Bordeaux Wine Enthusiasts

Watching Sarah endorsing Donald… like scratching a chalkboard.

Jeb Bush rises to a solid second place in latest NH poll… Hmmmm.

This is the nuttiest presidential campaign in my life time. If I bet on political campaigns, I would be just about ready to put cash on Trump. If Trump wins Iowa, he has a real shot at this given his polling in NH and SC. It could be March before anyone else might win a state against him (except Nevada perhaps). Cruz will be in trouble if Trump wins or ties in Iowa. At the same time, the crazy part is, despite 6 months of leading most polls and improving as a candidate, no one would be surprised if Trump's campaign suddenly imploded.

JimHow wrote:Jeb Bush rises to a solid second place in latest NH poll… Hmmmm.

Mostly at Cruz's expense and Rubio's to a lesser degree. Did Cruz peak too soon? Amazing that the GOP seems to prefer Trump to Cruz. I'm surprised at how little traction Rubio had a gotten so far.

It'll be winnowed down to about 5-6 Republicans in a couple weeks. Who the hell knows what's gonna happen. I still find it hard to believe Trump is going to win even the nomination.

Jeb has really done a number on Rubio. Which is fine with me. I can't stomach that phony little twerp.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk ... MDQxMTg3S0

I haven't been able to find any footage of the guy throwing tomatoes at Trump. Was it not on film?

JimHow wrote:Who the hell knows what's gonna happen.

The above is the only statement in this thread you can take to the bank. The speculation is fascinating, but I guarantee we'll have at least one "didn't see that coming" moment between now and the conventions.

A wild prediction: some semblance of party "regulars" will find a way to come to together to avoid a Trumpageddon election for the Republicans.

I'm supporting Frank Underwood

How about Jim How on the BWE ticket?

Right now, I'd go even money on Trump winning the nomination over any other individual candidate. I'd still take the field over Trump though.

Jim How for Governor '18.

I think it'll end up being Hillary… Yuck.

But I can't vote in the Maine gubernatorial race...

So as a Democrat, Jim, who would you like to see in the White House?

Of the remaining Democrats, Bernie.
I could see myself voting for Bloomberg but my fear is that if he runs Paul Ryan will be the next president.

I supported Hillary 8 years ago and am for her now.
I have concerns about Sanders' revolutionary past and socialist agenda. If he gets the nomination (I think highly unlikely), they'll come at him hard over his past.
I could live with Bloomberg.

She's so disingenuous though. A classic finger to the wind politician. I hate phonies. I'll hold my nose and vote for her if I have to, but it's sad that these are the best choices we have out there.

Yeah!!

Frank and Clair would run rings around that lot...

( I meant to copy in Arv's post)

Seriously though I hope Trump gets the nomination. It will be great theatre watching him go head to head with Hillary.

I think she will bust his balls.

I didn't see the debate last night but it sounds like Jeb had a good night:

http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cass ... omes-alive

I like Jeb, it's too bad he's such a religious zealot.

This op-Ed is a good summary of how I feel about Hillary these days:

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/op ... times.com/

Jim, you were looking for video of the tomato throwing incident. You have to watch closely at the 3-4 second mark and then the 9 second mark. It appears to come from the left side.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=p ... GjW5HSOpiU

Thanks Jon.
He's got a little of that square jawed Il Duce thing going on, doesn't he?

Re: President Trump

Postby JimHow on Fri Jan 29, 2016 6:12 am

She's so disingenuous though. A classic finger to the wind politician. I hate phonies. I'll hold my nose and vote for her if I have to, but it's sad that these are the best choices we have out there.

Here is an article from New York Times that focuses on the ambivalence many are feeling about her. If you are not a subscriber, you still can access several articles a month.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/opini ... ght-region

Ha I posted the same article. It's a good article.

With respect, this sums up nicely how I feel abouf Hillary:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/0 ... more-39512

I would add that she isn't her husband, for better or for worse.

Of course, this doesn't mean she isn't a finger-to-the-wind politician like Jim says. And while I do wish she would trust her instincts more (and she shows good ones when her back is to the wall... YMMV), I think that such a trait is the norm amongst most politicians.

I'd add that I know supporting Hillary is not a generally popular public stance, and I accept that, but I find myself admiring her. And I think she has the experience, brains and savvy (and policies) to make the best president amongst the field.

I don't really know Bernie, but I tend to agree with Krugman's take that he's not really proposing realistic plans given thr political divisions in Washington.

This Repiblican caucus tonight is yuge.
If Trump wins Iowa he could run the table.

Ugh I've got a feeling Rubio is gonna do well tonight.

So far, pretty interesting early numbers in both caucuses.

Indeed. At 9:30 pm eastern time, with 37% of precincts reporting, the Donald Trump poll numbers have yet to materialize into real numbers.

I think Iowans in the end are realizing that Trump has not been a serious candidate, that he can't win the general election. This is a big night for Rubio. Just as I feared. Ugh.

I was just about to comment about Jim's prediction on Rubio playing out. It looks like he could end up over 20%.

Rubio is going to emerge tonight as the establishment candidate.
Neither Cruz nor Trump can win the general election.

This is a yuge defeat for The Donald.

Jesus, Rubio is flirting with second place.
I'm terrified of Rubio.
I honestly think he could be the next POTUS.

Iowa to Trump: You're fired!

The media is gushing over Cruz but I share Jim's perspective with respect to Rubio.

It's a long race and the horses have just left the gate.

Rubio's speech shows me why Jim feels as he does.

Iowa was basically a 3-way tie. 538.com says Cruz will get 8 delegates and Trump and Rubio with 7 each. The real game is how it affects perceptions of the candidates, with Rubio getting a big bounce, Trump diminished by some yet-to-be-determined degree, and Cruz living to fight another day.

Now on to New Hampshire. Clearly, it is DDay for Bush, Christie, Kasich. I think Christie and Kasich are likely to drop out if they don't place strongly in New Hampshire. Bush has enough money that he'll hang on until at least Super Tuesday.

But New Hampshire is now really all about how Trump does. If he disappoints his polling again, and only wins by a small margin over Rubio or some others, his chance to run the table will be gone. Then an establishment-friendly candidate like Rubio becomes so much stronger. Such great theater! But let's not coronate Rubio yet, there's still a lot of intrigue to come.

Donald Trump is toast. He may still win NH but Rubio will again do well, far ahead of Jeb.
And the governors and Fiorina will be out after SC.
And soon it will be down to Cruz and Rubio, and Rubio will win because he will be perceived as more mainstream, even though he is probably the most conservative of them all. A wolf in sheep's clothing. And then in the general election he will win Florida and Virginia, and we will be biting our nails as the late numbers come in from the suburbs of Cleveland, Akron, Cincinnati, and Dayton.
Ugh. My biggest nightmare. We really needed Trump to win tonight.

Rubio is dangerous. He is totally bought in to a hawkish neoconservative foreign policy, that is where his advisors come from. He is kind of an empty suit with some scary people behind him.

Honestly, rather have Trump as the nominee, and that is saying something.