2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

User avatar
DavidG
Posts: 8280
Joined: Sat Nov 22, 2008 1:12 pm
Location: Maryland
Contact:

2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by DavidG »

I'm 138 days into my freeze, with no plans to buy 2016 Bordeaux. But It's about that time of year for the Bordeaux futures machine to get revved up. Here are Elin McCoy's top 18 wines, top 10 values, and 4 to avoid.
User avatar
Nicklasss
Posts: 6384
Joined: Tue Jan 27, 2009 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Nicklasss »

Yes for me. But maybe I'll limit myself to wine under 80-100 $ so the choice will be tiny. I'm expecting high prices, as even 2013 was not that cheap here.

Nic
User avatar
Gerry M.
Posts: 847
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 2:51 am
Location: Tyngsboro, MA
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Gerry M. »

Yes, but probably only half bottles and a few left bankers. I'm getting too old for this.
User avatar
JimHow
Posts: 20106
Joined: Thu Nov 20, 2008 10:49 pm
Location: Lewiston, Maine, United States
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimHow »

I'm sure I'll buy a few of the usual suspects, depending on prices.
I drink my wines young.
User avatar
Chateau Vin
Posts: 1522
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2011 3:55 pm
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Chateau Vin »

I might dabble on 2016s a bit, but will be on the lookout for 2015s if the retailers try to push off the 2015s at cheaper prices to make space for 2016s...
User avatar
stefan
Posts: 6224
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2009 9:08 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by stefan »

No.
User avatar
Blanquito
Posts: 5923
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2009 9:24 pm

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Blanquito »

Yes, but really only because it's a birthyear in the Martin household. So I'll probably aim high for a few special bottles.
User avatar
JimHow
Posts: 20106
Joined: Thu Nov 20, 2008 10:49 pm
Location: Lewiston, Maine, United States
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimHow »

I will buy at least a few bottles each, if they are good and the prices rational, of Giscours, Calon Segur, Gruaud Larose, Barde Haut, Cantemerle, Leoville Barton, d'Issan, etc., etc., etc. It's just another vintage in the march forward of life.
User avatar
Comte Flaneur
Posts: 4863
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2009 9:05 pm
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Comte Flaneur »

The first release here was Tour St -Christophe at £250ib a 39% increase on the 2015, which I bought on the basis of BWE enablement. The pound is 15% weaker compared to a year ago, so I am not expecting too many bargains.

I suspect there is still an awful lot of Bordeaux wine out there stacked roof high in air conditioned warehouses.
User avatar
dstgolf
Posts: 2083
Joined: Tue Jan 27, 2009 12:00 am
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by dstgolf »

I`ve said no but who knows when the release comes out along with pricing. Might go for some of the lesser early drinkers as long as the price is right which might be wishful thinking..... ;)
Danny
User avatar
AKR
Posts: 5234
Joined: Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:33 am
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by AKR »

It seems like it will be hard to sell these without Parker ratings.

So far - although I like Neil's coverage especially his exposition - it doesn't look like he has market moving powers.

I think its madness that agricultural producers are withholding stocks, under the theory that they are entitled to CPI+++ increases in their inventory / principal / capital accounts.

If Archer Daniels Midlands told you they were stockpiling their 2016 corn syrup* stocks, would you think management was sage, or insane?

But that's what many of these estates are doing now, especially the ones owned by financial conglomerates, like insurance/holdings co's.

My interest in 2016 will depend on reviews, dollar strength, and comparable alternatives like 2012R, 2014L, and 2015s in bottle.

* value added agricultural product, which in my mind is what wine is -- I don't think Bordeaux is so far removed from being a commodity, no matter what purveyors tell the nouveau riche.
User avatar
Comte Flaneur
Posts: 4863
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2009 9:05 pm
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Comte Flaneur »

Here is a write up from Farr Vintners the top UK merchant for Bordeaux. Over the years they have been impressively reliable in their vintage assessments and recommendations. For example back in 1990 they were shouting from the rooftops to buy 1989 Cantermerle at £135ib.

