2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

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Tom In DC
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Tom In DC »

No worries, Jimmy - you have to try a bottle of GPL to be able to tell everyone how disappointing it is for a classified Pauillac!
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JimHow
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimHow »

I think we need to do a virtual tasting of 2014 GPL....
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JimS
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimS »

Calon Segur?

Just when my interest was starting to wane, this one catches my eye - could be worth snagging a few....

2016 is the birth year of my daughter, so I do have some emotional attachment to the vintage as well as this particular wine (as a baby, she loves anything heart-shaped and finds the shape oddly fascinating), which obviously influences my purchasing decisions.... When she turns 21, I really do hope to open several of these 2016's each year with her on her birthday....
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JimHow
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimHow »

2016 is the birth year of my daughter, so I do have some emotional attachment to the vintage as well as this particular wine (as a baby, she loves anything heart-shaped and finds the shape oddly fascinating), which obviously influences my purchasing decisions.... When she turns 21, I really do hope to open several of these 2016's each year with her on her birthday....
Very sweet. Calon Segur has really become one of my favorites, and the prices have been rational.
I've got quite a little stash of Calon Segurs going from various vintages and I'm not planning on stopping anytime soon.
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marcs
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by marcs »

I'm almost 50 and I was out with 2010....my better 2000s bought 17 years ago are still not really ready. All backfilling for me from now on.
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JimHow
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimHow »

I'm really into the AlexR mindset that, generally speaking, the optimal time to drink quality Bordeaux is at the 15-20 year mark.
Thus, at the age of 58, I'm in for another five years or so.
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brodway
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

agree with above too Jim.....right now the 2001's are drinking beautifully.....drank 2 this week....one being Rol Valentin, the other Sociando Mallet and they were just perfect with fruit integrated and tannins having subsided....
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wine_drinker
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by wine_drinker »

Ditto, Jim. I had a 2002 Calon Segur recently, and loved how it opened up. I bought a couple Calon Segur 2000. Saw an offer of ex-chateau 1985 and 1986 Ducru Beaucaillou. I think I might need to snatch up a couple of those before they are gone.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimHow »

Oooh that 2002 Calon Segur is a beauty.
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AKR
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by AKR »

These prices that I see released daily are really high, to me.

I just can't believe that a rainy vintage is going to have great wines, either.
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Nicklasss
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Nicklasss »

Is 2016 the biggest "rabbit trap" ever see? So we should focus on 2015?

I'm getting confused.

Nic
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JeanFred
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JeanFred »

Why you say that Jean-Nic about 2016?

JeanFred
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Nicklasss
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Nicklasss »

JeanFred, look at AKR post above.

Also, Cos d'Estournel sort out it price first, around -1 % vs 2015. Canon is about -10 % vs 2015, but most (all) the others are + 5 to 15 % vs 2015. So what looked like a little cheaper at a moment, isn't at all.

Considering it is a bigger crop in 2016, and that we're hearing that rumor about 2017 frost having an impact on 2016 future prices, I guess nothing have really changed in Bordeaux in 2016 and finally the prices are higher than expected.

Like many BWEers, I might limit my 2016 futures purchase.

Nic
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimS »

I've substantially limited mine as well - I mentioned it earlier as well as a few others, but 2014 seems like the savvy vintage to really look at purchasing in relation to 2015/2016 pricing.

Cos, Montrose, Canon, and Calon Segur were really the only ones I ended up thinking were worthwhile purchasing today as opposed to a few more years down the road. I do like the TW (no affiliation, full disclosure) proposition of only 50% down though - takes a bit of the opportunity cost out of the equation. Imho, those four were about the only ones whose pricing looked rational and I've been disappointed by the vast majority of releases thus far. With the dollar starting to come off the high's, I've just been backfilling instead...
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AKR
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by AKR »

Well of that cluster, Canon is likely the only one harder to pin down later. I'm guessing they make 1/8 to 1/10th production of the bigger Medocs.

And going forward, since Canon is likely to have held back some stocks, that might be more readily available (of course at higher prices) since its now owned/managed by a luxury goods house, which is aping the other grand estates douchebaggy business practices. (dig up the WSJ article on the boutique hotel now being run on Canon's site...)

