Bordeaux Wine Enthusiasts

Hope we can break the fever come November. It all rides on Jon Northway’s Michigan, as far as I can tell from my interactive electoral college map.

I was in Manhattan yesterday, there were four U.S. Presidents on the other side of the street.
I'm in Washington now, going to meet up with some BWEers tomorrow night for some fine Bordeaux.
Every way I cut my interactive 270 electoral college map, it comes down to a frighteningly fairly narrow path through Michigan for the Democrats.
It seems to me that Orange Head has more paths to victory through Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, you get the picture.
My friend from China literally started crying the first time I took her past the north lawn of the White House.
I hope we don't lose this in November. We're counting on you, JC Northway!

We are counting on the great state of Michigan, Mr. Northway, to save the American democracy experiment as we know it, and perhaps the health and welfare of the other 8 billion inhabitants on the planet.

No pressure, I know, but I'll buy you a nice Felsina Rancia from the vintage of you choice if you, The Gretch, and the rest of the state help us out. I promise I'll do the best I can with my one little electoral vote here in the second congressional district in Maine....

I am feeling quietly optimistic that we can deliver the great state of Michigan to Biden in November. If enough local crazies keep making the news it will be easier. Just a couple of days ago, a local state legislator in the Republican camp posted on X that he had seen charter flights arriving at the Detroit airport, and the passengers boarded three buses. He said that it was illegals being released into the city. It was actually three college basketball teams arriving in the city for the NCAA tournament!

Interesting piece in today's Detroit Free Press about "Gretch"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/run-presiden ... 27023.html

She’s going to have her work cut out for her. The American political landscape is strewn with the failures of governors who were super stars in their respective states, wrote their political biographies, thought their message was going to appeal nationally, etc. See most recently the douche from Florida, Niki Haley, and others. It’s been a fairly even split between governors and senators since Ike as the best path to the White House. A lot of “experts” thought the Florida Man was a sure bet and watched him shrivel before our eyes in about a week. Plus she of course is going to have to deal with discrimination against her gender in a country that has never elected a person who identifies as female. I like her, I hope she wins, but it’s not going to be handed to her. She seems very intelligent and very tough, two traits that appeal to me, but so does Klobuchar, and she didn’t get very far. Go Gretch!

First she has to deliver Michigan in November!

Go Detroit, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Atlanta.

I still can only chuckle when I remember the red faced Orange Man after midnight during the last election, calling for a stop of the count in Michigan, knowing what was coming. Yes, Orange Man, you won Michigan if we don’t count the votes in Detroit and other urban areas.

If you haven't seen this Mr. Flaneur I thought it was quite witty....

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/22/opin ... tates.html

This Trump prosecution stinks to high heaven, it is going to backfire against the left.

The New York criminal trial and civil penalty trial both seem like ridiculous cases that would never have been brought against any ordinary individual. They are a terrible precedent of the use of the legal system to negate the peoples' right to choose their candidate in an open election.

With that said I believe that Trump should lose the 2024 election fair and square. The economy was worse in 2022 than now and the Rs barely managed to squeak out taking the House. I think if the 81 year old Biden had stepped aside for an attractive younger candidate like Gavin Newsom the Ds would be winning by a lot. I actually find it amazing that Biden is insisting on running.

Seriously, Joe could have had a nice strong James Polk like one term presidency, saved us from Trump, and moved back to Delaware with a nice four year job well done. But no.

Alex R and I have articulated the view that it would be a disaster for humankind and Planet Earth if Trump wins.

As far as I can gather if OH gets convicted on any of the charges that will definitely help Sleepy Joe - as would Kennedy entering the race - but how much is Biden going to be hurt by the young voters not turning up in protest over his unconditional backing of Israel?

Alex R and I have articulated the view that it would be a disaster for humankind and Planet Earth if Trump wins.

It's looking bad for humankind Mr. Flaneur:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/28/politics ... index.html

As far as I can gather if OH gets convicted on any of the charges that will definitely help Sleepy Joe

See, I disagree. I think these criminal charges are energizing his base and many people, myself included, think that a lot of this is a witch hunt that would not be brought against others. They appear politically motivated.

Biden held onto classified documents as well and he wasn't prosecuted. The Atlanta prosecution is of course a fiasco, those prosecutors should be disbarred or at least reprimanded. Jan 6th was a riot not an insurrection, they are prosecuting him for giving a speech and telling his followers to march down Constitution Ave. The real crime was the lack of security at the Capitol. And this current New York prosecution, holy shit, what a joke. They are prosecuting him for misdemeanor falsifying business records, a crime whose statute of limitations has expired but the only reason why they are able to prosecute it is because they are saying the time-barred conduct is connected to some unspecified federal or state felony. Talk about trying to fit square pegs into round holes. If they have evidence that Orange is giving away secrets to Putin or was calling the Proud Boys on Jan 6th, then I'll change my mind. But it's just not there, no matter how much the mainstream media and the rest of the left want it to be.

That’s you opinion Jim.

“The real crime was the lack of security at the Capitol”

Are you serious?

As far as I know opinion polls suggest that if Trump is convicted that will erode his vote among moderate Republicans, and will hurt him.

So that if Biden can still stand up and still speak come November he is perhaps the favourite.

But what I asked here and don’t know the answer to is how events in the ME will hurt Biden, and recent heavy handed tactics to crush dissent on University campuses?

Ha ha Comte, as Christopher Hitchens was fond of saying, I don’t know why I would give anyone else’s opinion but my own. I hope and pray that my opinion is wrong. I was at the airport the other day in Boston listening to four Trumpers at the next table at Legal Seafood while I was having a lobster roll, complaining about the economy, and immigration, and how much better things were when the orange man was in there, complete Fox News brainwashing, these folks would literally still vote for the guy if he went out and shot people on Fifth Ave. The campus protests are starting to remind of 1968….

"There's something happening here, what it is ain't exactly clear"

To quote David Crosby, I believe from an interview about writing the song Don't Let it Bring you Down, let's hope that it "sorta starts off real slow and then fizzles out altogether"

I think the arithmetic for winning the electoral college and retaining the senate this year is particularly grim. I just don't understand the malaise about the economy. Back when I was in politics an eon ago it was all about jobs and the unemployment rate. Today we have a workforce shortage. It is a dynamic that is alien to me. Fox News has brainwashed half the population. There is something different going on here, it's not the usual calculus based on the state of the economy.

I think the economy is a delayed reaction from the double whammy of inflation and interest rates which is taking time to wear off. Houses are almost unaffordable right now and so are home equity loans. Then layer on that a full 20% increase in consumer prices over Biden’s term, which doesn’t really take into account the full change in the costs of homeownership. It’s a lot.

With that said I feel like if Biden had stood aside for a young and dynamic figure to make a new case to the public the Dems would be favored pretty clearly right now. Reminds me a bit of 2016 when Hilary insisted on running even though she wasn’t really the person for the moment, but even more egregious

I would add that if you are an older person who owns their own home (probably purchased at much lower interest rates and/or fully paid off) and has enough disposable income to spend thousands on wine you are guaranteed to have zero visceral understanding of cost of living issues

marcs, if one is an older person, one has already lived through mortgage rates and inflation over 12%. So unless the older person in question had dementia, most can relate indeed viscerally relate to the issues.

I guess my de facto cognitive assumption is that such memories fade fast and one’s perspective is determined by current circumstances but you’re right that might not be true at all!