Re: Arv's post we don't have Parker anymore to dish out his superlatives and hyperbole. Sutcliffe still does and has ramped up his scores even more but no-one takes much notice. Neal is more measured and cautious, but one thing we definitely have seen is a dialling back in the alcohol and extract.

That was perhaps most noticeable in the 2014 vintage so in my opinion it is a shame that these three vintages ('14, '15, '16) didn't come a decade earlier. One criticism of the 2005s is that they can be borderline over-extracted, especially on the RB, which does not seem to be the case with 2015 and 2016, judging by the reports.

FV write up (Henry Matson):

Now the vintage had been written there was, once again, plenty of hype both prior to and during our trip. This was a promotional tour for Bordeaux after all. Comparisons to 2005, 2009 and 2010 were rife and “potentially the best ever” was a phrase often over used (groan). That said 2016 is undeniably a very good to great vintage. The quality is more homogenous than 2015 from left to right bank and top to bottom of the Médoc. The northern Médoc did not suffer from detrimental rains like it did in 2015 and is one of the more successful regions in 2016, whereas the Margaux appellation did not quite hit the heights of 2015.

On the right bank there were plenty of stunning wines both in Pomerol and St Emilion. The biggest surprise was that a number of wines I usually find bruising and over extracted were toned down in this vintage and even displayed something resembling elegance (in the context of their style). Perhaps the message has got through to the owners that with new tasters and critics comes a new recipe. From a personal point of view, this is a good thing.

What was very noticeable throughout our trip was that this is a vintage that really spoke of individual terroir and that communes had a clearly defined expression.

The vintage is characterised by pure, precise fruit, a supple texture, velvety ripe tannins and refreshing acidity. The best wines do have real power at their core and demonstrate an “iron fist in and velvet glove” approach. The wines are very structured with high tannins, apparently the IPT levels (a measure of total taninns in the wine), are the highest on record at many properties, higher even than 2010. However, most properties managed to achieve such a level of ripeness in their tannins that in some cases they are barely perceptible. This, combined with the high, refreshing acidity on the finish gives the wines a real sense of balance and elegance. Alcohol levels also contribute to this great balance as the wines have returned to a more classic level of 13% to 13.5% ABV. ‘Harmony’ is a word that I repeatedly wrote in my tasting notes.

It is hard to pick out a previous vintage that is similar to 2016. It was not a hot vintage (just dry) as many of the great years (’82, ’90, ’05, ’09 and ’10) are, it is a more classic, cooler vintage. It does not have the opulence of 2009 nor the power or density of 2010. Nor is it similar to 2005 since it is not characterised by hard drying tannins since they are so soft and well integrated. Both the 2005 and 2010 were tough to taste en primeur whereas many of the 2016s are so balanced and resolved that they feel like they could almost be drunk now.

Many winemakers referred to the 1996 and 1986 vintages as comparable. 2016 has the classicism and freshness of 1996 though with sweeter fruit and more density and the density and power of 1986 but with far better managed and riper tannins. In both cases the quality of winemaking now means the purity of fruit in this current vintage shines through far more than it would have done back then. Likewise the tannins are now so smooth, silky and well integrated that they are far less perceptible than in years gone by.

So a tough one to place but an excellent vintage nonetheless. Classically styled and beautifully balanced defined by purity, precision and finesse.
User avatar
AKR
Posts: 5234
Joined: Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:33 am
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by AKR »

did you mean Suckling when you wrote Sutcliffe?
User avatar
tiesface
Posts: 54
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:55 am
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by tiesface »

I will dipping into some of the usual pauillacs and st. juliens, depending on the price
User avatar
DavidG
Posts: 8280
Joined: Sat Nov 22, 2008 1:12 pm
Location: Maryland
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by DavidG »

Ian, the Farr vintage write-ups have always been interesting, well-written and often more grounded in reality than some of the presumably less-conflicted critics'. Thanks for posting that.
AKR wrote: I think its madness that agricultural producers are withholding stocks, under the theory that they are entitled to CPI+++ increases in their inventory / principal / capital accounts.

