2018 A vintage of the Century?

[AKR]

After Disastrous 2017, French Winemakers Cheer 'Incredible' 2018
2018-09-17 04:19:20.19 GMT


By Elin McCoy
(Bloomberg) -- In Saint Emilion, at Chateau Corbin,
winemaker Anabelle Cruse-Bardinet is exuberant about this year’s
harvest. Spring frosts devastated her vineyard last year, as
they did to many other chateaux in Bordeaux, and she made no
wine at all. “We are going to make an incredible vintage in
2018,” she emailed. “We had a dry and sunny summer, giving
grapes good concentration and very ripe tannins.” It was the
hottest July since the great vintage of 1947.
Fall is wine harvest season in the northern hemisphere.
Most vignerons in France are smiling, thrilled that 2018 isn’t a
repeat of miserable 2017, when they harvested the smallest crop
since World War II, no thanks to massive frosts, violent
hailstorms, and scorching heat waves. (Surprisingly, the quality
of the grapes that survived was outstanding in many places,
including Bordeaux.)
This year, besides winning the World Cup, France is also
one of the big winners in the global harvest sweepstakes. Over
the past 10 days, I’ve emailed winemakers and trade
organizations in France’s major regions to get the latest
updates. The farther north you go, the better the grapes look.
Since harvest won’t finish until next month, everyone is
keeping eyes on the sky—and smartphone weather apps. Here’s the
outlook from various regions in France:Alsace
This cool, northeastern region had one of its earliest
harvests in history, and is on track to make great wines.
“Vintages like this one can be counted on one hand,” says Jean-
Frederic Hugel of well-known Famille Hugel winery, where harvest
began on Sept. 5. “The wines will be rich, with a lot of
concentration, and spells of cooler weather maintained bright
acidity. And it will be a generous vintage with good
production.”
The sole worry was the very dry conditions during the
summer’s heat, but just enough rain fell to keep the vines
going.
In the past few years, Alsace pinot noir has become “a
thing,” and examples from 2018 should be stunning.
Bordeaux
Twice a day, Château Mouton-Rothschild’s managing director,
Philippe Dhalluin, checks in with Meteo-France, the national
meteorological service, for details on the local weather
forecast in Pauillac. On Sept. 10, his pickers began harvesting
merlot; for cabernet, Dhalluin estimates a start around the end
of the month or the first week of October. “Everything looks
perfect so far,” he says.
Not all parts of Bordeaux were equally lucky this year.
Gavin Quinney of Château Bauduc points out that one of the worst
hailstorms in recent memory battered vineyards at the end of May
and struck in Sauternes and parts of Graves on the day France
won the World Cup. For others, a soggy, warm June encouraged the
spread of mildew, which can result in serious grape loss.
Still, the overall crop in France is rebounding 25 percent
over 2017, according to the French agricultural ministry. For
wine consumers, this is very good news.
Just don’t expect prices to go down. This is still Bordeaux
we are talking about.
Burgundy
For many growers here, harvest started three weeks early,
thanks to marvelous weather during the growing season that
boosted ripening. Picking early is a boon to winemakers who
worry about when the inevitable fall rains will begin. Most
winemakers are happy, especially when it comes to the whites,
which Laurent Drouhin of Joseph Drouhin says have floral and
fruity flavors. The super-hot, dry summer saved the day after a
humid spring that threatened mildew, and rain at the end of
August kept acidity in the grapes.
In Chablis, Julien Brocard of Jean-Marc Brocard winery says
the taste of the unfermented grape juice is immensely pure. When
it comes to reds, says Paul Wasserman, whose family company, Le
Serbet, handles dozens of top Burgundy producers, this will be a
darker, riper vintage with good structure. The Côte de Beaune
had better conditions than the Côte de Nuits, where two
hailstorms caused substantial damage.
Champagne
Enthusiasm is high, with such grower comments as, “I might
not see another one like this in my lifetime!” For the fifth
time in the last 15 years, picking started in August and is
almost finished. Early ripening also reflects the way climate
change is altering the growing season.
The Taittinger family reports that the ripeness levels mean
richness and lush aromas in the wines. Early morning
temperatures of only 32F ensured good acidity in the grapes,
too. And the quantity is big enough—perhaps 10 million bottles
more than last year—to allow vignerons to rebuild their depleted
stocks of reserve wine, according to Thibaut Le Mailloux at
trade organization Comité Champagne. These are essential in
creating top-quality, non-vintage house blends.
Hubert de Billy, the fifth generation to run famous
Champagne house Pol Roger, sums up 2018 this way: “After talking
with my father Christian, born in 1928, we have never seen such
a remarkable harvest in terms of both quality and quantity.
After 1988, 1998, and 2008, the years ending in “8” truly keep
on rocking.”
Loire Valley
Optimism reigns. Wine trade organization InterLoire
collected grape samples from all the region’s various
appellations such as Muscadet, and predicts wines of “excellent
quality.”
The weather tale here is pretty much the same as elsewhere
in France: sun, no rain, and high temperatures that accelerated
ripening. Best of all, after two difficult years with small
crops (and lots of worry), most vignerons will produce
significantly more wine. Sadly, because of rainy, humid weather
in June, some organic producers that don’t use preventative
chemical sprays lost a lot of grapes to virulent mildew.
Rhône Valley
In a weird turn of events, the harvest in the northern part
of the Rhône started before it did in the south. Vignerons began
picking reds last week, about seven to 10 days earlier than
usual. The region’s trade organization, Interprofession des Vins
Côtes du Rhône and Vallée du Rhône, reports “the vines are in
excellent condition.” That’s despite burning sun and super-dry
conditions.
In 2017, 371 million bottles of Rhône wines were sold; 2018
will produce much more. Quality looks very good, especially in
the north. In the latest Rhône hot spot, Crozes-Hermitage,
Laurent Combier of Domaine Combier is “anticipating a bright
future for the wines.”
Provence
Don’t worry about the region’s popular rosés. This year is
another good vintage, and you’ll have plenty to pick among next
summer, though rain (and some hail) hit a few unlucky growers.
Harvest started at the end of August, which is early but not a
record, explains Patrick Leon, winemaker and manager at Château
d’Esclans, the maker of ubiquitous Whispering Angel rosé. Leon
predicts that the wines will be fruitier, with less tart acidity
and slightly lower alcohol than those of 2017, which means we
can just drink more.

