UK newspaper urges readers to buy BDX before Brexit

[AKR]

Brexit may make it impossible to get BDX. Urges consumers to buy now, before prices and availability freeze consumers out forever.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ore-brexit

[marcs]

down toward the end of the piece they admit it's not going to affect classed growths.

the U.S. isn't in the EU and plenty of Bordeaux is available here

[Claudius2]

Folks
Sorry to be cynical but the Poms have been importing Bordeaux for some centuries before the EU was even thought it. This is marketing bullshit at its finest. And over here in Asia the Chinese market has softened so there is more wine to sell....

[DavidG]

So Brexit will complicate importation of wine, along with a jillion other things. Prices will go up, but the price of supermarket wine will be far down the list of things people will suffer from.

[Claudius2]

David
Why will the price of wine increase??
There are wine vendors and producers all over the world with tons of it to sell.
The Chinese and some other Asian markets are cooling and if anything, the price will come down, not go up.
The politicians are talking a lot of crap. Commerce exists as people want to buy and sell goods, not because some snotty nosed bureaucrats say they can.

[DavidG]

My assumption was increased difficulty/regulation/costs to get it to market would increase prices to the consumer. I wouldn’t expect the importers to absorb that cost. Or perhaps I’ve misunderstood the impact. Finance and markets are not my forté.

Certainly lower demand/greater supply will have downward pressure on prices. I guess your point is that the supply/demand effect will overcome any increased importation costs (if my assumption that they would increase is even correct). Is that happening already in the segment of wines addressed in the article? I don’t buy them so have no idea. I haven’t seen much effect on classed growth Bordeaux here in the US, though we do see swings related to exchange rates and level of hype. Which I guess is also part of your point: the article is just hype.

[AKR]

Maybe enthusiasts will have to smuggle in their swill.

[AlohaArtakaHoundsong]

It looks like this message is directed at people in the UK. While I understand this would be troubling for them, the inability of Bordeaux producers to ship into the UK market should actually be a boon to consumers in other markets. I would love to see what the closure of the market would do to the price of Bdx here in the states.

[Claudius2]

Guys
Sorry I cannot see the Poms giving up on claret nor any other wine that they have imbibed in by the tankerload for hundreds of years.
As for the producers, they will be happy to organise trade deals with the Poms any day.

My overall point here is that in 2019, there is the assumption that commerce cannot exist without administrative fiat.
I taught international business at Universities over here for some decades and see govt policy and their usual fights as being an annoying distraction.
I also used some of the reports done by the EU on European economics and trade, and they would seriously have got a FAIL is submitted by a student.

The whole idea of the EU was a trading bloc which can compete with North America and the emerging giants in Asia.
I was in the UK when Brexit happened and the reasons why pro-Brexiters wanted out actually make sense.
The EU is not a nation state yet acts like a meta-state and that is not exactly what the member states signed up for.

I am not campaigning for an end to the EU per se, but I AM hoping for common sense and for govts to stop thinking that it is their goal in life to make every bloody decision for the people.
My wife grew up with Mao's red guards and the cultural revolution and her family had their business and private home confiscated by the communists.
So did hundreds of millions of others not to mention the tens of millions who were killed or died in gulags.
Yet as China embraces free market ideology (well, as long as the communists can benefit from it....) the west seems to be too weak, divided and tired to push back.

I am sorry if you think I am being personal or attacking anyone. I am not - that is absolutely not my point.
My point is that trade and commerce does not need politicians and bureaucrats telling us what to do and restricting what we can have.
Yet my frustration is that so many people see a world in which govts and their bureaucracies necessarily run everything.

[AKR]

Truly it would be sad if the Eurocrats embargo'd Bordeaux exports to Britain to punish them.

But should the UK consumer lay down a supply now, preparing for a long winter war?

[DavidG]

Let them drink Port.

[AlexR]

My wife (English) is distraught by Brexit and as ashamed of it as many Americans are of Donald Trump.
The "success" of both is due to the rise in populism.
In both instances, positions can be correlated with degree of education.

The British voted for Brexit because they are an island nation with strong nostalgia for their former empire.
Unlike the French, they feel they can weigh on the world scene all on their lonesome...

Like any divorce, no one side, of course, is faultless. The nameless, faceless, anti-democratic nature of the EU doesn't help.
Neither did EU officials take the danger of Brexit seriously, and did little to prevent it.

The present situation in the UK is total chaos. No one has thes slightest f***ing idea how things will work out by the 29th of March.

We all know that psychology is a very important factor on financial markets, so *perceived* risks, , whether real or not, have a great impact.

If Britain is not, as seems likely, in a customs union with the EU, I can't imagine any way in which the British will *not* pay more for their European wines.
That will be a golden opportunity for New World wines (Australia is already number one in the UK).

Best regards,
Alex R.

[Comte Flaneur]

Brexit is an attempted coup by Far Right ultranationalist English supremacists masquerading under the umbrella called the European Research Group in the Conservative Party. But there are other very shady criminal characters lurking in the shadows like Nigel Farage and Aaron Banks, who almost certainly have links to Putin, as well as more transparently Trump. I believe that they and others are ‘persons of interest’ in the Mueller investigation. The ERG and Brexiters are disproportionately old rich white men, ideologues that fanatically hate the European project and its success, like Jacob Rees-Mogg, opportunistic charlatans like Boris Johnson, and disrupters who hope to make a financial killing out of the chaos. Most fanatical Brexiters are climate change deniers too - that is all tied into the Brexit project. Brexit backers include Putin and big US business lobbies in food and pharma sectors who sniff big opportunities. As with Trump the whole project is designed as a mass takeover of our politics and institutions by the Far Right, and the shady billionaires bankrolling this. If we crash out of the EU without a deal it will be their fault and fault of Prime Minister Theresa May but they are certain to try to blame the EU. I think they will fail and that Parliament will wrest control of the agenda, which will delay the exit date, and mean a soft Brexit or hopefully no Brexit at all.