=========

My world view is that I'm generally bulled up on the dollar, and not as cheery on the real economy as market prices are. So I'll wait, and see if circumstances change. If I end up buying some of these wines at the same prevailing prices, 6-7 years later, I still end up better on an opportunity cost basis. It only really makes (economic) sense to cellar the rare/appreciating stuff.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by DavidG »

Macarthur's just came out with 2016 Clinet at $95/btl. I no longer have WS Pro so can't compare to other offers, but this one is tempting.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by AKR »

2015 is looking better too
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Gerry M.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Gerry M. »

I just saw Ducru-Beaucaillou come out at $185 and Pichon Baron for $150. I've bought some 2016 already but now I really have to question, at my age, if I should just throw in the towel on futures. When I can buy 1989 Pichon Baron and 2009 Ducru-Beaucaillou for just a little more than current futures pricing then it could be time to get out and focus on backfilling older vintages that I will love long enough to taste near maturity.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

Gerry M. wrote:I just saw Ducru-Beaucaillou come out at $185 and Pichon Baron for $150. I've bought some 2016 already but now I really have to question, at my age, if I should just throw in the towel on futures. When I can buy 1989 Pichon Baron and 2009 Ducru-Beaucaillou for just a little more than current futures pricing then it could be time to get out and focus on backfilling older vintages that I will love long enough to taste near maturity.
I believe it's been this way for a while. I am not looking at drinking horizons or cigar bars in the sky yet but there's hardly a reason to purchase Bordeaux in advance of arrival, unless it is truly something in scarce quantity or you are a provenance freak.
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Gerry M.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Gerry M. »

AlohaArtakaHoundsong wrote:
Gerry M. wrote:I just saw Ducru-Beaucaillou come out at $185 and Pichon Baron for $150. I've bought some 2016 already but now I really have to question, at my age, if I should just throw in the towel on futures. When I can buy 1989 Pichon Baron and 2009 Ducru-Beaucaillou for just a little more than current futures pricing then it could be time to get out and focus on backfilling older vintages that I will love long enough to taste near maturity.
I believe it's been this way for a while. I am not looking at drinking horizons or cigar bars in the sky yet but there's hardly a reason to purchase Bordeaux in advance of arrival, unless it is truly something in scarce quantity or you are a provenance freak.
That is so true, I have to laugh since it seems ironic that most of the bad bottles I've had over the last few years have come from cellars of friends who are provenance nuts.

I do like to pick up some 375's every year and they're difficult to find outside of futures. Even this year however fewer retailers are even offering a wide selection of them on futures.
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Chateau Vin
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Chateau Vin »

Well, Iike I said earlier, I caved in...

I have few reasons for that...Mainly, for the splits. Splits are difficult to find post en primeur. Also, I liked what I saw in this vintage i.e., low alcohol levels. I really enjoy alc level around 13% and that's why I decided to go for this vintage. Of course the UGC tastings will later give me a definitive picture. Also, I personally think that growth properties sell for more later than prearrivals. It's been my experience that barring one or two here and there, all my recent en primeur purchases raised in price compared to what I have paid so far. With regards to opportunity costs, Total Wine is asking for 50% payment, which I am ok with.

With 2016 vintage, I want to mainly go for Estephe and Pauillac. So far I got

4 splits of Meyney
4 splits of Duhart
2 splits of les pagodas cos
1 split of la dame montrose
1 split of montrose
2 bottles of montrose
2 splits of lynch bages
2 splits of Malescot (just want to see what the fuss is about this highly scored margaux)

I think this is not a cheap vintage either. IMO, the overall prices are not even reasonable considering weak Euro. Cos, Pichon, SHL and all the usual suspects are all priced high. Want to get Les Carmes, but damn they released at 75! I think the blame should go for Arv, as he is one of the first ones who took notice of its rising star...
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Comte Flaneur »

So far I have Beychevelle, Leoville Barton, Smith Haut Lafitte and Haut-Bailly
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by NoahR »

Have picked up a few:
Montrose
Lynch Bages
Malescot
Pichon Lalande
Pontet Canet
Ducru
Calon Segur

Mostly a few bottles of each. My son was born in 2016 and bought a bunch of 2014 for my daughter so now feel compelled to do the same. A money-losing proposition, unfortunately. First growth prices are ridiculous and twice 2014 levels.
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Gerry M.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Gerry M. »

Buying a couple of mixed cases of 2014 held me off for a while but now I'm back picking up a few more 2016's. So far these are the ones I've gone for:

Ch Montrose
Ch Labegorce (12)
Ch Cos d'Estournel
Ch Château Léoville Las Cases (1)
Ch Pichon Baron
Ch Pichon Lalande
Ch Doisy-Daene (375's)
Ch Climens (375's)
Ch Lynch Bages
Ch Beycheville

For the most part I've only bought a couple of 750's and 375's of each except for Lynch Bages which I went for a 6 pk and 2 mags plus a mag each of Pichon Baron and Pichon Lalande.