If Archer Daniels Midlands told you they were stockpiling their 2016 corn syrup* stocks, would you think management was sage, or insane?

But that's what many of these estates are doing now, especially the ones owned by financial conglomerates, like insurance/holdings co's.

My interest in 2016 will depend on reviews, dollar strength, and comparable alternatives like 2012R, 2014L, and 2015s in bottle.

* value added agricultural product, which in my mind is what wine is -- I don't think Bordeaux is so far removed from being a commodity, no matter what purveyors tell the nouveau riche.
Of course you're right about this Arv but houses like Latour are speculating on appreciation. They are playing the commodities market with their own stock. Sage management? No. Looks good while the positive returns are coming in. But they are in business to produce wine, not to speculate on commodities. Venturing outside one's core business can be risky. But if anyone can get away with it, Latour can.
User avatar
Comte Flaneur
Posts: 4863
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2009 9:05 pm
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Comte Flaneur »

AKR wrote:did you mean Suckling when you wrote Sutcliffe?
Yes indeed sorry Freudian slip
User avatar
Nicklasss
Posts: 6384
Joined: Tue Jan 27, 2009 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Nicklasss »

Have you read that JimHow: mix of 1996 and 1986... You're doomed. You'll buy heavily.

Can you imagine how taste 1996 + 1986 Lafite? Or 1996 + 1986 Léoville Las Cases? Or even the 1996 + 1986 Lynch Bages? Or 1996 + 1986 Cos d'Estournel? Finally, 1996 + 1996 Margaux?

It is over Jim, don't try to resist, it is useless. These wines will make you forget the "2005 vintage Burgundy wines", the 2002 Left Bank and even the 1989 Lynch or 1988 Dal Forno!

Nic
User avatar
wine_drinker
Posts: 14
Joined: Thu Apr 13, 2017 10:09 pm
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by wine_drinker »

If one believes the trade chatter, 2016 is a strong year in a row, following 2015. I'm having fatigue of these back-to-back good years.
User avatar
AKR
Posts: 5234
Joined: Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:33 am
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by AKR »

DavidG wrote:Ian, the Farr vintage write-ups have always been interesting, well-written and often more grounded in reality than some of the presumably less-conflicted critics'. Thanks for posting that.
AKR wrote: I think its madness that agricultural producers are withholding stocks, under the theory that they are entitled to CPI+++ increases in their inventory / principal / capital accounts.

If Archer Daniels Midlands told you they were stockpiling their 2016 corn syrup* stocks, would you think management was sage, or insane?

But that's what many of these estates are doing now, especially the ones owned by financial conglomerates, like insurance/holdings co's.

My interest in 2016 will depend on reviews, dollar strength, and comparable alternatives like 2012R, 2014L, and 2015s in bottle.

* value added agricultural product, which in my mind is what wine is -- I don't think Bordeaux is so far removed from being a commodity, no matter what purveyors tell the nouveau riche.
Of course you're right about this Arv but houses like Latour are speculating on appreciation. They are playing the commodities market with their own stock. Sage management? No. Looks good while the positive returns are coming in. But they are in business to produce wine, not to speculate on commodities. Venturing outside one's core business can be risky. But if anyone can get away with it, Latour can.
I can actually understand places like LLC holding back stock. They have some hope that perhaps one day they will be in a more elevated circle, and be accorded first growth status (and prices). So that could be a step function for their wines. Instantly going from ~$200 to (just making up random numbers) $500 on stock they can swiftly push out to the auction / broker market as ex chateau. Maybe for them that's an ok bet.

I don't know what Latour assigns as a cost of capital to their enterprise. Some restaurant chains run their wine programs as distinct PnL centers, with the expectation of 20% returns. That seems unrealistic, but lets say Latour assigns a 7-8% cost of capital. So if they are holding back wines, that means they really expect their wines to double every decade in price*, and quadruple over two decades. Maybe those historical price increases that made sense in a world where the supply of Latour actually shrank, because people drank the stuff, so shaking out whatever supplies was left required ever increasing prices.

