2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

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DavidG
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by DavidG »

Have Neal Martin's reviews ever influenced prices? Any evidence that they are now?
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JimHow
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimHow »

This is the first year in over 20 years that I have let my Wine Advocate subscription lapse.
I used to get the renewal in the mail and send back the $75 check.
Now you have to go on line and purchase your subscription, too much work in my busy life, and providing an excuse not to renew.
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DavidG
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by DavidG »

I let my WA subscription lapse a few years ago. I hadn't been using it as a buying guide for some time and mostly kept it for the bulletin board. That became too inactive to make it worth renewing after they drove away or locked out most of the participants.

My question was in response to Ian's comment about Neil Martin's scores and pricing. Parker's no longer reviewing Bordeaux and it remains to be seen if any of the other critics come close to having his influence. I suppose producers and retailers could key off of any high score. I have seen that in ads but does it drive price increases? Martin and Galloni would seem to have the most gravitas and widest following, but Suckling has the higjest scores.

Did any specific critic have an effect on 2015 futures prices? That wss a desirable year.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Comte Flaneur »

Perhaps not David at least I hope not! But I wouldn't be surprised if the opening price of Beychevelle is marked up a bit on his 96-98 score.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by wine_drinker »

The critics' ratings are less and less reliable. I hardly look at them anymore. I just bought 1 case of 2016 Branaire Ducru futures. Plan to buy selectively my favorite labels.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by DavidG »

I wouldn't be surprised either Ian, particularly if multiple critics score it as high. Sucking gave Beychevelle "only" 94-95 points. That ought to be considered an excellent score but from Suckling perhaps it's damning with faint praise.

I agree W_D, critics' ratings got less useful the more I got to know what I liked. The descriptions were still occasionally helpful in trying to decide what futures to buy without trying. Even the descriptions are at times very inconsistent between critics. With barrel tastings there are the variables of both critic and sample inconsistencies. It's maybe less important now that the Chateaux have taken most of the financial incentive out of buying en primeur. Just buy on release, though depending on where you can shop some of the sought after wines are harder to find later on.

Those who like to compare scores from the various critics might find Bordoverview an interesting site. They aggregate scores here: http://www.bordoverview.com.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Tom In DC »

Looked at the bordoverview.com list. What's amazing is how many times Eric Boissenot's name is listed at the person responsible for the wine!
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimS »

Montrose? Another one that seems reasonably priced imo considering the score, what 2009/2010 go for, and flat YoY pricing....I keep watching the USD slowly fade, and as a US consumer, I still think it's worth snagging a fair amount. I keep hearing "fools rush in", "scarcity is manufactured", etc. from many with far more prior experience than myself so maybe I'm thinking about this whole value proposition completely wrong, but nonetheless, I continue to wade in.....
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimHow »

Agreed, JimS. From what I'm seeing of pricing, and from what I'm hearing about the quality on the left bank, and the lower alcohol levels, and the fact that these wines will be about 15 years old when I'm 72ish and still hopefully drinking Bordeaux wines for at least another decade or so, I'm inclined to go fairly big into 2016. 2016 Cantemerle at $32? Count me in for a case... or two.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

Agree Jim....if i can buy futures for $30-$60 at the quality level the 2016's are predicted to be, its a bargain when you compare to other US Cabernet blends at same quality level.

I don't see any offers of the wines i'm interested in......where are you buying these days?

Thank goodness i only got stiffed for 3 cases of wine at Premier Cru and was able to have my credit card reverse one of those cases. Being somewhat selective in the outfits i choose for futures
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimHow »

Emil:

Looks like there have been some interesting 2016 Bordeauxs released to date, including:

Branaire, 54
Cos, 155
d'Armhaillac, 42
Tertre, 39
Lagune, 47
Labegorce, 30 (especially interesting)
Prieure, 42
And that crazy Tour St. Dildo stuff at $26ish.
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Gerry M.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Gerry M. »

It's scary but I'm getting drawn into it. I'm also looking at the Labegorce, it's looking like the QPR of the vintage. I'm also looking at Talbot @$60.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimHow »

What I listed was the Bassins list.
at Zachys they have the 96 point Cantemerle at $32, which seems like a no brainer to me.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

the 2000 Du Tertre was interesting....i think i paid something like $25 and drank my last bottle last year and that was a great bargain. I'm not a buyer at 39 as i'm hoping to pick up more classic Left bank

La Lagune is probably a value at $47, but i've chosen to be selective with a half dozen names and hoping to land the following. Will not pay up if pricing gets absurd.

Grand Puy Lacoste
Leoville Poyferre
or
Leoville Barton
Pichon Baron
Beychevelle
Calon Segur
Haut Bailly
De Chevalier
Rauzan Segla
Montrose
Pontet Canet
Fleur Cardinale


Will also purchase a half dozen selections from different regions for $15-30 to drink over next 10 years. Have not solidified these selections but thinking about the following just to name a few.....

