2019 Bordeaux EP Campaign

[Ognik]

Sorry Alex, but you're absolutly wrong. No fake news at all. You will see, i'am afraid.
Was.

[AlexR]

Arv,

You call the people who come to the tasting clients.
And yet, they are unable to buy a single thing!

The wines won't even be marketed until 2 or 3 months later.

If I understand you correctly, unless the international wine trade tastes the wines in March/early April, you believe they will not be put on sale.

This may be the case, but I would be very surprised.

Imagine an importer offered ten cases of Lafite. Do you honestly think he needs to taste it before ordering it?

Best regards,
Alex R.

[Ognik]

Lafite and some others will be a different story.
Big desaster for many i suppose.

[AlexR]

All i ask is for you fine people to stick to the *facts* not conjecture.

Negataive vibes beget negative vibes.

The Corona hysteria is the perfect illustration of a hyperconnected world gone haywire.

I must accept it, but I cannot approve of it.

Alex R.

[dstgolf]

I must side with Alex on his arguments of fake news. The media is causing a mass hysteria and everyone is falling right into the pit. Yes covid-19 is a bug the world has never seen and there is no immunity but it shown to be far less infectious than influenza A. The latter is barely mentioned in the press annually but it killed just over 35k people in 2018-19 in the USA alone. Where was the panic on this or its annual occurrence?? Covid-19 infects all ages but children show few to no symptoms but can pass the disease to others. There is conflicting info regarding its effect on those over 60 but most deaths are sporadically clustered in the 30-50 y/o age group. Yes the bug needs to be taken seriously just like influenza should as well as but the press and general public leave the latter alone. Just like norovirus hitting the press when a cruise ship becomes inflicted it hits all of the press but you never hear about its prevalence at resorts, hospitals, food halls, buffets and just about anywhere people gather. It's not fun having people draining diarrhea and vomiting with many with underlying illnesses succumbing to dehydration and worse...death. Yes the world can be a scary place but it always has been but for the most part the public walks through life without seeing or knowing what is around them until now where you get a bug that is certainly no where a new Ebola with exceedingly high mortality rate but the press has hyped this one beyond reality and everyone needs to calm down. Just like you can't prevent the spread of the flu without a vaccination program this will eventually come under control and the world is not ending as some in the press would like you to believe. Life goes on and I suggest there are worse problems in the world than corona virus and people need to calm down instead of fear mongering. May everyone be safe and exercise caution but don't give up living.

[felixp21]

A lot of ignorance here, which is fine, as we are wine lovers, and not necessarily doctors.

Firstly, let me try to explain how a pandemic works. As a fit middle aged male with no significant past history, and on no medications whatsoever, in all likelihood if I contract Covid-19 I will experience flu-like symptoms for a week and feel ok after that. As a doctor in Australia, which is coming into winter,I have been told I am more than 70% likely to get the bug in the next six months. Big deal. Same for many of the attendees of EP 2020. That is not the problem, and that is NOT what every medical professional in the World is panicky about.
The problem with this virus, and what makes it so dangerous, is it's ability to infect during incubation. In effect, I would be a walking time-bomb for 14 days, carrying a virus with no immunity in the community, and therefore an alarming attack rate (approaching influenza A). The problem, please try to understand this, is when I come into professional or casual contact with compromised patients, those that are elderly or have systemic illness. The current mortality rate for these groups of patients approaches 3.7%. For every million of these people infected, 37,000 will die.

So when you say it's "not serious" or it's "less a problem compared to influenza" you clearly are thinking only of yourself and not of the people you might infect should you contract this illness. The chief epidemiologists both in Australia and the USA are predicting death rates from this illness in the tens of millions, so yes, it is not a "media beat up" that so many stupid people across the internet are trying to make out.
That is why the French Government today prohibited crowds of more than 1,000 people congregating. They have a social responsibility to that 20% of their population that is at grave risk from this disease.
That is why the Italian Government isolated tens of millions of people in Northern Italy, and accepted a loss of tens of billions with cessation of industry.

So infantile are Alex's comments about my "schadenfreude" that I really couldn't be bothered answering them, but I do indeed wish those travelling to Bordeaux a great trip, and the very best of luck!!!!

[marcs]

All i ask is for you fine people to stick to the *facts* not conjecture.

Negataive vibes beget negative vibes.

The Corona hysteria is the perfect illustration of a hyperconnected world gone haywire.

I must accept it, but I cannot approve of it.

Alex R.