But Brexit has already done enormous damage to the UK’s international reputation and now as the deadline draws closer, to the British economy. As an economist it is clear that Brexit is a remarkably stupid thing for us to do. In the EU we really could have our cake and it. We have a rebate, we designed the single in our interests so we could sell our services seamlessly in the Continent. And we are throwing that away. But that is not what bothers me most about Brexit. What really bothers me is the message it sends as to what sort of country we aspire to be. Brexit makes us inward-looking little englanders, suspicious of outsiders and building metaphorical walls. In history isolationism always ends very badly. There are two types of populism: the left wing variety based on inequality, and the right wing variety based on fear, suspicion and hate. We have both but more of the latter. Brexit is a triumph of stupidity over common sense, of fear over hope, of hate over love and of evil over good.

If you want to know what is really going on in Brexit read Chris Grey’s blog. Sometimes I have to pinch myself that all this is really happening in a country like the UK.

http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com

This too:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... eal-brexit

[JCNorthway]

Not a pretty picture . . .

Of course we now have our own "national emergency" . . .

[Ognik]

No sympathy with the brits. State of play.

[marcs]

Brexit is an attempted coup by Far Right ultranationalist English supremacists masquerading under the umbrella called the European Research Group in the Conservative Party. But there are other very shady criminal characters lurking in the shadows like Nigel Farage and Aaron Banks, who almost certainly have links to Putin, as well as more transparently Trump. I believe that they and others are ‘persons of interest’ in the Mueller investigation. The ERG and Brexiters are disproportionately old rich white men, ideologues that fanatically hate the European project and its success, like Jacob Rees-Mogg, opportunistic charlatans like Boris Johnson, and disrupters who hope to make a financial killing out of the chaos. Most fanatical Brexiters are climate change deniers too - that is all tied into the Brexit project. Brexit backers include Putin and big US business lobbies in food and pharma sectors who sniff big opportunities. As with Trump the whole project is designed as a mass takeover of our politics and institutions by the Far Right, and the shady billionaires bankrolling this. If we crash out of the EU without a deal it will be their fault and fault of Prime Minister Theresa May but they are certain to try to blame the EU. I think they will fail and that Parliament will wrest control of the agenda, which will delay the exit date, and mean a soft Brexit or hopefully no Brexit at all.

But Brexit has already done enormous damage to the UK’s international reputation and now as the deadline draws closer, to the British economy. As an economist it is clear that Brexit is a remarkably stupid thing for us to do. In the EU we really could have our cake and it. We have a rebate, we designed the single in our interests so we could sell our services seamlessly in the Continent. And we are throwing that away. But that is not what bothers me most about Brexit. What really bothers me is the message it sends as to what sort of country we aspire to be. Brexit makes us inward-looking little englanders, suspicious of outsiders and building metaphorical walls. In history isolationism always ends very badly. There are two types of populism: the left wing variety based on inequality, and the right wing variety based on fear, suspicion and hate. We have both but more of the latter. Brexit is a triumph of stupidity over common sense, of fear over hope, of hate over love and of evil over good.

If you want to know what is really going on in Brexit read Chris Grey’s blog. Sometimes I have to pinch myself that all this is really happening in a country like the UK.

http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com

This too:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... eal-brexit

Please. The post-war order is springing all kinds of leaks because it is way past its sell-by date and needs significant institutional reform. But instead of proposing real but responsible reforms people are losing themselves in endless elaborate conspiracy theories about Putin. How about competing to lead the public in a democracy instead of just amping up the invective and panic. It's not like it should be difficult to defeat the likes of Boris Johnson and Donald Trump. There's unfortunately a whole lot of fear, suspicion, and hate to go around in our politics on all sides right now.

[marcs]

Not a pretty picture . . .

Of course we now have our own "national emergency" . . .

the "emergency" is just a signal of Trump definitively losing on his signature issue, which he has been unable to execute on. Everything will now stop dead while Trump gets sued, the Supreme Court will decide whether he has any legal avenue to spend $ under these "emergency" authorities, and regardless of what happens in that case he will not be able to build his "wall" because he can't get enough emergency money without Congress and has run out of time.

His failure to do a relatively simple thing like the border wall is just the latest demonstration that Trump, far from being a new Hitler or representing the "takeover" of anything, is one of the weakest, most unpopular, and most incompetent presidents in post-WWII history. The only stuff he can do are things that were already on the perma-Republican or bipartisan agenda before he came along, like massive tax cuts or trying to overthrow the Venezuelan government (both things done by GW Bush, to show you how standard they are). That and further de-legitimize the American state by just the spectacle of his existence.

[AKR]

Brexit is an attempted coup by Far Right ultranationalist English supremacists masquerading under the umbrella called the European Research Group in the Conservative Party. But there are other very shady criminal characters lurking in the shadows like Nigel Farage and Aaron Banks, who almost certainly have links to Putin, as well as more transparently Trump. I believe that they and others are ‘persons of interest’ in the Mueller investigation. The ERG and Brexiters are disproportionately old rich white men, ideologues that fanatically hate the European project and its success, like Jacob Rees-Mogg, opportunistic charlatans like Boris Johnson, and disrupters who hope to make a financial killing out of the chaos. Most fanatical Brexiters are climate change deniers too - that is all tied into the Brexit project. Brexit backers include Putin and big US business lobbies in food and pharma sectors who sniff big opportunities. As with Trump the whole project is designed as a mass takeover of our politics and institutions by the Far Right, and the shady billionaires bankrolling this. If we crash out of the EU without a deal it will be their fault and fault of Prime Minister Theresa May but they are certain to try to blame the EU. I think they will fail and that Parliament will wrest control of the agenda, which will delay the exit date, and mean a soft Brexit or hopefully no Brexit at all.

But Brexit has already done enormous damage to the UK’s international reputation and now as the deadline draws closer, to the British economy. As an economist it is clear that Brexit is a remarkably stupid thing for us to do. In the EU we really could have our cake and it. We have a rebate, we designed the single in our interests so we could sell our services seamlessly in the Continent. And we are throwing that away. But that is not what bothers me most about Brexit. What really bothers me is the message it sends as to what sort of country we aspire to be. Brexit makes us inward-looking little englanders, suspicious of outsiders and building metaphorical walls. In history isolationism always ends very badly. There are two types of populism: the left wing variety based on inequality, and the right wing variety based on fear, suspicion and hate. We have both but more of the latter. Brexit is a triumph of stupidity over common sense, of fear over hope, of hate over love and of evil over good.

