2019 Bordeaux EP Campaign

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:46 am

When can we expect the first case of coronavirus in Maine, Felix?

felixp21 · Post by **felixp21** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:02 am

statistically, in the next week, Jim, but hopefully, never!!!!

my wife and child have returned to Shenzhen yesterday, and have started their first day of "reverse quarantine"... 13 to go!!!
The virus originated in China (despite what all the social media loonies are saying over there) but it seems they might be the first country to eradicate it from their population. However, the incredibly onerous measures they have taken probably cannot be repeated in the Western World, so the bug will be around for a long time yet. Hope you guys have a real hot and dry summer up there, that is your best chance, and that the bright sparks can get a vaccine out ASAP.

so, it seems, Bordeaux EP is going to be in September... I wonder if that forced change might be permanent? Seems like a better time to me.

down in Aus., we are facing a novel virus with no community immunity, no vaccine, and a cold winter coming up: it's going to be no fun here for the next six months, luckily I am retreating up to safer (Chinese) surroundings in May hehe.

greatbxfreak · Post by **greatbxfreak** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:24 am

Someone with voice of reason?!

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... IrN23X8-m4

felixp21 · Post by **felixp21** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:24 am

nah,GBF, now PLEASE don't let facts get in the way of this story.

it's nothing to worry about, I mean, there have been NO deaths in Singapore (which sits at a constant 32C) so it can't possibly be serious. It's all media hype and nonsense.

no panic in China at all, my wife, son and their entire family are hunkered down in quarantine or in our home in Shenzhen, and say everyone is still scared stiff, but apparently that ain't so!!!! Nup, it's all sweet now.

the views of intelligent people on this Discussion Board concur with the SG's report on the Italian crisis.... the country simply didn't take it seriously, and treated it as "just another flu" until it was far too late.

let's hope that quite bizarre attitude ceases pretty quick smart. For all our sakes.

jal · Post by **jal** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:36 am

Here are two websites that track the disease:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6

https://infographics.channelnewsasia.co ... 022020_cna

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:59 am

How many have died in Italy?

I’m not ignoring the Coronavirus, Felix, it just seems that life for tens of millions in France is pretty normal, people are going to supermarkets, catching flights at CDG, going to work at the office, etc. it sounds like not much has changed since I was there two weeks ago, when I saw zero disruption in the streets of Paris. I know they closed La Louvre one day right after we left, we were there a couple days before, they let us within 2 feet of the Mona Lisa because I was on crutches because I tore up my knee. I was struck by how kind the French people were to a person on crutches. I figure it is safe to go to a few chateaux with 17 other BWEers for a few days. We’ve made contingency plans for other transportation between Paris and Bordeaux. Unless flights are canceled, or unless the estates cancel on us, our itinerary remains intact.

Where will you be in Maine in August? That’s a real nice time of year to be here.

jal · Post by **jal** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:09 am

JimHow wrote:How many have died in Italy?

The link to the websites above gives the answer: 631 dead in Italy

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:26 am

That’s a significant number.
I wonder how that number compares to deaths from normal flu season?
Not that that makes the number any less significant.

jal · Post by **jal** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:33 am

JimHow wrote:That’s a significant number.
I wonder how that number compares to deaths from normal flu season?
Not that that makes the number any less significant.

So 631 out of 10,149 cases is a 6.2% rate.
Flu is usually 0.1%-0.5%

Bear in mind that Italy has one of the oldest populations in Europe with 23% of its population over the age of 65.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:36 am

Those are serious numbers.
I would still not be afraid to visit Italy.
With proper precautions, of course.

dstgolf · Post by **dstgolf** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:17 pm

Jal,

The math doesn't make sense. Italy has 10k cases with 631 deaths and if the RO is so high why aren't the numbers higher and likewise in China. Flu infected 35,000,000 americans in 2018-19 with 35k deaths even with a good immunization program in place. Without effective immunization the numbers across the board would be significantly higher including the RO, and death rate.The numbers for covid are guestimates and are variable from 2-3.5% whereas flu RO is modified because of an effective immunization program in place in most developed countries and we still have a high incidence of infection and death. Call me a skeptic or a realist. I agree this virus is bad news and sad for all those that die. Yes these events have the ability to overwhelm our healthcare facilities and I'm sure they will but this is not the great annihilation or armageddon that some are making this out to be. The majority have minor flu like illness and yes unfortunately some get viral pneumonia,pulmonary fibrosis and without the aid of respirators may or may not die. Yes the disease is bad but come into the hospital with me for a day and see all of the unfortunate souls with newly diagnosed cancers, rare infections from god knows where,blood diseases let alone every organ disease we know and why??? Many die from these diseases but the general public hasn't got a clue about the number of people suffering on a daily basis sick as dogs with bizarre diseases and when you work in the midst of it day in day out you take it in stride doing the best that you can to help them. You don't show fear but give them confidence that things can be better. Lets keep thing in perspective. This covid is one disease and it will be controlled with time until the next outbreak of something else. Until then we do the best that we can to keep on living and avoid falling into the trap of this press created hysteria. We have a problem and we'll deal with it the way we always have and let cooler heads prevail. Enough of this trying to spread fear. Its of no benefit to anyone.

jal · Post by **jal** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:26 pm

I’m not spreading fear Danny,
I’m just quoting the numbers from the website published in the NY Times.
I don’t agree or disagree, I was just answering Jim’s questions.

felixp21 · Post by **felixp21** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:48 pm

community awareness is a great thing in a virus outbreak, if it leads to panic, that is a price that is worth it.