Lanessan $15 (how do you go wrong?)
Charmail $17 (same as above)
Corbin
Phelan Segur
Domaine de l'A
Clos de Bouard
Lalande Borie
Fonplegade
Sansonnet
Haut Brisson
Poujeaux (always a value)
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brodway
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

Will add Labegorce to my QPR list
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

Have never been impressed with Talbot to pay $60 on futures for it although years ago Arv was a big fan.....I think we drank an 82 and a 90 at one of the NYC events . Remember them being average
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

Chateau D'Aiguilhe could be good QPR too
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

Clos Lunelles and Cap de Faugeres more QPR
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

Like 1996, 2016 could be distorted by 2015....exactly what happened in 1996 when 1995 was the talk around the wine shop.....

Anyone remember Clos du Marquis at $30? That was Jim Howe's Blue Light Special
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JCNorthway »

I am curious about what some of you are reading into the 2016 Cantemerle based on reviews. I pretty much discount Sucking based on past performance. And here is a quote I saw from Neil Martin -

"The 2016 Cantemerle has a tightly wound bouquet and it never quite delivers the detail and mineralité that some of its peers have produced in this vintage. There are attractive undergrowth scents and a touch of tobacco, but it does not leap from the glass with joy. The palate is medium-bodied with supple tannin, good depth of fruit, blackberry laced with cedar and graphite. One sample was missed a little precision, however, a second and third demonstrated much more precision and tension. My score reflects this." -Neal Martin, Apr 2017
Reviewed by: The Wine Advocate - 90-92 pts

Does that sound like a compelling "buy"?
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Chateau Vin »

Based on NM's notes, doesn't seem compelling and I am not buying for this vintage. However, I reserve my final judgement for UGC tasting or someone from this forum says otherwise and i might buy at that time. IIRC, Alex also didn't make a compelling case, but I maybe wrong.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

JC

not for me anyway.....i'm going to pass on the 2016 Cantemerle as i too think there are more interesting options for the buck and i can't buy them all. i did buy Cantemerle in 2010 and it was a good deal in comparison to other names in that vintage. 2016 vintage is going to offer a deeper selection in that price range and i do believe some of those names are going to be just a tad more interesting
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

Suckling is a showboat and grandstander. He is just keeping up with the 98 point reviews from some of the marginal rags like "Wine Enthusiast" and "Asian Wine Journal." Neal Martin ... appreciated him as an underdog before going to WA, liked his literature but have no handle on his "style." Sort of like Chris Kissack. Really like his stories and viewpoint and assume he knows what he likes but does that translate into anything actionable? Me, I can like some overripe Spanish wine one night and a 30-year old leathery cru bourgeoise the next. I am honest yes, but consistent, not so much. Last several years I haven't paid attention to critics or ratings at all.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Gerry M. »

Ok. I'm weak. I just place my first orders. These were high on my list and saw that they were already starting to sell out. My fear was getting shut out like Canon last year,

Labegorce
Cos
Montrose

Ughh, this is not good. A lot of my favorites have not even been released yet
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brodway
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

Yeah Gerry.....that's my concern too....still dozens of wines to be released and i only have room for a few...
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Nicklasss »

Depending on price here, I'm ready to give the 2016 Chateau Talbot a chance to land in my reserve. Other Saint-Julien i should go for is Lagrange.

I don't know yet which big boy i will pick a few bottles. Hat about Pessac?

I'm sure 2016 is something, but I guess 2009 and 2010 are greater.

Nic
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

Gloria is out for $40 a bottle.....a St. Julien at an affordable price.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by AKR »

brodway wrote:Have never been impressed with Talbot to pay $60 on futures for it although years ago Arv was a big fan.....I think we drank an 82 and a 90 at one of the NYC events . Remember them being average
Talbot was reliable in the expense account days, when one could reliably find it on lists, and it was good, if not great.

But that phase of my life is over, and I haven't bought any post 2000. I see the 2010 locally on the shelves at $60, an easy pass, especially when I remember prices from another era.

It seems like 2015/2016 are vintages to gather southern Medocs, Margauxs, Graves. I too look curiously at names like Labegorce or Cantemerle.

One thing that seems to have changed about the futures market in the last 20 years is how many more merchants offer single bottles. Nowadays the vendors who insist on full case orders (HDH, GVWM, maybe a few others) seem like the outliers, and they are typically not the sharpest price anyways. But of course the prices are hardly much less than the price of available, top tier vintages, thus negating the whole point of paying early.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Comte Flaneur »

I bought six bottles of Beychevelle today and 12 splits.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimS »

My interest in this campaign is massively starting to wane. Other than bottles of Montrose, Cos, Beychevelle, and Tour St. D (extra JimH) amounting in total to a little over a case and a half, I see very little reason to chase from here..... I find a lot of recent release prices to be blistering and overly ambitious, even as a US consumer with a strong dollar. With pricing exceeding 2009/2010 for quite a few, it's impossible to argue that it's worth tying up your money for that long considering the risks involved (who knows what the world or the market will look like over 2 years), not to mention how long 09/10 have already been in bottle for. I might as well let the chateaux just finance their inventory themselves, which might be the direction they are intending to eventually go after all.....