If you want to know what is really going on in Brexit read Chris Grey’s blog. Sometimes I have to pinch myself that all this is really happening in a country like the UK.

http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com

This too:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... eal-brexit

Isn't the UK's more natural political and business partners the US, Canada, Australia etc. ?

The Anglo Block shares a common background, jurisprudence, capitalism, respect for freedom and so on.

Why not unite with us?

[AlexR]

Arv,

I had to look the figure ups, and they don't tell the whole story but:

"Taken as a bloc, the EU is the UK's largest trading partner. In 2017 the EUaccounted for 44% of UK exports and 53% imports".
https://www.google.fr/search?source=hp& ... i6F1rjMNvc

"As a single country the US is the largest export market for the UK. It is, however, well behind the EU when the bloc is viewed as a single market".
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44802666

It is unlikely that English speaking countries would band together to form their own customs union. After all, there is already the British Commonwealth which, as far as I am aware, does not provide a significant trade advantage to member countries.

A young Australian recently explained to me that his country felt abandoned by the British during WWII, and then again when the UK joined the Common Market, thereby dealing a heavy blow to Australian exports. America filled the vacuum. But now China has come along...

Alex

[Comte Flaneur]

Brexit is an attempted coup by Far Right ultranationalist English supremacists masquerading under the umbrella called the European Research Group in the Conservative Party. But there are other very shady criminal characters lurking in the shadows like Nigel Farage and Aaron Banks, who almost certainly have links to Putin, as well as more transparently Trump. I believe that they and others are ‘persons of interest’ in the Mueller investigation. The ERG and Brexiters are disproportionately old rich white men, ideologues that fanatically hate the European project and its success, like Jacob Rees-Mogg, opportunistic charlatans like Boris Johnson, and disrupters who hope to make a financial killing out of the chaos. Most fanatical Brexiters are climate change deniers too - that is all tied into the Brexit project. Brexit backers include Putin and big US business lobbies in food and pharma sectors who sniff big opportunities. As with Trump the whole project is designed as a mass takeover of our politics and institutions by the Far Right, and the shady billionaires bankrolling this. If we crash out of the EU without a deal it will be their fault and fault of Prime Minister Theresa May but they are certain to try to blame the EU. I think they will fail and that Parliament will wrest control of the agenda, which will delay the exit date, and mean a soft Brexit or hopefully no Brexit at all.

But Brexit has already done enormous damage to the UK’s international reputation and now as the deadline draws closer, to the British economy. As an economist it is clear that Brexit is a remarkably stupid thing for us to do. In the EU we really could have our cake and it. We have a rebate, we designed the single in our interests so we could sell our services seamlessly in the Continent. And we are throwing that away. But that is not what bothers me most about Brexit. What really bothers me is the message it sends as to what sort of country we aspire to be. Brexit makes us inward-looking little englanders, suspicious of outsiders and building metaphorical walls. In history isolationism always ends very badly. There are two types of populism: the left wing variety based on inequality, and the right wing variety based on fear, suspicion and hate. We have both but more of the latter. Brexit is a triumph of stupidity over common sense, of fear over hope, of hate over love and of evil over good.

If you want to know what is really going on in Brexit read Chris Grey’s blog. Sometimes I have to pinch myself that all this is really happening in a country like the UK.

http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com

This too:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... eal-brexit

Isn't the UK's more natural political and business partners the US, Canada, Australia etc. ?

The Anglo Block shares a common background, jurisprudence, capitalism, respect for freedom and so on.

Why not unite with us?

Doesn’t work Arv. Gravity.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/08/ ... nal-trade/

[Claudius2]

Folks
I am starting to shake my head in disbelief.
Can we all put aside the conspiracy theories, emotional appeals and connection to Trump?
The Brexit vote preceded the US election by six months, and can I point out that the UK were world leaders in international trade for centuries as well as a significant military power.
I am Australian and as my parents sailed out of Liverpool in 1948 (though my dad was Irish) I still have a strong connection to the place and visit it every few years.

To the people who voted for Brexit (including a few older relatives of mine) they had enough of a centralised Brussels "union" which has become anti-democratic, bullying and often trivial.
The EU had a real chance to facilitate the member states with open trade, rational discourse and co-operative approaches to common issues and problems.
Had they bothered addressing that in any rational way Brexit would not have happened and in 2019, other countries are on the outer from the EU hierarchy and may pull out some time soon.

As I said, a common market and rational approaches to common issues make enormous sense. If that had of been the focus we would not be in the current mes, and frankly, I don't have a lot of time for the un-elected and anti-democratic eurocrats in Brussels and their constant power grabbing.

As for the UK, the post-vote wrangling has been a disaster.
It isn't just May, but she does have to bear a fair bit of the responsibility.

The voters thought that after Brexit, the UK would in fact exit the EU, meaning that they would organise deals and arrangements, economic, diplomatic and social, with the countries as individual states.
The UK has its own currency so the Euro was never an issue in any case.
However, no attempt to organise any deal with any country in the EU was even started, and a lot of wasted time was spent nit picking over what are relatively minor issues such as the northern Irish border (which could easily be done with a simple agreement irrespective of the EU).

Dealing with the EU after the vote was never going to be easy (though it wasn't before that to be brutally honest) but the "negotiations" have been a nightmare and the end point for a deal is rapidly approaching.
Yet June 2016 seems like a long time ago now.

[AlexR]

Claudius,

“Anglo” Australians are fewer and fewer, and links with the UK are looser and looser.

I was with Australians all last week. They were viscerally anti-Trump and feel that ties with Britain are more anecdotal than anything else. It’s true that they were not of English extraction, but than how many Australians are these days?
Blaming the EU for Brexit is quite a stretch, and does it not mean something that the other 27 countries do not accept such an interpretation?
Of course, the EU has its bureacratic nightmare side, but then don't all governments?