Australian government has announced unbelievably draconian measures this morning, pretty much the same as Italy, in the infant stages of the disease over here. The population does not like it, but are accepting in the hope we can nip this thing in the bud.

felixp21 · Post by **felixp21** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:52 pm

“We are deeply concerned by the alarming levels of spread and severity and by the alarming levels of inaction.”

official statement from the WHO this morning. Four weeks too late, but a word of warning to those nit-wits out there that think this is "just another flu"

dragzworthy · Post by **dragzworthy** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:15 pm

Alex you've gone quiet.

Don't want to remind Felix and why we have no idea because we don't have a townhouse in St Emillion...?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:20 pm

Only one of the 19 chateaux we are visiting have canceled on us.
I’m surprised it’s not 19 out of 19 based on all of these reports.
Those where we are dining have taken our menu orders and ordered our food.
Maybe that will be the case by next week but we are still go as of today.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:24 pm

No sooner do I say that and now I read “US considering travel restrictions for Europe.”

That would obviously end our trip.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:52 pm

I don’t know who you are dragzworthy, but I don’t think there are any bragging rights here.
If it ends up that the virus does not end up killing lots of people, some will say, see, the issue was overblown. Others will say, see, thank goodness we took all these precautions.

felixp21 · Post by **felixp21** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:58 pm

wise words, Jim, and entirely correct.
let's all hope that people think it was all media hype and the bug kills few and disappears quickly. IMO, that will mean the governments have done the job adequately, and saved an untold number of lives.
there can be absolutely no doubt that complacency is the biggest enemy in this issue.

felixp21 · Post by **felixp21** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:38 pm

Jim,
my son is getting married in some lobster shack in Maine, can't remember the exact location. He is a lawyer, but has now turned to the dark side and has just started a job with Skurnik wines. I guess I had too much influence on his developing years lol

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:39 pm

Felix,

I waited to answer because I thought, here is this guy the other side of the world who thinks he's better informed then me.
Maybe his is.
Turns out he wasn't.
On the contrary.

It was pretty irresponsible of you to say that stage 3, i.e. epidemic status would be proclaimed "within 48 hours in France". Where in (expletive deleted)'s name did you fish that out of?
Not a good thing to spread fake news, Felix.
And you, a man of science!

You were also mistaken on another account. The en primeur tastings will indeed be held on schedule, and not in September as you said.
https://france3-regions.blog.francetvin ... wr4ncl331M

Will you please think and check facts before posting from now on?
That would be very helpful and it would help me to respect you.

Thanks in advance,
Alex R.

felixp21 · Post by **felixp21** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:54 pm

Alex,
One of the main Bordeaux importers in HK, one of the largest markets for Bordeaux, has been told the EP tastings have been postponed. I know this because I was talking to one of their executives last night, who happens to be a good friend of mine. So, we shall see, okay? Happy to take any bet you wish to make.
Secondly, perhaps you should take a look at your local newspapers, unless what CNN is saying is "fake news" lol.

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:18 pm

Felix,

Why didn’t you open the link I sent? I contradicts your assertions and dates from today! It’s a statement by the president of the Union des Grands Crus for chrissakes. You want to bet? I’m game. And I still think it’s awful to post bad news that is not true. It gets people worried and upset for no good reason..
An then, of course, there’s not backing down when proved wrong…

At the beginning of this thread, I said that I would be glad to acknowledge any statements I made that were wrong. I wish you would be man enough to do the same.

The situation with this virus is *not* good. But it calls for keeping a cool head.

It might even be possible, Felix, to talk about wine on the board instead of fighting

.

Alex R.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:07 am

Trump just banned travel to Europe.

felixp21 · Post by **felixp21** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:12 am

UGC just announced lol lol lol lol lol lol lol

Like you Alex, they have their head firmly in the sand, typical Bordeaux Arrogance OMG, quite unbelievable really.

YOU GUYS CLEARLY DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHAT IS HAPPENING!!!!!!!

looking forward to what the UGC says when the postpone the event, as they have already told all their Asian importers lol. Should be a nice little package of lies.