The facts are that it is ten to fifty times more fatal than the flu, probably significantly more communicable, and that the worlds largest economy put in place the largest quarantine in history, at a cost to them of a trillion dollars or more, because their experience of the disease was so frightening.

[dragzworthy]

Alex
Felix isn't telling you what's outside your front door, he's telling what's going to happen...it's a prediction and I agree with it. Just because you sit in Bordeaux doesn't mean you can forecast the world's demand for Bordeaux better than anyone and, in fact, someone in china is probably better placed for that.

[jal]

I admit I am confused.

I went to a soccer game with my son this weekend in Liverpool, England. A lifelong dream. We high fived every fan around during the game when our team scored.
On his return to Israel, my son is supposed to self quarantine for 14 days, he lives in a rented apartment with 3 other roommates, does that mean he can’t leave his room? How ridiculous is that?
In the meantime, I’m stuck in Manchester due to plane difficulties, I won’t be happy if asked to self quarantine on my return.

Questions
Is a quarantine of millions of people helpful at all?
Is it even feasible?
Are politicians overreacting just to show some sign of control?
Is the media creating a panic or just feeding on the actions of world leaders?

All I heard so far is washing my hands after touching anything while singing happy birthday twice, seriously?

[AlexR]

Hi Felix,

You wote “A lot of ignorance here, which is fine, as we are wine lovers, and not necessarily doctors’.

Um, er, were you ignorant of the fact that dstgolf, who disagrees with you, is a medical doctor?

You also wrote that “The chief epidemiologists both in Australia and the USA are predicting death rates from this illness in the tens of millions, so yes, it is not a "media beat up" that so many stupid people across the internet are trying to make out”.
Well, time will tell Felix. I hope that I am right in predicting that this doomsday scenario is way off the mark.
And can you honestly say that the media haven’t seized on the virus story ad nasuseum, buitl it up, in a word *exaggerated* it?

It does seem rather perfidious of you to wish the BWE contingent good luck after your pronouncements.

Dragzworthy,

In fact, I firmly believe that the ominous predictions you and Felix are hawking are off the mark. You are certainly seeing the reality not only of the illness, but also the market for Bordeaux through your own particular prism.
Oh, silly me, I forgot, you have a better handle on things than me who lives here…

There are two issues: the development of the Corina virus in France (currently miniscule) and the market for Bordeaux wines.
It is true that the fearmongering has contributed to a significant drop in the world’s stock markets which could affect not only Bordeaux wines, but all other goods and services. I know for a fact that people have begun to hoard food in European countries.
This is psychosis, this is the opposite of science.
There are more and more snowflakes around.
Reason out the window.

One point that has not been answered is about the virus’s spread in, let’s say, the US. Is the shoe on the other foot? Should people be advised not to go to America – or any of the 109 other countries where there have been cases of the virus?

Alex R.

[AlexR]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -reassured

Alex R.

[felixp21]

jal...
the genie is out of the bottle, the reason we quarantine in a pandemic is to slow, not stop, the transmission rate. This gives our medical facilities the chance to cope with the illness, rather than needing hundreds of thousands of ICU beds all at once, the slowing of the infection rate allows hospitals to treat more patients over a longer period of time.
it is a terrible inconvenience to all concerned, but there is literally not a country in the World that could cope with a sudden, mass break-out, hence the draconian quarantine laws.
Wuhan medico's say the mortality of Covid would have been around 18% if there were no medical facilities to treat presenting cases. Thousands have been saved by intensive care measures such as assisted ventilation, hypotension management, core temperature control etc etc. (dramatic videos available online of Italian ICU patients, it will give people a better insight into how serious this disease is.... happily, the 38yr old healthy male who was Italy's first Covid case has recovered after 10 days in ICU on assisted ventilation, had he not been able to obtain hospital treatment, he would have died over a week ago.)

Italy now totally shut down, that is, the whole country.These are the measures that need to be taken. France will do the same, as we also will do here in Australia. It is only a matter of when, not if.

[felixp21]

I had a good laugh when I read Alex's comment "I hope my prediction that this doomsday scenario is way off the mark"

firstly, it is not a "doomsday scenario" no-one has, to my knowledge, used that term. It is a serious pandemic, but thankfully not another Ebola.
secondly, what are your "expert" opinions based on? lol, maybe just a feeling you have in your waters????
because those stupid little epidemiologists who some other idiots call "World experts" totally disagree with you. Every computer model disagrees with you. Italy and China, each having shut their entire country down, disagree with you. The Governors of multiple States in the USA, and Australia, and many other countries disagree with you. The brokers on Wall street and every other stock exchange in the World disagree with you. If only they knew what you knew, that this is a media beat up and everything is gonna be just fine. Everyone should just go about their usual business, go travelling to other countries, go to parties and tastings, it's all fine!!!!!