You write that “the voters thought that...”. That is the root of the problem. The British voted out of a sense of pride, but gave no thought whatsoever of the consequences of their actions. Now that time has come to pay the piper they act surprised. Unbelievable! The Brits have still not come to the realization that they cannot have their cake and eat it too.
The British hubris is nothing short of extraordinary. For Chrissakes, what make them think that *they* can set the terms?!

A pschodrama is looming. But "the deal" has been negotiated and refused by the British parliament. Does anyone reading this think that a compromise acceptable to Parliament can be worked out by the 29th of March?

Alex R.

[Antoine]

Chris Grey is an excellent site indeed.
US is about 12% of UK trade (so much smaller than EU)
Other issue for UK is that US will want to dump its Chlorine chicken and Steroids beef on UK market which will bankrupt UK farmers
The main issue though is Ireland.
One cannot avoid border without belonging to the same Customs Union, Republic of Ireland wants to stay in EU and UK does not want to stay in EU CU,
On the other hand UK (nor EU) does not want a border between Republic and Northern Ireland.
The only solution is for NI to stay in EU CU but UK does not want this
UK refuses to make a practical choice (to be or not to be in EU CU means border or no border). If UK leaves the EU CU, then border needed either between RoI and NI or between NI and rest of UK

[Comte Flaneur]

Claudius you wrote

“To the people who voted for Brexit (including a few older relatives of mine) they had enough of a centralised Brussels "union" which has become anti-democratic, bullying and often trivial.
The EU had a real chance to facilitate the member states with open trade, rational discourse and co-operative approaches to common issues and problems.
Had they bothered addressing that in any rational way Brexit would not have happened and in 2019, other countries are on the outer from the EU hierarchy and may pull out some time soon.”

Your first sentence: Could you explain, with examples, what you mean by a centralised Brussels union which has become anti-democratic bullying and trivial?’

Your second sentence about open trade, rational discourse and co-operative approaches: what point are you trying to make and may you could illustrate with some examples of what you mean?

Likewise you third sentence which other countries do you think are thinking of pulling out? More generally what informs your opinions of the EU?

[Claudius2]

Alex
By far the majority of the Australian population (76.1% in 2018) are from the UK and Ireland (Ireland accounts for around 9%, and the UK just over 67%).
So yes, most Australian are still ethnically UK or Ireland.
In my case, I am both.
To say that there are "fewer and fewer" in 2019 is simply false.

Your argument about why people voted for Brexit is also a false narrative.
I was in the UK for the month leading up to and during the vote, and I talked to numerous relatives and contacts there.
So I'll make a few points.

Firstly, I was a little surprised that the Brexit vote topped 50% (there are all sorts of theories now as to why the polls were all wrong) and did not have a stake in it personally.
Blair must have been totally nuts allowing the vote and at the same time campaigning against it - that is not just risky but suicidal, and he had to fall on his sword.

I still have numerous relatives in the UK, though mainly outside of London which was anti-Brexit.
I have little doubt that to many, it was a protest vote but that is the case in all plebiscites and elections. Again, Blair should have known better.
Yet it is now 2 years and eight months since the vote.
It is clear that the central govt really had no clear idea of what Brexit would mean, and still doesn't.
To go to the people with a vote like this and without a clear idea of what the consequences are.
And I have to say that the remainer campaign was a shocker. All they bothered to say was that: "we are stronger together" without indicating what that actually means at any tangible level.

The Brexiteers hit a few raw nerves in the UK, and UKIP was quite effective in the central parts of England.
A few rels voted for Brexit simply as they did not want a central EU taking power from both the UK per se and from its citizens.
That in itself was a powerful message, and it is worth noting that outside of London, Scotland and Nth Ireland, the Brexit vote was strong - leading to a "me vs them" feeling especially in the Midlands.

It was also notable that there was a big difference in the vote based on age. Older residents (like my rels there) had lived at a time when the UK was not part of the EU; Britain joined the (then) EEC in 1973 by a 2:1 margin yet the model presented to the public at that time was of a common market.
It is worth noting that Charles de Gaulle had blocked British membership before that - a fact that few seem to recall in 2019, and that was STILL an issue to some older voters in 2016.
His resignation in 1969 did leave a pathway for the UK BUT I can promise you that many older UK residents always resented this fact.

It is simply wrong to say that voters "gave no thought" to the consequences.
Rather, I would say that the Parliament massively screwed up in that regard.
How on earth can you call for a vote like this and have no idea how to make it happen?
The fact that no-one else has as yet left the EU of course means that there was no template but at the same time, that does not preclude its development.

There IS a kernel of truth in the idea of pride, but it is much more complex than that.
As an example, my father (despite being Irish) was in the British Army from 1936 to 1947 (he was sent to India after WW2) and spent 6 yrs of his life fighting the Nazis.
Similarly, if you go to Nanjing in Jiangsu, China, there is still a lot of hatred of Japan due to the invasion and occupation in 1937/38.
My wife comes from Changzhou which is not far from Nanjing, and even in 2019, they don't like Japan.

A central part of that pride is who can make decisions for the people, and that is a fundamental point made by UKIP.
This is not "just" pride it is more about how the people can influence government decisions.
The people can vote for their local reps, but not for EU (which in any case is made up of numerous bodies - Parliament, Council, Commission, Bank, et al).

Surely, the desire to self-govern cannot be so easily dismissed as a conspiracy theory or stupidity. It is a fundamental aspect of nationhood.

It is also worth noting that the UK has traded with the rest of Europe for thousands of years, and that obvious fact seems to be ignored in the Brexit battleground.
And for a common market to exist, the countries involved only need to agree to abide by a set of rules.
The UK did that for a very long time and still does with other nations.

Comte Flaneur
After reading your highly emotive and at times paranoid conspiracy theory, there is clearly no point in trying to reason with you.
If you want a rational conversation I am happy to talk, but have no interest in your sophistry and hyperbole.
And oh no, not ANOTHER Russian plot.....

[AlexR]

Claudius,

I never said that non-Anglo-Saxons were a majority in Australia, but like Palestinians in Israel and Hispanics in America, they are a dynamic part of the population with a higher birth rate. They are the new face of Australia because immigrants have energy and motivation often lacking in native-born citizens.