The only one I'm curious about is Figeac. If it's priced insanely then I'm done.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimHow »

Well done, Gerry, very well done indeed!

I gotta come pick up those du Tertres from you sometime in the not too distant future!
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

Gerry that's a very solid looking list of wines....my list has many of the same names....but i'm going to add a number of inexpensive bottlings to consume in the next 5-10 years
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Gerry M. »

That's one reason I picked up a case of the Labegorce but I plan to look into that if they look attractive enough vs just waiting until release. I may focus on 375's for now.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

don't blame you Gerry......quality $20 Bordeaux is a no brainer
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Gerry M.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Gerry M. »

Being a value conscious kind of guy, this kills me, but I might consider buying a couple of Figeac (damn $200?). At this point I'm trying to rationalize it by saying hey, 2017 is a wash out. I've got two years to finally realize that at your age (57) futures are not in your future.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Chateau Vin »

Looks like 2016 En Primeur is working well for the Bordealise...The second tranche prices have crept up. Cos was released around 150 USD and the second tranche price is above 180 USD...

Jim, Are you buying Lynch around 130 or GPL for around 80? :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (FWIW, both are highly rated, BTW). As Art mentioned, IPT has become fashionable nowadays and Lynch knocked it out of the park with an IPT of 95.... :lol: :lol:
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by JimS »

Taking inventory after being done with 2016 purchases.....

Half cases:
Cos
Lynch
Montrose
Canon
Calon Segur
Tour St. Christophe

Cases (to keep my hands off of the above for enough time!):
Labegorce
Lanessan
Potensac

I plan to drink my "easier on the wallet" case buys over several years in order to have the patience to open some of the others with enough age on them. I'm pretty new to the futures game (first timer here), but one thing this campaign did do for me though is highlight the value in several wines in back or "off" vintages. I've also taken time to make a few auction buys of names I know I'll love but at prices that seem rather cheap compared to more recent vintages. If a recent 2000 Leoville Barton that I opened is a good representation of what this vintage will become in 15-20 years (typicity, low alcohol, freshness, high acidity, etc.), count me incredibly happy.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by AKR »

I don't know if this is reflective of the overall industry, but here's what HDH is stating about 2016 EP

(Some of you may remember them as the vendor where protean BWE early apostle Ben 'Whuzzup' Nelson went to)

Looking at the summary at the bottom suggests that HDH is treating Mouton as a First Growth

========================

The 2016 Bordeaux Futures campaign has generated the most excitement since the 2010 vintage. In the 6 weeks since we launched our 2016 futures campaign, sales have eclipsed those of the excellent 2015 vintage by nearly 30%. The 2016 growing season was particularly excellent in the Northern Médoc, as evidenced by the fact that over 60% of our total sales can be attributed to left bank châteaux. There has been extremely strong demand for First Growths - we've sold 28% more from the five legendary estates than last year. Many highly rated wines sold out within hours of being offered for sale and we've sold 100+ cases of several top wines. We’ve included a recap of the top 10 wines sold both by volume and by value below along with some highlights of the vintage that are still availalbe. These wines are still moving fast, so be sure to act now before they disappear.

Top 2016 Futures Sold by Value
• Château Mouton Rothschild
• Château Pichon-Longueville, Lalande
• Château Margaux
• Château Léoville Las Cases
• Château Montrose
• Château Haut-Brion
• Château La Mission Haut-Brion
• Château Lafite Rothschild
• Château Cheval Blanc
• Château Pétrus

Top 2016 Futures Sold by Volume
• Château Pichon-Longueville, Lalande
• Château Montrose
• Château Léoville Las Cases
• Château Lynch-Bages
• Château Mouton Rothschild
• Château Cos d'Estournel
• Château Pichon-Longueville, Baron
• Château La Mission Haut-Brion
• Château Ducru-Beaucaillou
• Château Margaux

