuck in some infantil stage of development. I mean, he can't even go into a wonderful event like the Al Smuth dinner, long American tradition where political enemies, for a couple of hours, tell jokes and make fun of themselves and their opponents, all for a good cause. He told like three jokes before he just couldn't control himself, he had to start calling Hillary a criminal. This is a seriously, seriously disturbed individual.

JimHow wrote:I say it will be less than that, but I will make my final prediction, as always, at 8Pm on the night before the election.

The Skins won their last home game before the election and that means the incumbent party will win. This tracks back to 1940. If they lose, the challenger wins.

While Donald bombed at Al Smith dinner, Hillary was no less. Some of her jokes were also uncalled for. Both were "vicious" and "nasty". Instead of self-deprecating, they were more deprecating of the other...

The Donald's only self deprecating joke was actually by-proxy, when he threw his wife under the bus.

And I thought Hillary did a good job of giving it to Rudy G. with both barrels. He certainly looked displeased.

JimHow wrote:I've had a lot of clients with mental illnesses over the years but as I watch Donald I'm reminded of one client I had who had a severe pathological oppositional defiant disorder. You almost literally couldn't have a conversation with her. If you said yes she said no. If you said black she said white. I see that in the Donald, he is pathological. He is unable to function socially. He has an extreme case of narcissism. He is stuck in some infantil stage of development. I mean, he can't even go into a wonderful event like the Al Smuth dinner, long American tradition where political enemies, for a couple of hours, tell jokes and make fun of themselves and their opponents, all for a good cause. He told like three jokes before he just couldn't control himself, he had to start calling Hillary a criminal. This is a seriously, seriously disturbed individual.

Nevertheless, he is presidential candidate, and has countless enthusiastic supporters. A 'normal' Central-European like me can't understand this phenomenon...

Rudi Finkler wrote:..................... and has countless enthusiastic supporters. A 'normal' Central-European like me can't understand this phenomenon...

So did Nero, so did Stalin and so did Hitler. That's why we have checks and balances in a democracy to not fall back in situations like that. Now Trump wants to gut those, and one can only imagine what follows after that....

And I thought Hillary did a good job of giving it to Rudy G. with both barrels. He certainly looked displeased.

Yeah, old Rudy didn't look too happy last night.

Chateau Vin wrote:[
So did Nero, so did Stalin and so did Hitler. That's why we have checks and balances in a democracy to not fall back in situations like that. Now Trump wants to gut those, and one can only imagine what follows after that....

Unfortunately, mental illness seems to be contagious, as well as far-right wings politics... BTW, I remember an interesting old study from the eighties about the behaviour of 'upper-class' men. The more wealthy they are, the more noisy they are, the more vulgar, the more ruthless, and the more sexist -proportionally seen.

I keep reading everywhere that this election is over, but all I see in the swing state polls are even numbers.
I watched a Trump speech yesterday and saw him on Hannity.
He is like a caged animal right now.
He is rabid over the main stream media.
And so are his supporters.
They are really pissed off.
The big guy won among the students at a local high school here in the Maine second district.
http://m.sunjournal.com/news/lewiston-a ... el/2016028
Young people should be voting for Hillary.
I'm telling you right now, this race is going to be a nail biter before all is said and done.

HRC is going for the jugular now. She's campaigning to win all the swing states, and starting to talk about policies more, so that she can claim a mandate when she moves back into 1600 Pennsylvania. When someone is willing to work for the downballot cadres, they know they're in a good position.

Look at Utah. Conservatives there are going to take great glee in awarding the states electors to an independent than a putative GOP candidate. That is beyond stunning.

BTW, the municipal bond market has been richening up. Markets are now pricing in more of a total HRC sweep, and are pricing in risks of higher taxes. Higher taxes make tax exempt bonds more attractive, thus the muni rally. (Personally I think the credit of localities is misunderstood, so am gunshy about piling in)

PS: I don't think young people should be voting for either HRC or DJT. Both basically are unwilling to reform Social Security or Medicare, which are effectively gigantic generational wealth transfer schemes from the young/poor/working to the old/better off/retired. Obamacare effectively compounds that, and one can see from its semi voluntary nature (a modest penalty if non compliant), that young people can actually choose their own interests if its obvious to them.