I don’t understand why you keep referring to Blair in your post. David Cameron was the prime minister responsible for this mess.

The Brexiters are primarily “little Englanders” blinded by a bunch of myths and rhetoric. They were easily manipulated. A significant percentage of these voters would change their mind if allowed to vote again (which is unlikely to happen).
After David Cameron, the number one villain in the story is Boris Johnson, a perfidious SOB who turned his coat and jumped ship when he saw how badly things were going.
If England went into the EU in the first place, it was because it was in the country’s interest (you know the famous saying “England has no friends, only interests”). You cannot seriously say that England has not benefited greatly from membership, and it would take considerable bad faith to say that prosperity would have been equalled or surpassed if Britain had never joined…
Sorry, I cannot agree with your statement “It is simply wrong to say that voters ‘gave no thought’ to the consequences”.
The British went into the vote the way foolish young people elope. Of course, such marriages can work out, but chances are they won’t.
The outcome, the practical ramifications were NOT discussed leading up to the Brexit vote. People voted emotionally, nationalistically. The present surprised reaction of some British people of what they will lose and be excluded from is like smokers who are surprised when they learn they have lung cancer….

C’mon, there is more than a “kernel of truth” to the pride factor in Brexit. How many elected officials, journalists, etc. objectively weighted up the advantages and disadvantages of belonging to the EU? Only the bureaucratic nature, overpaid civil servants, and absurd regulations were stressed. Not the integration of England into a multipolar world where they don’t count a great deal all on their own.
By the way, the EU bureaucracy fell down badly too, and did not take the threat of Brexit seriously, or do much to stop it.

As for the anti-democratic nature of the EU, I must agree with you to a great extent. In addition, the height of absurdity (and this is the fault of the British) is that my English wife was not even allowed to vote in the Brexit referendum although she is a UK citizen living in the EU!
The European elections are to be held in May. As always, the only outcome in France that interests anyone is how national political parties fare. European issues are hardly discussed. No one can tell you the names of who locally represents them in the EU parliament…
The irony of this all ius that the idea of “self government” is an illusion, and England will be forced to accept EU regulations left and right in any event. And it is not to the UK’s honor that they will reject the EU Charter of Human Rights.

No, the heart of Brexit is irrational. It is the reflection of an island mentality in which 20 year olds still refer to a trip to France or Spain as “going to Europe”. Decidedly, the British are the odd man out. Will the EU be better off without the UK? Already,that a member state should secede is nothing short of a slap in the face. And then there’s the big hole in the budget. Hard core Brexiters earnestly hope that Italy’s shaky economy and curious coalition government may further upset the apple cart.

Would you be willing to make a prediction as to the UK economy in 5 or 10 years from now? From all I see and hear, the country will suffer and the economy will shrink. Perhaps you have a different view.

Best regards,
Alex R.

[Claudius2]

Alex
Sorry I should have said Cameron and not Blair.
Maybe it was a Freudian slip as an ex-PM....

You DID say that Anglo- Aussies are getting fewer and fewer and they are still the vast majority.
But like most nations, the ethic mix is slowly changing.
Over here in Singapore, there are few Anglo-based people once you get out of the city centre.

Whether Brexit is rational or irrational is a moot point.
What has been a disaster was the simple fact that Cameron called a plebiscite with no real idea of what would happen in the event of Brexit.
And in the last 32 months, it really has been rather sad to watch the endless arguing on all sides.
No wonder Cameron resigned as PM as he did not have to worry about the trail of shit he left behind.

My argument however is that the economic and social impact of Brexit could have been contained simply by having a clear pathway to the separation - and that is still nowhere near the case after 32 months.

I do not agree that the UK will have to accept EU regulations.
Australia, Singapore and Indonesia (the three countries I have lived in) trade with the UK every day of the week and it is quite amicable.
However, if you see Brexit as a divorce, the issue becomes rather nasty.
There is little doubt that the EU will try and "punish" the UK BUT can I also say that the individual countries that benefit from trade with the UK (including all those French wine sellers...) will not be in a hurry to destroy their own markets in the UK.
And that is largely my argument. I import my own wine from Beaune (Remoissenet) and from Australia (several suppliers) and simply have to put up with the bureaucracy - paperwork, taxes, duties, shipping, whatever.
But that is always the case in virtually any industry.
So why can't the UK simply sit down with the individual countries and NOT the EU and agree to terms?

My overall point is that trade exists as it benefits both parties.
That is the first lecture in International Business which I taught for well over two decades.
If the parties can act responsibly then social and economic fallout can be minimised if not eliminated.
It simply does not serve anyone to scuttle trade relations.
In relation to the EU Charter on Human Rights, the UN also has a raft of similar charters and realistically, both the EU and UN don't need to compete.

Can I also make one other point.
The UK was ALWAYS the odd man out and the "going to Europe" idea is quite true.
It is also the case that the UK has fought wars with various European states for thousands of yrs, and to quote the Hall or Mirrors in the Palais Versailles, "the history of Europe is the history of war".

In summary, I really don't think anyone can clearly say what is going to happen tomorrow let alone in 5-10 yrs.
My appeal is for cool heads to prevail.
In the meantime, I will have a nice Chablis in this balmy weather!

[AlexR]

Claudius,

I am in complete agreement with the first part of your post, but less so as it goes on.

How not to see Brexit as a divorce? And the corollary: a nasty one?

Brexiters think, as you appear to, that all it takes is bilateral agreements with 150 countries to make up for leaving the EU. This is a massive undertaking taking years of complicated negotiations, and the outlook for dealing with Britain’s most important trading partner, the EU, are not very encouraging. WTO rules will not reinstate the customs union. No way. It is a question of a leap into the Great Unknown.

What I am getting at is the ease with which you bring wine from France into Singapore cannot be compared with importing French wine into Britain after Brexit. It’s a different ball game. I don’t pretend to know on what terms EU goods will come into Britain, but things simply cannot go on as before.
It’s an unbelievable mess. My wife took the plane to England today. But what about flights after Brexit (British carriers, customs and immigration, air traffic control, etc.)? And if I take a plane to England, I will need a visa after Brexit…
No, a big change is looming. It is not just a question of drinking tea and carrying on!
British business leaders are shitting bricks and massive stockpiling is taking place.