[JimHow]

Wow!
But that means I would have to live into my 80s, which is something I hope I can avoid.
Of course, talk to me when I'm 79....

[AlohaArtakaHoundsong]

Long overdue.

[AlexR]

While it is true that this has been the second hottest summer since 1950, I am allergic to pronouncements of this type, which I find highly irresponsible.

OK, indications are positive but, for Chrissakes, all is far from said and done.

Alex R.

[AKR]

It's not really a WOTC until Comte Flaneur says its so.

[Comte Flaneur]

I’ll let you know in about a month’s time, Arv.

Like Philippe Dhalluin I am keeping closely in touch with Meteo-France.

But it’s looking good.

[marcs]

NOT GOOD ENOUGH, grab a high-speed train to Bordeaux and start tasting the grapes off the vine!

[Winona Chief]

But what about the 2020s? I've heard they are going to be Great.

Chris Bublitz

[marcs]

I suspect that the improvement in winemaking/investment plus global warming is delivering a long-term upward shift in performance for the top French regions, such that at least a third of vintages are going to be "great" and only around 10-15% will be "bad", with the rest being good. Look at the oughts in Bordeaux -- 2000, 2005, 2009, 2010 "great", only 2007 was "bad". Non-"great" vintages like 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2008 are good by historical standards and depending on style preferences one might actually prefer some of these vintages to the "great" ones that are big and tannic. For Burgundy the story is similar -- 2005, 2009, 2010 are "great" and only 2004 is actively "bad".

Looked at narrowly, for Bordeaux that may not be so far off the 80s performance (82, 89. 90 "great" and 84, 87 "bad"), but you can see the pattern more clearly when you compare e.g. the 19 years from 1981-1999 to the 19 years from 2000-2018. First period, 1982, 1989, 1990, 1996 are "great" and 1984, 1987, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1997 are "bad". Second period, 2000, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2015, 2016 and now perhaps 2018 are "great" and only 2007 and 2013 are "bad". Arguably the "not-great" vintages are more consistent in the second period too.

It is actually not too hard to pick out vintages in the 2000-2018 period that would have been "bad" but were rescued by better winemaking and vineyard management. I think it's a little more complicated question whether better growing/winemaking techniques could take a vintage from "good but not great" to "great" but I bet if my knowledge was deeper I could point to a case like that as well.

[AKR]

I think some of the vintages you are calling 'bad' are really more accurately just 'serviceable'.

They would be stuff you'd drink at a restaurant, if fairly priced.

But not stuff that people here would expend a space constrained cellar* spot on.

* exempting Blanquito who I think has that infinite capacity room from the Harry Potter movies