BTW, you won't have any USA or Oceania importers there either, travel just been banned.

felixp21 · Post by **felixp21** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:15 am

... or maybe it's just more "fake news" I'm spreading lol

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:18 am

Jim, do you have a link to Trump's announcement? Google gives me nothing.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:19 am

Just watched it live on TV Stefan.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:22 am

Trump just announced on TV - no travel allowed from Europe to US for 30 days, beginning Friday. UK excepted. You can go, but you can’t come back.

felixp21 · Post by **felixp21** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:29 am

actually, CNN is reporting that it is travel "to AND from" Europe... ie, both ways.

Sorry for you guys, but this writing was on the wall more than a week ago.
From what I've been told, you can plan your trip to coincide with EP the second week of September. Good luck with it all.

Claudius2 · Post by **Claudius2** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:03 am

Folks
I have copied the following from Bloomberg:

"Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf clarified that the administration was suspending the entry of most foreign nationals who have been in any of 26 European nations in the previous two weeks. The restriction does not apply to legal permanent residents and immediate family members of U.S. citizens..."

In short, it is not at all a blanket ban. Those with residency in the US and their families are not covered.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:06 am

Clarification from DHS - suspends entry of foreign nationals who have been in Schengen countries within 14 days. Permanent US residents are allowed back in.

Frankly I’m not sure how much difference it will make. The virus is already here in quantity and we are entering the log growth phase of spread in the US. What we do or don’t do here will have more impact.

felixp21 · Post by **felixp21** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:15 am

yes, I think you are right, David. This should have happened in the US (and Australia) over a week ago.
We should never have let Tom Hanks in!!!!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:19 am

There's confusion about the travel ban.

felixp21 · Post by **felixp21** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:21 am

allowing US citizens back in is, of course, mandatory, but the experience in China showed clearly that "self quarantine" is completely ineffective.
in China, EVERY international arrival, whether Chinese citizen or not, go into compulsory state-run quarantine stations (actually, they are decent hotels, rooms with en-suites if the pics from my wife are anything to go by) for a period of 14 days, with the RED Covid-19 marker on their app. After release, they are on yellow for five days, and green after that time period. Green allows them to travel ONLY to designated supermarkets and pharmacies, and to work provided work is within 4kms of their home address. The app on their mobile, goes into a central computer and sets off an alarm if they travel outside their red, yellow or green zone.
now, that seems to me to be a pretty bad abuse of human rights, but it also seems to be eliminating the virus from their society.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:33 am

So this is what CNN says:

Trump misrepresents Europe travel ban during primetime address, causing confusion

From CNN's Jeremy Diamond

In a primetime address to millions of Americans, President Trump misrepresented the travel restrictions he is imposing on travel between the United States and Europe.

Trump said "we will be suspending all travel from Europe to the United States for the next 30 days" before adding that there will be "exemptions for Americans who have undergone appropriate screenings."

Those exemptions are far more extensive than the President made them out to be. They apply to all US legal permanent residents, citizens and some of their family members, according to a statement from the Department of Homeland Security.

The travel restrictions Trump is enacting are in fact far more similar to those enacted on China.

The ban also does not apply to all of Europe but to nations in the Schengen zone. That includes Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, The Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland.

What this means: Americans and US permanent residents who are in Europe will still be allowed to fly to Europe and be allowed back into the United States during this 30-day period.

They will simply be screened upon entry to the United States and face quarantine or restrictions on their movement in the US for 14 days.

However, it is not clear whether airlines will still fly the routes if passenger demand from European nationals dries up because of the ban.

Trump also appeared to correct himself on a ban on cargo. In his speech he said, "There will be exemptions for Americans who have undergone appropriate screenings and these prohibitions will not only apply to the tremendous amount of trade and cargo, but various other things as we get approval. "

A few minutes ago, the President tweeted, "...please remember, very important for all countries & businesses to know that trade will in no way be affected by the 30-day restriction on travel from Europe. The restriction stops people not goods."

This is not to say the President is not taking an extremely severe step, but it is not the all-encompassing suspension on travel between the United States and Europe that the President portrayed.

Tom In DC · Post by **Tom In DC** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:55 am

Typical Trump miscommunication. Amazing and yet not surprising.

The color of one's passport will not protect them from disease. Why on earth can US citizens fly but not others?

felixp21 · Post by **felixp21** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:57 am

yea, it's pretty hard to make out what the hell it all means, but bottom line is if you are in Europe atm, you gotta quarantine on your return, and if you are in the States atm, you ain't going to Europe.

radio down here is reporting ScoMo, our (almost) equally idiotic Prime Minister, is about to announce bans from Europe AND USA

felixp21 · Post by **felixp21** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:59 am

Tom In DC wrote:Typical Trump miscommunication. Amazing and yet not surprising.

The color of one's passport will not protect them from disease. Why on earth can US citizens fly but not others?

.......they gotta be allowed home!!! That isn't surprising, nor is the confusing/idiotic way Trump tried to explain it.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:35 am

Tom In DC wrote:Typical Trump miscommunication. Amazing and yet not surprising.

The color of one's passport will not protect them from disease. Why on earth can US citizens fly but not others?

Trump xenophobia? Gotta keep that "foreign virus" out. Probably written by Stephen Miller.