You make a very valid point: EU producers have every interest to continue selling their goods to the British market. And there will be intense lobbying to that effect (I’m sure there already is). But why should Britain be given terms of trade any better than those with Peru or Kenya if there is no deal in the next month and a half?
One can always hope for a last minute deus ex machina, coup de théâtre (please excuse the foreign terms), but it seems highly unlikely.

As we are all aware, the crux of the stalemate is the Irish border (among a host of other tremendously challenging and complicated issues…). And that one seems about as insoluble as the Israel/Palestine situation!

The whole problem with Brexit stems from xenophobia. The basis of the EU is the free circulation of goods, services *and* people. Lots of English people don’t like foreigners, so they wanted to opt out of the people part, which was a no go. How can the UK possibly go back to a customs union with Europe that would, in effect, let them bypass all other obligations? The belief among many English people that this is possible makes the Europeans see red. It is not a question of “punishing” the UK, but of refusing to let terms to be dictated by one country to 27 others, running counter to the very foundation of their association.

As for standards and regulations, it seems a pipe dream to imagine that the UK will be exempt from EU rulings and laws. How could it be otherwise?

Best regards,
Alex

[Comte Flaneur]

Claudius

These were polite questions and so I would appreciate it if you could enlighten me, because you certainly come across as opinionated on the subject, so I ask again (I am genuinely curious):

Claudius you wrote

“To the people who voted for Brexit (including a few older relatives of mine) they had enough of a centralised Brussels "union" which has become anti-democratic, bullying and often trivial.

The EU had a real chance to facilitate the member states with open trade, rational discourse and co-operative approaches to common issues and problems.

Had they bothered addressing that in any rational way Brexit would not have happened and in 2019, other countries are on the outer from the EU hierarchy and may pull out some time soon.”

Your first sentence: Could you explain, with examples, what you mean by a centralised Brussels union which has become anti-democratic bullying and trivial?’ Why in your opinion are EU governance institutions less democratic?

Your second sentence about open trade, rational discourse and co-operative approaches: what point are you trying to make and may you could illustrate with some examples of what you mean?

Likewise you third sentence which other countries do you think are thinking of pulling out? Which countries are these?

More generally what informs your opinions of the EU?

[Claudius2]

Comte
If you want to ask reasonable questions I am happy to oblige but if you want to rant and rave about emotive conspiracy theories I am not interested.
Secondly, I do not have to justify myself to you or anyone else. You are coming across as an arrogant jerk, not just a conspiracy theorist and sanctimonious zealot.

I am rather confused by your question about sources of information and even why you would care.
I spent 23 years at Universities teaching International Business not to mention studying it for many years. By the way, I started my career as a psychologist but changed course.
If I go back to the 60s and 70s, EU membership was often discussed by my family due to their personal interest in the topic.

I often read EU economic reports over some decades as I relied on economic data (not just from the EU but from many sources) and quite frankly, I progressively become bored with them.
The EU does compile a lot of useful data but many of their reports (and there are too many to mention) show what to me is the central problem - all care, no responsibility.
It remains me of dealing with govt in Australia. Unless every interest group agrees and contributes the way the govt wants, they can't do anything.

My older rels in the UK are NOT in London. A few younger folks are, as they moved for work but the older group all remained in places like Surrey (ok not far from London), Chester, Liverpool, Birkenhead and the Midlands.
They never saw themselves as part of Europe per se, and frankly, I don't blame them. Endless wars for thousands of years take their toll.

I don't know where you were or what you were doing when Britain joined the (then) EEC.
It was largely sold in the UK on being a "common market" which is why is was called the EEC not EU. And I am unashamedly in favour of free trade.
Living in a country like Singapore, I would have starved to death and died of thirst without it (most water used in Singapore comes from Malaysia and Sg produces very little food).

Several rels were in favour of the EEC at the time, and the vote was 2:1. It was sold as common sense and a way of getting rid of unnecesary barriers and red tape.
Makes snese.

Moving on to 2016, a central argument rels put forward re: Brexit is that the UK did just fine before the EEC/EU and got on with Europe if and when needed.
And arguments such as: "the world has changed" which is what I heard from remainers in the lead-up to the vote, failed to outline what that meant and how it affected the people who were being asked to vote.
Similarly, "we are stronger together" was met with some frustration as the remainers gave little more than sophistry and bombast instead of reasoned arguments.

So going back to the time the UK joined the EEC, despite France blocking them previously (and many in the UK did not forget that) I thought it was a great ideas as it made things simpler and easier.
Yet I would argue that it should have stayed that way.

I am not sure if you are just being troll regarding democracy.
The EU is NOT a democratic institution and never was.
If you refer to the 1979 decision to add a European Parliament (in addition to the rest of the bodies) I will fall over and laugh.
If you can recall what happened then, the EU formed the EP largely due to complains of a "democratic deficit".
All the EP does is approve or reject legislation. Big deal.
The European Commission which is unelected, is the main decision making body and trying to argue that the EP was enacted to make the EU democratic or even accountable is folly.
Rather, its current structure is more akin to a hydra.

By the way, the remainers are even bigger bullies than the EU itself.
Cameron called the plebiscite.
He campaigned to remain and failed. Quite frankly, he was crazy. He then resigned and left the rest of the Party to sort out the mess. Which has been a disaster.
So since the vote, the remainers have done nothing but whine and complain. Grow up.
It is the height of arrogance for them to say that the Brexiters were stupid, evil, controlled by Russians or just plain vindictive.
I cannot imagine anyone saying that there needs to be a second vote if the remain side had won.

If Cameron and the remainers had not done such a terrible job of espousing the virtues of remaining, the UK would not been in the current mess.
They need to look in the mirror and ask why they screwed up so badly.