* compared to what they could have realized today, and that's pretending that storage/insurance/safekeeping has zero costs for them as well.
User avatar
brodway
Posts: 416
Joined: Tue Feb 03, 2009 12:34 am
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

With the dollar strength and lack of Parker's enthusiastic 100 point reviews to push prices higher, we may see some reasonable pricing for 2016 futures.

If i see there are 4th and 5th growths trading at under $50 a bottle, i'd probably buy a few cases and put them away. I don't expect some of the more prolific names to be inexpensive, but names like Cantemerle, D'Issan, Lagrange, Branaire Ducru, Beychevelle(which i hear has come on strongly of late) and even Grand Puy Lacoste can be good values if there's lack of hype in the marketplace. I'd also consider Leoville Poyferre, Leoville Barton and Smith Haut Lafitte if they don't have a super premium attached to them.

With the success of the 2009, 2010 and 2015 vintages, 2016 may be overlooked, as the great vintage pitch is getting stale. Opportunity to purchase superb Bordeaux at reasonable prices aren't always heard in the same sentence.
User avatar
brodway
Posts: 416
Joined: Tue Feb 03, 2009 12:34 am
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

Also i've read that Haut Bailly has been coming into stride with some great wines of late....both the 2014 and 2015 are getting excellent reviews, so i'd be looking at that one too
User avatar
brodway
Posts: 416
Joined: Tue Feb 03, 2009 12:34 am
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

forgetting Pontet Canet has been on a roll too.....doubt that one will be under $50 but will be looking for it
User avatar
Comte Flaneur
Posts: 4863
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2009 9:05 pm
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Comte Flaneur »

Brodway - if I get involved you have picked out some of the names I would be targeting:

D'Issan, Beychevelle, Leoville-Barton, Haut-Bailly, possibly Talbot too...right Bank is always trickier.
User avatar
JimHow
Posts: 20106
Joined: Thu Nov 20, 2008 10:49 pm
Location: Lewiston, Maine, United States
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimHow »

The only one of those wines I see being under $50 brodway is Cantemerle. The rest of those wines have all been well over $50 in the past decade, even in less than stellar years.
User avatar
brodway
Posts: 416
Joined: Tue Feb 03, 2009 12:34 am
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

Jim

probably a bit of wishful thinking. D'Issan is still $55 for the 2015....Grand Puy Lacoste is $65.....

i'd like to see the initial pricing...dollar euro is pretty much as close to parity as it has been in many years
User avatar
AKR
Posts: 5234
Joined: Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:33 am
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by AKR »

Perhaps Madame Le Pen will help US consumers out a little with the USD/EUR rates.

She needs to stop talking about the past though.

I just hope she doesn't put export controls on Bordeaux though.

Another female populist, Christina Fernandez Kirchner of Argentina, slapped massive taxes on agricultural exports (soybeans, beef, etc.) to punish the rural areas, deemed insufficiently loyal.
User avatar
DavidG
Posts: 8280
Joined: Sat Nov 22, 2008 1:12 pm
Location: Maryland
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by DavidG »

If Le Pen wins, even if I were buying Bordeaux futures, wine pricing would not be my first worry.

The hype is already building for 2016 being one of the best ever. Even without Parker's influence, I see a good chance that prices will hold or increase over 2015.

Are futures still worth it? In recent years many of the wines have been no more on release than en primeur.
User avatar
brodway
Posts: 416
Joined: Tue Feb 03, 2009 12:34 am
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

i haven't compared the 2015 futures prices and current prices of the same 2015's after some very solid reviews of the vintage have been written, but i suspect there hasn't been any real upside pressure in prices unless its an anomaly where a producer hits one out of the park for that particular year.....and in that instance i don't mind paying a little more
User avatar
Racer Chris
Posts: 2042
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2016 2:41 pm
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Racer Chris »

I started receiving 2016 futures emails from Total Wine this week.
Day 1 - Cos d'Estournel
Day 2 - Haut Bergey ($23/bottle) and some sauternes
User avatar
JimS
Posts: 104
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2016 6:43 pm
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimS »

Being tempted by Tour St.-Christophe.... at $25ish/btl with decent reviews and spare-no-expense new owners looking to build a brand, it seems like a relative bargain. Minimal risk to this purchase imo.