Now, why on Earth do people call some Bordelaise arrogant? Can't imagine why!!!

[JimHow]

I had a wonderful time in Paris last week, saw absolutely no signs of panic or disruption. A few masks at the airport.
I had a wonderful time in Washington DC this past weekend, everyone going about their business on a beautiful sunny weekend.

Eighteen of us have every intention of traveling to Bordeaux next week.
We'll use common sense in our travels but I can honestly say I personally have no fear whatsoever of traveling to France.
All 19 of the properties we have scheduled to visit are warmly looking forward to our visit, preparing menus, tastings, etc.
The only thing I see stopping us would be some sort of government shutdown of transportation systems, flights between the US and France, trains between Paris and Bordeaux, etc.
Otherwise, we will post our pictures from Lafite, Mouton, et al!

After the Bordeaux trip I'll be flying to Alaska -- through Seattle -- for a week of pretrial motions in my murder case up there. I was in NYC last week, where a "state of emergency" exists, and it was business as usual.

Sounds like you are saying that we are crazy for not canceling our trip, Felix!

[stefan]

There have been 17 confirmed cases of covid-19 in all of Nouvelle Aquitaine. It is safer to be in Bordeaux than in many places in the USA. Obviously we all will use good sense to protect ourselves and others from contracting cover-19, but we are more likely to die from a vehicle accident than from covid-19. Of course, the situation might get much worse, but then flights will be cancelled.

[DavidG]

Alex, will the en primeur events be affected by the French government's ban on gatherings of >1000?
https://www.france24.com/en/20200308-fr ... oronavirus

[felixp21]

Hi Jim,
hope it all goes well, you guys seem to have a great time there. The French Govt will upgrade to level 3 within the next 48 hours, this is extremely likely to affect your domestic travel schedule in France. I would suggest you check with your travel agent if you intend getting from Paris to Bordeaux by rail.
I would be flabbergasted if EP 2020 wasn't postponed at some stage this week.

[JimHow]

We can only control what we can control.

[SF Ed]

From my point of view, the biggest risk most folks have traveling right now is the airport itself combined with the risk of quarantine on either side.

If the 2020 France team can get themselves to BDX, they are going to have a great and almost certainly safe time. Certainly safer than me living in SF and not traveling anywhere. If they can get there, I think the harder part will be getting home in a timely manner and without quarantine.

We only get one life and there is risk/return attached to everything.

That being said, I think its only a matter of time before this is a pandemic, but the goal is to spread out the infections, not think that we can eliminate them. I think felixp21 is spot on.

SF Ed

[JimHow]

I predict everything will go smoothly on the trip without a single incident or delay.
I have totally enjoyed Felix here on BWE, love his posts and knowledge, he is a true BWEer, hope to meet him someday, but I'm in the Danny/Alex camp.
I think this whole thing is a serious issue, but enormously overblown by the media, which is certifiably insane.

I've dealt with many adversities. I assure you we will make BWE France '20 happen, if I have to crawl to the fucking Medoc...

This is Jim How we talking about, yo, we ain't gonna let no little fucking flu bug stop us from drinking in the cellars of Lafite on our 20th anniversary... Don;t make no difference what these Debbie Downers say...

As my friend GW Bush used to say...

Na Ga Happen...

[marcs]

I'll say this: I think coronavirus is going to be really bad, but you are much safer being in a European country than the U.S., sad to say.

[JimHow]

If my Air France flight lands at CDG, and my speed train from Paris arrives in Bordeaux, and if Hotel Mercure's doors are not closed shut, and if the bus arives, and if Palmer, Mouton, Lafite, and Pontet, etc., are not closed for business, Bordeaux Wine Enthusiasts will be there....

[Blanquito]

4 small steps for JimHow, 4 giant steps for BWE.

[Blanquito]

We’ll be right there beside you (in hazmat suits), Jimbo!

But seriously, this sure seems like a mountain out of a mole hill. Sure, the infirm should take extra care, but I have zero concerns. My main risk of bodily harm is getting quarantined at Lafite (how cool would that be!!!) while my wife is left home alone taking care of the kids. That might (eventually) be the death of me, a long and slow one to be sure.

[jal]

jal...
the genie is out of the bottle, the reason we quarantine in a pandemic is to slow, not stop, the transmission rate. This gives our medical facilities the chance to cope with the illness, rather than needing hundreds of thousands of ICU beds all at once, the slowing of the infection rate allows hospitals to treat more patients over a longer period of time.