I will just give one last comment on politics in 2019.
In all of my years, I have never seen some internal division across the western world.
Different opinions are a good thing. Democracy is designed to not just allow for it but to see it as a normal and healthy part of politics.
Yet in 2019, everyone seems to think that THEY are the controller of what is morally/ethically right and that anyone with a different opinion is - like you implied - stupid, evil, controlled by Russian spies or a MAGA hat wearer.

The initial topic was what are UK wine drinkers going to do after Brexit?
Well, I am back to where we all started.
The sellers want to sell, the buyers want the wine. Make a deal.

[AlexR]

Claudius,

Thanks for your reply and let us all try to keep a cool head when discussing a very controversial subject.

I see your point about Britain's entry into the EEC, but I believe that you are somewhat looking back on history with rose-colored glasses. The relationship between the UK and the EEC was rocky from the very beginning. The important comment you made was that the Brits originally wanted in because of the free trade agreement, whereas the Founding Fathers of the EEC had a vision that went much further than this, and was eminently political.
The move towards the latter is when things started to get really bad between the UK and the EU. In short, political union got up the nose of the English, because they hadn't seen, or didn't want to see, that this is where a customs union would (to a lesser or greater extent) inevitably lead.
Please stop to think that the more ambitious manifestation of the EEC, the EU, dates from 1993, but that Margaret Thatcher's famous friction with the EEC goes back much further and that her famous "I want my money back!" dates from 1979...

I fully agree with you that the campaign to remain in the EU was piss poor all around. Cameron's most definitely to blame, but so are the EU representatives and wishy-washy Jeremy Corbyn. As for Corbyn, he still can't talk straight about Brexiteven even now, and only wants to trigger a general election that he would most likely win. His rank and file are overwhelmingly Remainers.

An article in Le Monde today said that people are overplaying the immediate effects of Brexit (which will *not* be utter chaos, in their opinion), but badly underappreciateing the long term ones. This is why, everyone, including myself, is talking through their hat with regard to the consequences of Brexit . Economic indicators of various sorts have not been good over the past year, but the veritable result will only be known after several years.
https://www.ft.com/content/cf51e840-714 ... f383b09ff9

My French paper seems to think that Theresa May will obtain an extension without too much difficulty from the other 27 EU countries, but that the absolute set-in-stone deadline for deal or no deal is the 1st of July.

These are certainly exciting times!

As for the polarisation of politics, I couldn't agree with you more. Communication is very difficult for many people. I'm guilty too. That others should have opposing opinions to mine is par for the course. But, I can't help it, when they start defending Trump, saying he's a good president, my blood boils and - me being me - I find it hard to keep my opinions to myself... Maybe I should drink more wine and stay mellow .

With regard to wine, and specificically French wine imports into the UK, a good yardstick would be to note the retail price of a leading brand (Mouton Cadet, for instance) in February 2019 and then again 5 years later. Of course, that wouldn't tell the whole story, but it would give a good idea of the general trend.

Best regards,
Alex R.

[Claudius2]

Alex you need to stop roughing it and pass on that Mouton Cadet.
Sometimes I think I am lucky to be in Singapore as I can talk politics in the US or Euro zone without tearing my hair out or at least what is left.
Maybe we should all accept that we are not in control of everything and we just have to get along. The western world just seems to be embroiled in infighting. But none of that is new.

If the UK does well after Brexit the EU mandarins will piss themselves. Sorry to say that but they will do everything they can to punish the UK not out of malice alone but out of concern that if the Usk thrives post Brixit, whatever that looks like, the EU will look very silly. It is as much a survival instinct as it is ego and pride.

As for Trump I have no stake in it all. I just watch from the sidelines but as with Brixit I’d say that Hollary lost the unlosable election and she and the Democrats must account for that. I have to say that her deplorable comment at the time had people in Asia wondering if she had lost it and I don’t see any real leadership talent popping up since then.
There is simply no point getting pissed off with politicians or the public though I do draw a line with mass murderers like Hitler Stalin Mao et al.
So my moral of the day is that the more absolute power they have the more people die. I can’t express that more strongly and I think that it will not be long before it all happens again.

[AKR]

Could the great EU/UK schism really lead to a BDX 'Bargo?

That seems like both sides would be cutting off their nose to spite their own face.

But who knows.

Politicians can do crazy things.

Look at the great oil embargo of the 70s.

Or the US aviation parts embargo of the Islamic Republic, which has been going on for 4 decades I think.

The EU could even blockade Rioja, which would be a comparable quaff if Bordeaux is no longer available.

Dark times indeed.

Build the war chest, fill the castle's cellars.

[Claudius2]

Arvind
Despite my contempt for most politicians and my hatred of authoritarian rule, I DO have a lot of faith in markets.
So given the need to sell and the demand from buyers, whatever disruption there is arising from brexit, I would place my money on the side of commerce and not bureaucratic fiat as the solver of the puzzle.

If the EU mandarins start blocking trade - whether it be Rioja, Bordeaux or anywhere else, then I'd expect other countries to threaten to pull out of the EU.
I spent some time in Europe last year and my friends in Italy took the view that if the UK can successfully pull out of the EU (and that does not mean they pull out of Europe) Italy will be next.
I did not hear a lot of anti-EU sentiment in most other countries in Europe, but there was heaps of it in Italy.
Italy is now in recession and Italians don't want to hear platitudes and slogans, they would like something done about massive unemployment, low incomes, mass migration, urban decay, crime, drug abuse, crumbling infrastructure, failing banks and rising costs.
And those in the south will often point out that the Costa Nostra and Mafia are regaining power.

The issue for the EU is not just a schism but an existential crisis.
If the UK can show that they can survive and ideally prosper after the "divorce", then I would suggest that Italy and possibly Hungary will be next.
Anyway I'm vising both those countries soon and it will be good to hear a few opinions.

I studied a lot of history over my life and I was born only a decade or so after WW2, which was abundantly clear to my parents and most other adults at the time.
In the previous century, authoritarian rulers and tin pot dictators led to the death of hundreds of millions of people, not just in wars but in direct attacks on their own people (eg, Mao's GLP and CR, Stalin's reign of terror, Pol Pot, Idi Amin, whatever).