One thing I have been reading that has been mentioned somewhat consistently by a few reviewers (and the FV mention earlier in this thread) of the vintage are that there's less extraction / less new oak; if they really are turning the corner on this, it's a welcome development in my eyes and I hope they continue down this road.

I plan on buying a fair amount of this vintage based on the style, which seems right in my wheelhouse of the types of wines I usually enjoy the best. Will likely keep my buys to the under $75/btl crowd with the occasional splurge; D'Issan and Haut Bailly seem like must-buys to me based on their trajectories, and I've really enjoyed some GPLs lately too, which seems modestly undervalued (delivers above px point more times than not imo).
User avatar
AKR
Posts: 5234
Joined: Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:33 am
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by AKR »

There is a thread on WB about some guy who got stiffed for half his TW futures orders, in custom formats.

Might be worth reading that if one is considering them as a vendor.
User avatar
DavidG
Posts: 8280
Joined: Sat Nov 22, 2008 1:12 pm
Location: Maryland
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by DavidG »

I thought he didn't get the formats he ordered from TW, but was offered the wine in 750s instead?
User avatar
brodway
Posts: 416
Joined: Tue Feb 03, 2009 12:34 am
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

i'm assuming TW isn't Time Warner
User avatar
JimHow
Posts: 20106
Joined: Thu Nov 20, 2008 10:49 pm
Location: Lewiston, Maine, United States
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimHow »

Good points, JimS, although I've been hearing about how Tour St. Christophe is "building their brand" for about three years now. And yet their wines are still going for $25-ish. Like you I have bought some (2015s) en futuro. But I have yet to taste a drop of this magical $25 masterpiece. So I retain a healthy skepticism.
User avatar
DavidG
Posts: 8280
Joined: Sat Nov 22, 2008 1:12 pm
Location: Maryland
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by DavidG »

TW = Total Wine
User avatar
tiesface
Posts: 54
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:55 am
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by tiesface »

Galloni and Neal Martin scores released this week. Seems like a very good vintage and more classically styled than 2009, 2015, or 2010. NM's reviews seem reasonable and less hyperbolic than the early reviews.
User avatar
DavidG
Posts: 8280
Joined: Sat Nov 22, 2008 1:12 pm
Location: Maryland
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by DavidG »

For a "pointless" article on 2016 Bordeaux, check out Neal Martin's Spirit Animals piece.
https://winejournal.robertparker.com/th ... deaux-2016
User avatar
JimS
Posts: 104
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2016 6:43 pm
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimS »

NM's write up yesterday on 2016 was pretty good. His enthusiasm for (and reasonably fair release pricing on) Cos convinced me to pick up a few out of curiosity. I'm not a fan of the 2009 (which was overdone for my tastes) but liked the 2010 and many back vintages, so I'm hoping for a more classically styled version this time around.

This is the first year I've really dabbled in futures, so I lack perspective, but looking at retailer inventory levels on the few wines that have been released, it seems like they are selling at a decent clip, esp after the NM write up yesterday....

And Jim, I definitely hear you. I have yet to try the wine myself too, so I'm hoping it proves to be a savvy purchase and not a let down...trying not to get my expectations too high.
User avatar
AKR
Posts: 5234
Joined: Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:33 am
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by AKR »

No matter what the trade breathlessly emails out, there is lot of Cos made.
User avatar
Comte Flaneur
Posts: 4863
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2009 9:05 pm
Contact:

Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Comte Flaneur »

Neal Martin has scored Beychevelle and Haut-Bailly 96-98 which is bad news for my wallet.
Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], Google [Bot] and 17 guests