Thank you for your explanation, Felix.

[dragzworthy]

I think many have missed the point of my post...in particular Alex who seems to take things personally like an emotional 5 year old.

I'm not debating which country is safer to be in. I'm not even doubting that death rates won't be similar to the flu, what I am suggesting is that economic activity takes a massive hot as the response function from governments is to stop, not slow activity. That hits wine consumption via various channels.
Less social activity being one, a poorer balance sheet as stocks get hit being another but also via the exchange rate channel.

So back to you Alex, I think I am perhaps better equipped than you sitting in Bordeaux to judge this as I have a pretty good handle on Chinese consumption.

Let's see shall we?

[jal]

We can only control what we can control.

That's true, and it means that we can control the amount of risk that we are comfortable taking. Whether it's in our investment retirement portfolio account, in our traveling to risky spots, or in gathering in large numbers.

We can obviously get hit even after taking all precautions but the trick is to have the balance of risks tilt in our favor.

The only way to be ahead of the game in my opinion, is to understand the risks we are taking and then decide.

That's why I had a problem understanding the level of frantic response by governments, the media and the markets, I was uncomfortable with the response of governments, namely, quarantines and lockdown, I thought it was a matter of perception (the politicians wanted to show they were doing something, anything) until Felix explained it was to slow down the virus so as not to overwhelm the health care infrastructure. I thought the media was also feeding on that panic, 3.5% mortality rate is not great but we've seen much worse with SARS and MERS until I understood that the mortality rate would have been much higher if the level of care was not up to par. Again thanks Felix for explaining.

And btw, while this may have been obvious to everyone, I need my information to be precise and concise, when the message is hidden behind mountains of facts, information and news (fake or not), I can't decipher it. I can't get the real message when it's drowned by huge amounts of noise.

I wish that this clarity would have come from our elected officials and from the media instead of from a wine website, lol, but I'll take what information I can where I can.

Now that I understand, it is up to me to decide what risk to take and how to control as much as I possibly can. To you, Jim, going to Bordeaux is a low risk affair, and I would tend to agree, but everyone has a different level of comfort when risk is concerned.

[AKR]

One small risk reducing measure I have taken is to shift consumption to higher alcohol St Emilions.

My colleagues at work decided that alcohol can be used to kill the COVID19 bugs.

So I figure 15% fruit bombs are better than 9% rieslings.

Also more frequent application of this tonic.

[dhp]

I must side with Alex on his arguments of fake news. The media is causing a mass hysteria and everyone is falling right into the pit. Yes covid-19 is a bug the world has never seen and there is no immunity but it shown to be far less infectious than influenza A. The latter is barely mentioned in the press annually but it killed just over 35k people in 2018-19 in the USA alone. Where was the panic on this or its annual occurrence?? Covid-19 infects all ages but children show few to no symptoms but can pass the disease to others. There is conflicting info regarding its effect on those over 60 but most deaths are sporadically clustered in the 30-50 y/o age group. Yes the bug needs to be taken seriously just like influenza should as well as but the press and general public leave the latter alone. Just like norovirus hitting the press when a cruise ship becomes inflicted it hits all of the press but you never hear about its prevalence at resorts, hospitals, food halls, buffets and just about anywhere people gather. It's not fun having people draining diarrhea and vomiting with many with underlying illnesses succumbing to dehydration and worse...death. Yes the world can be a scary place but it always has been but for the most part the public walks through life without seeing or knowing what is around them until now where you get a bug that is certainly no where a new Ebola with exceedingly high mortality rate but the press has hyped this one beyond reality and everyone needs to calm down. Just like you can't prevent the spread of the flu without a vaccination program this will eventually come under control and the world is not ending as some in the press would like you to believe. Life goes on and I suggest there are worse problems in the world than corona virus and people need to calm down instead of fear mongering. May everyone be safe and exercise caution but don't give up living.

As I lurker I decided to register to respond to this.

but it shown to be far less infectious than influenza A.

This is demonstrably false. Data is limited, but all of it points to covid-19 being both more lethal AND SIGNIFICANTLY more infectious than typical Influenza, with rough estimates of the R0 being ~2-4 (The H1N1 pandemic had an R0 of ~1.5). R0 is the average number of people that one infected person will spread disease to. So, a number less than 1 means the disease will die down, and a number greater than 1 means that it will continue to spread. The numbers suggest that Covid-19 could be significantly more infectious than any influenza strain of the last 100 years. A difference of 3 versus 1.5 is a HUGE difference. Obviously, data is still extremely limited. But there is ZERO indication that Covid-19 is "far less infectious than influenza A."