I am sick of politics and politicians. Even over here in Singapore, we get a 24/7 diet of politics.
It is as if human beings are no longer individuals any more. We are totally beholden to political nonsense. We have all been lost in some crazy maze.
Hmmmm. I think I will open a nice Clos de Vougeot......

[AlexR]

Claudius,

What a different perspective seen from Europe! You refer to “the EU mandarins starting to block trade”, as though 27 countries would dump on poor little England.

In fact, England made a choice and now needs to come to terms with it, and face up to the logical consequences.
The things the UK would be leaving were pretty obvious from the beginning, don’t you think?

A situation similar to Norway or Switzerland was possible, but the Brits could not get their act together. They were/are unwilling to back down on crucial points to reach an agreement. Why in the world should the onus of “no deal” be on the EU? Hell, the British can’t decide amongst themselves! That is the crux of the problem.

You are right that Britain’s withdrawal from the EU sets a precedent, and that Brussels does not want other countries to be shown that it’s an easy and painless thing to do.

There is indeed anti-EU sentiment throughout Europe, especially since the financial crisis and the rise of populism. The French vote approving the Maastricht treaty only just scraped by and the 2005 referendum in France to approve the so-called EU constitution was defeated. As it was in the Netherlands. The EU’s anti-democratic side came to the fore at that time when both of those countries just pushed the thing though their national parliaments. The people were overruled.
The media are hugely in favour of the EU. It’s a different story with the people.

As for Italy, they are right to complain, and to complain bitterly about the EU’s lack of assistance in dealing with illegal migrants. However, the other problems you cite (massive unemployment, low incomes, mass migration, urban decay, crime, drug abuse, crumbling infrastructure, failing banks and rising costs, etc.) are all of their own doing. The EU cannot be made a scapegoat.

I agree fully with you that the EU is undergoing an existential crisis.
Whether the UK benefits from seceding (bets anyone?) will only be known in 5 or 10 years’ time. Should that be the case, it would send a strong signal to other EU countries.
I’m of the opinion, however, that the destiny of the rest of Europe is so inextricably linked that it cannot come apart.

Can you imagine leaving the euro, for instance? France’s far right political party supported this and then were the laughing stock of the country when they tried to explain how it would work…

Your wrote “Hmmmm. I think I will open a nice Clos de Vougeot......”. Gosh, I’ve been so disappointed with that wine! I had a tasting at the house of 16 of ‘em last year, from various producers and vintages and the overall level was mediocre. I am reminded of Longfellow’s poem:

There was a little girl,
Who had a little curl,
Right in the middle of her forehead.

When she was good,
She was very good indeed,
But when she was bad she was horrid.

All the best,
Alex

[Claudius2]

Alex
I am an unabashed lover of white and red Burgundy.
Now drinking 2001 Daniel Rion Clos Vougeot which is fully mature and a good rather than great wine but Rion isn’t a great producer in any case. I had it listed for current drinking so popped and consumed. Excellent color and nice nose but a little simple for a GC.
I prefer Chambertin to David Cameron and Certan de May to Theresa May!

[AlexR]

Claudius,

I just spent 2 weeks in Burgundy, visiting 25 domaines.

I need to write my report and post.

Alex R.

[AKR]

I don't see how the UK all of a sudden is going to become corrupt, lazy, stupid (name your ill) just because they don't take orders from Brussels any more. They've been a prosperous, healthy nation for a long time. I don't think that changes whether they're in the EU or not.

It was much more dicey that countries with systematic cultures of generally not following any rules would magically change just because they changed their scrip. Were Greeks or Italians going to start paying taxes no matter what currency it was in? or who was collecting it -- Brussels or Athens?

Self determination is a strong force for people.

[Claudius2]

Arv
Agree completely with your comments and had a good laugh.
I have both Greek and Italian friends and both will argue all day that tax evasion and graft are part of the scenery.
My Greek friend by the way is the nephew of a previous Greek PM. He DOES know the system.

I am surrounded by two countries (Malaysia and Indonesia) where graft, corruption, nepotism, cronyism, industrial scale looting of state resources (eg, IMBD in Malaysia), incompetence, blatant self-interest and deluded self-aggrandisement are all part of the fabric. The people have been hijacked and their countries adversely affected by scum politicians.
And people wonder why I hate politics....

The countries in the EU have not just different cultures and attitudes to life, they have been killing and invading each other for thousands of years.
For the same reason, Japan and China hate each other.

Yet the above is somehow forgotten or ignored by the millennials who pined that it may be harder to go to the Cote D'Azur for holidays or Paris for shopping.

I am all for free trade and all for a level playing field (though don't tell that to the Chinese, I'll probably end up in an "re-education" camp but for my own good of course...)
And irrespective of the EU and country specific bureaucrats, trade exists due to supply and demand, not political or administrative fiat.

A central theme in my argument is that trade is about buyers and sellers, not about bureaucratic regulations.
I sometimes think I have lived in a time capsule, and been transported to a future time zone where everyone has a govt mandated and controlled chip in their brain.
If the future is all about more centralised authority, more govt control of individuals, the surveillance state and mass indoctrination, I am moving to Antarctica.
As I have argued numerous times, the Chinese people here are amused that the west simply forgets the atrocities you yet with all of that.

[AlexR]

Claudius,

You state that millennials forget the past European wars. I don’t think that is quite true. The Germans will for many years carry the burden of their guilt for the Nazi period and every French town has a huge war memorial (or two). That having been said, isn’t it odd that despite three wars with Germany since 1870, France still considers England their hereditary enemy?
Be that as it may, there is more rivalry and miscomprehension between countries nowadays rather than hate or feelings of aggression (or only rarely so). Those times are past.

I admit that “strength in diversity” rings a little hollow. Certainly, the byzantine nature of EU institutions doesn’t help.

You say that “trade is about buyers and sellers, not about bureaucratic regulations”. That’s largely true, of course, but political factors are also at play here and some regulations are in the public interest and are well-deserved.

I, like you, fear a Big Brotherlike society. How amazing that Orwell imagined this in 1948! The proliferation of fake news on the Internet is very chilling, as are the ways we are monitored and manipulated.

Best regards,
Alex R.