- Futures sales are nearly 30% higher than previous record campaign (2015)
- 11.5% higher volume of wine has been sold than previous record campaign (2015)
- Sales of First Growth are wines up 28% from the 2015 futures campaign
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by jckba »

Hi Alex,

The above post leaves me hanging as the problem I have with Bdx is that for the most part sales figures without the quantities released, or the quantities sold, or rather the the quantities held by negociants makes this kind of sales pitch a useless data point. So I am curious, how does my read sit with you?
Last edited by jckba on Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Chateau Vin »

I personally do not fully buy the argument that it's not worth buying the futures. Pretty much most of the above average growth properties' prices have risen even in regular vintages. There are few properties that are not worth buying futures, but overall the prices have risen even for vintages like 2011 and 2012 for growth properties.

Like I mentioned earlier in the thread, 2016 vintage futures campaign is doing well. Chinese sales have increased, dollar is strong vis a vis Euro and I see second tranche prices released so far are higher than the first ones. Maybe negociants are holding more back, but I think 2016 campaign is doing better than the 2015...
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by jckba »

Speaking of negociants, I found this article pretty interesting.

http://www.decanter.com/learn/vintage-g ... ux-370890/
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by AKR »

jckba wrote:Speaking of negociants, I found this article pretty interesting.

http://www.decanter.com/learn/vintage-g ... ux-370890/
When merchants/middlemen are turning into a 'capital intensive' business that just means they have stopped being in the moving business and are now in the storage business -- whether they realize it or not. When those inventory turns start dropping that's when bankers and their revolving credit start getting nervous. There's a reason sober bankers will only lend an umbrella when there's not a cloud in the sky.

In the developed world, where food and alcoholic beverages have mostly been suffering deflation, I don't see either the rationale or "profit" in buying futures esp richly priced vintages like 2016. Especially as one starts to add the hidden but still real expenses: opportunity cost of capital, storage costs, disposition/commission costs to sell.

========

This is wonky but there in an investment concept called backwardation/contango that is mostly applied to commodity futures. It describes how much future prices relate to current delivery prices. For a long time, many commodities traded cheap in futures market, especially because the producers could not be risk neutral, since they had much more at the stake than the buyers. Typically a producer has all their revenue tied up in their offering. Industrial consumers might only spend a small sliver on whatever the component is (sugar, corn, hog bellies etc). So consumers would require a discount to lock in their price, and the producer was willing to grant that, to hedge his much larger (proportionately) risk. The connection to the wine forwards market is this: as more of the Bordelaise shifted from single family estates to corporate conglomerate ownership they stopped needing to worry about solvency risk, since they had diversified business lines. So naturally they stopped needing to discount. I think if the The Place really wanted to get back to a risk reducing style of futures market they would need to transact 5 or 10 years of production at a time - that would actually get back to the real transfer of weather/quality risk from the producer to the buyer.

Anyways that is my theory.
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AKR
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by AKR »

And yes, jckba, I too wonder what the actual volume and percentage of production has sold through. If the middlemen are needing more capital it suggests to me that more of the inventory is getting clogged up in their warehouses.

I have this other theory which I've plagiarized from someone else who I can't remember: a wine's prices eventually converges to its drinking value. There's no guarantee of when that that time happens, or if its on your convenient schedule. But things that can't go on forever, don't. And when the Chateau & Estates of the world get tired of being in a low returning business, they'll puke out whatever they're carrying, and its more likely to find that drinking value price level, than the old speculative fervor pricing. A world of higher interest rates makes that day come sooner rather than later, as well.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by brodway »

Arv

and here i was thinking contango only applies to oil prices.....interesting analogy.
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by Chateau Vin »

I still think buying 2016 futures is better option than buying the same vintage later. I think few more vintages will assure that option attractive. But I am willing to jump on Arv's bandwagon a little later than he is-- mainly because of the continued increase in wine consumerism and feel that the release prices still have some room for price increases to make them unattractive. But there is no doubt that the bordelaise are heading where they want all the golden eggs at once ...
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Re: 2016 Bordeaux futures - anyone biting?

Post by dstgolf »

Gerry M

By comparisn:

Lynch Bages $229
Pichon Baron $279
Pontet Canet $259
Pichon Lalonde $299
Ducru $335
Palmer$526

At these prices there's no way I'm considering Bordeaux futures going forwad even if these prices are in Cdn$s the prices are off the charts!!
Danny
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