Pricing for 2015's and 2016's is starting to make 2014's look like a savvy buy.....just like what I have experienced all too often with the 08,09,10 trio....
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Racer Chris »

Lynch-Bages is out at $125.
I'm starting to feel tempted.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by RPCV »

JimS wrote:My interest in this campaign is massively starting to wane. Other than bottles of Montrose, Cos, Beychevelle, and Tour St. D (extra JimH) amounting in total to a little over a case and a half, I see very little reason to chase from here..... I find a lot of recent release prices to be blistering and overly ambitious, even as a US consumer with a strong dollar. With pricing exceeding 2009/2010 for quite a few, it's impossible to argue that it's worth tying up your money for that long considering the risks involved (who knows what the world or the market will look like over 2 years), not to mention how long 09/10 have already been in bottle for. I might as well let the chateaux just finance their inventory themselves, which might be the direction they are intending to eventually go after all.....

Pricing for 2015's and 2016's is starting to make 2014's look like a savvy buy.....just like what I have experienced all too often with the 08,09,10 trio....

Amen on the 2014's. I don't mean to hijack the thread but I really like what I have tasted. Not the structure to age 30+ years, but really nice mid-term wines. Gloria, Haut Bailly, Domaine de Chevalier, Carmes Haut Brion, Montrose, Calon Segur are in the cellar and I plan to secure a few more like Leoville Barton and Pichon Baron. I really enjoy the silky texture, fine acidity and fruit of the vintage. Great, and I mean great food wines, although selection is key as with most non-vintages of the century. For me, a hybrid of 2001 and 2002.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimHow »

I'm pleased to hear that about 2014, RP, I've bought a number of my favorite estates and will probably buy more at the prices I'm seeing. The only 2014 I've tried so far has been Calon Segur and I liked it. Bigger and different in style from the excellent 2011, but I liked it.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimHow »

and I agree, the prices of the 2016s ain't looking all that great all of a sudden.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by AKR »

Especially when one considers the dollar.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

Jim
what 2014's are you referring to that are priced better than the current offerings of 2016
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by DavidG »

If I were buying, these would be on my radar. Mostly wines I'm very familiar with except Figeac and Canon, which I've had only a few times.

Left Bank
Calon Segur
Cos
Beychevelle
Grand Puy Lacoste (in honor of Jim)
Haut Brion (if I hit the lottery)
Lynch Bages
Montrose

Right Bank
Angelus (price is now ridiculous, maybe a bottle or two)
Canon
Clinet
Clos Fourtet
Conseillante
Evangile
Figeac
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Comte Flaneur »

David,

You know you can buy splits? They age twice as quickly...don't forget this is the vintage that we BWEers have been dreaming about with the lower alcohol level. IIRC Our Dear Leader is roughly the same age as you and he is buying...(not GPL...no doubt)

When I was driving back from Beaune to London I listened to a brilliant CD...Leonard Cohen Live in London, from 2008. MEK was there. I only really got in to his music around the time he sadly checked out of the Life Hotel. But at that concert he was 74 or 75 years old and described the time he last played London aged 60 as a young idealist or words to that effect.

At the tender age of 54 my revised list is as follows:

Beychevelle - snagged, six bottles, 12 splits
Leoville Barton - I should have been buying this every year
Gruaud Larose - the dots really connect
Haut-Bailly - a one in two shot it will be as good as the 2009
SHL - ditto - hence great risk reward

Possibles would include Rauzan Segla, Canon, Clos Du Marquis, Talbot, Calon Segur and Prieure-Lichine

If I had the money I would buy LLC, the Pichons, Figeac and Conseillante, but I am confident they will all be out of reach price wise.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimS »

brodway wrote:Jim
what 2014's are you referring to that are priced better than the current offerings of 2016
Sorry for the tardy response, but I am just looking at relationships such as Lynch Bages, where you can pick up the 2014 vintage $80-85/btl, while 2016's are being offered +$40/btl (close to +50%) versus 2014; Sociando Mallet's 2014 is offered at a ~40% discount to 2016 as well with similar critic scores...these are just a few out of many...I have no choice but to triangulate critic scores and place higher weightings on the ones that align more with my personal preferences (having not tasted any of the wines myself), and it just seems like for a few extra "points", you are commanding quite a large premium. I have no doubt that 2016 will be a great vintage based on universal praise, and this is the type of vintage that aligns closely with my personal preferences (lower alcohol, more nuance, sense of terroir, etc.), but having said that, the tariff is quite high for a number of chateaux in my opinion and 2014 may very well offer better value if $$$'s are a constraining factor.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimHow »

Yes, I'm going to hold off on buying 2016s en futuro and just wait until they come out.
I'm going to fill in some of the spaces on my wine racks with 2014s.
I received delivery of a dozen 2014s that included a number of estates I haven't been buying much of in recent years, including Haut Bailly, Pape Clement, Clinet, d'Armailhac, etc., etc. (Don't tell anyone, but I even bought a bottle of 2014 GPL.)
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