The hope is that we can reduce that R0 with all the social distancing, awareness of not touching your face, masks, and more frequent hand/surface sanitizing. Hopefully warmer weather will also reduce that number below zero. But if this coronavirus is truly this infectious, than it may still not all be enough to stop the spread of disease, only slow it down.

The latter is barely mentioned in the press annually but it killed just over 35k people in 2018-19 in the USA alone. Where was the panic on this or its annual occurrence??

Is coronavirus far less common than Influenza at the moment? Of course. The key phrase is "at the moment." This is a novel pathogen in the earliest phases of disease spread. The whole point of the worry and hand-wringing is the potential for this virus to rapidly spread and completely dwarf those numbers of 35k dead.

Our medical infrastructure already struggles with seasonal influenza. People freaked out about H1N1 because it could overwhelm hospitals. Now you have a new virus that could be significantly more infectious, for which there is no vaccine? And you superimpose that on top of existing seasonal influenza? This is a BIG deal.

May everyone be safe and exercise caution but don't give up living

This is something I can agree with. For those who are young/youngish and healthy, I wouldn't suggest that you barricade yourself from the outside world. There's a chance this thing could be around for a long time, and if that's the case, are we going to quarantine ourselves forever? That being said, it would be a terrible time to get sick (not from coronavirus, but for any reason) and have to go to the hospital. Staff will be overwhelmed with more patients, hospitals may be short-staffed with infected staff, and there is a high risk of hospital-transmitted coronavirus as well.

[jal]

Hmmmm,

https://www.wine-searcher.com/m/2020/03 ... -showpiece

[JimHow]

Now the world is REALLY coming to an end!

Did you get home alright, Jacques?
Any corona-related troubles in your travels from Europe?

We're going, unless they say we can't.

[greatbxfreak]

Some guys here are completely underestimating the severity of this coronavirus! It's not just something similar to flu, it's much bigger and more severe, and it spreads with blistering speed.

Take a lot of hand-cleaning gel with no less the 70% alcohol. You have to clean your hands at the airport, buses, tramway, hotels, restaurants, shops, tasting places etc.

I'm cancelling all my arrangements starting tomorrow. Will be back in September.

Now Basque country is no go.

[greatbxfreak]

JimHow,

You're not serious....

[jal]

Now the world is REALLY coming to an end!

Did you get home alright, Jacques?
Any corona-related troubles in your travels from Europe?

Only mechanical difficulties and United Airlines crew scheduling issues Jim, nothing else. And no one seemed even remotely worried, people were high fiving strangers at the game all around us.

I washed my hands constantly and hummed Happy Birthday more times in 4 days than in the previous 60 years. I may also have been the cause of a shortage of soap in Liverpool and Manchester .

[stefan]

>>
I washed my hands constantly and hummed Happy Birthday more times in 4 days than in the previous 60 years.
>>

Keep it up, Jacques, as this is what you should be doing even absent covid-19. I have taken all recommended precautions against influenza for 15 years. I have not contracted the flu in all these years and had only one minor cold.

>>
Take a lot of hand-cleaning gel with no less the 70% alcohol. You have to clean your hands at the airport, buses, tramway, hotels, restaurants, shops, tasting places etc.
>>

Soap and water is better, but alcohol based hand-cleaning gel is good. And be very careful not to touch your face before cleansing if you have touched anything that might have been touched by anyone else. This I have also done for 15 years.

But I do not live like a hermit and I travel a lot. I worry more about automobile accidents and entropy than covid-19.

[JimHow]

No, GBF, I'm not serious.
Wow, no EP?

With one exception we are still scheduled to meet all of our 19 properties in Bordeaux.

I'm going, no matter what. If the trains stop, I guess I'll stay in Paris.
I heard from Air France tonight, all systems seem go...

[dstgolf]

Finally a rational commentary from Canada's National Post. Take a Chill Pill Everybody is good advice.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... =emb_title

[JimHow]

We have ZERO cases of coronavirus in Maine.
And yet, sports events cancelled, schools closed, etc.
This is insane. It is the Great Hysteria of 2020.

Unless Macron bans <17 at Bordeaux wine estates during the week of March 22-27, we will be there.

March on, BWE!

[felixp21]

OMG, LMFAO. Yes, there is the voice of sensibility. You only gotta look at the guy's bow tie to know how authoritative he is

[felixp21]

I'm at a wedding in Maine this August, Jim, long may it remain Corona free!!!!!!!!