2019 Bordeaux EP Campaign

[felixp21]

An already flagging EP system might indeed come to an abrupt halt in 2020. Have we seen the last of the traditional Bordeaux en primeur sales?

In China, Covid-19 has had a devastating effect on business, certainly much more than reported in the West..... with a resultant complete collapse in the Chinese (and therefore HK) wine market. Huge losses by just about every business in the World's largest economy has seen an annihilation of imported wine sales, most particularly Bordeaux, and to a lesser extent Burgundy. The World's largest importer of Bordeaux, by both value and volume, has literally disappeared overnight, and with it, little brother HK, the seventh largest by volume and second largest by value.
In the USA, the World's 3rd largest importer of Bordeaux, Donald Trump, he of limited mental faculties and unlimited boorish behaviour, continues to threaten the French with a quadrupling of his new wine tax, which has already been greeted with plummeting sales in the US. A four-fold (nonsensical) increase will surely kill off this enormous market that the Bordelaise so heavily rely on.

So, what is going to happen this year? Will the EP system continue? Will the Bordelaise recognise the extraordinary difficult problem they are now confronted with and simply shut up shop for the year?
It really is going to be fascinating to find out what actually happens!!!

[AlexR]

Felix,

People have been predicting the collapse of the en primeur market for an awfully long time and they have been shown wrong time and time again.

It *did* happen once in the 1970s, but we're a long way from such a context today.

While the Bordelais are no strangers to charging what the market will bear, the other side of the coin is that they bring down their prices - when they have to.

Some countries buy less Bordeaux, others take up the slack, and things finally find some sort of workable level.

In short, the oft-predicted bursting of the bubble *could* happen, but it seems highly unlikelyi to me at this tme.

All the best,
Alex R.

[Chateau Vin]

I second Alex. The prediction of imminent collapse of EP market is a myth. Primarily, the growth properties reap the benefits of EP campaign. As the production is limited, there are more than enough people to lay their hands on Bordeaux. And the people who can lay their hands on is also increasing.

Covid or not, it won't affect any wine business. If not today, people can wait and buy it tomorrow when the economy recovers. Chinese downturn in its economy is not as bad as it was that of US's in 2008. The great recession of US didn't do a squat in denting the EP business. So nothing is gonna happen in EP market in the near future....

[felixp21]

hope you guys are right, but, sadly, I doubt it.

[jckba]

Château Latour abandoned the en primeur system.

[AlexR]

I have trouble seeing where you're coming from, Felix.

Do you remember the Financial crisis of 2008?
The world financial situation was far worse than it is now.
And that didn't stop en-primeur sales!

Trump imposes quotas?
Yes, that'll make a dent, but the market is truly international.

Good older vintages are available lower than en primeur prices?
Yes, and as paradoxical as it may seem, that does not negate en primeur sales (for several reasons).

No, the market for the great wines of Bordeaux is healthy.
It's the modestly-priced wines that are suffering.

Best regards,
Alex R.

[felixp21]

Hi Alex,
I am coming from the point of view that the number one, number three and number seven countries that import Bordeaux are in stricken times, particularly in HK and China. I can tell you first hand, there are a huge number of mainland and HK outlets that literally not sold a bottle of wine for the past month. Indeed, an executive of one of Bordeaux's largest importers told me that their interest in this year's EP campaign is absolutely zero. nada. nix.
It may be that the merchants carry the can for the Chateau (again), but I'm not so sure. In the past they did so to secure future allocations, but such may be the absence of demand that this time around, the merchants might just say enough is enough. I guess low interest rates are in their favour, but the risk this time around is huge.
If you honestly think the GFC compares in any way to the current problem, you clearly do not know or understand what is happening in China ATM. The World's largest economy (according to the CIA, amongst several interested parties) has come to a total stand-still, even Xi's brave face over the past month has changed to the grim realisation that this event is not a glitch in the system, it is an utter economical disaster.
I must admit, I am really surprised how poorly understood this is in the West. Trust me, everything is just shut down, with no end in sight. Reports that people have returned to work are total garbage, the streets in the big five (PK, SH, GZ, SZ, HZ) remain deserted. You cannot even use the subway unless the App on yr phone allows you to travel on that particular line, so getting to work, even if they wanted to, is virtually impossible!!! Businesses like mine, of which there are tens of millions in China, are paying their employees (in my case 86) to sit at home and watch TV until further notice. Looking forward to seeing who in China, HK, Japan, and anywhere else in Asia are going to buy their 20 cases of Bordeaux!!! You reckon the huge importers in China and HK don't know this???
Then you have the threat of 100% tariff in Trump-land, Brexit in the UK, etc etc
As I said, a very interesting next 6-8 weeks coming up in the World of Wine!!!!

[AKR]

I'm actually with Felixp21 on this. I've been looking at some econ numbers out of the region, and the metrics that are hard for the regime to fake (like subway traffic etc.) are down crazy numbers like 80+%. Electricity usage cut in half. And so on.

But, brutally, I don't really care about whether the 'EP Campaign' fares well or not. The iron law is that wine will eventually get valued for what someone is willing to pay to drink it. Of course, it may take time for that equilibrium to be attained. But I don't think inflation will bail out the middlemen, nor their bankers, this time. And anyways I doubt anyone here will be hurt by spending less on current acquisitions, and pare down cellar sizes from natural consumption.

=======

WSJ had a heart rending story about rural migrant factory workers in China; these are not the people mixing their Petrus with Diet Coke at Raffles. This outbreak has been hard on them: evictions, travel bans, layoffs, limited medical support etc. These are the people I feel much worse for, not the taipans concerned about their Le Pin case allocations...

[Claudius2]

Folks
Even In Singapore, there is little or no interest in the 2019 en primeur, and the local retailers and wholesalers are in fact still offering some pre-arrival deals on 2016. They are not official en primeur, but bought on order from the negociants in Bordeaux.
The importers I normally buy from are also offering 2017 and 2018 en primeur.
And the word is that they have sold very few 2017, and sales of 2018 are also soft. That is despite the fact that both are very good vintages (2017 seems more variable however).

Having said that, stories about the end of the en primeur market emerge a few times a decade, and I must be getting old as I have seen it now many times.
I first bought en primeur in Australia in the early 80's (1982 vintage) though in those days, I only bought small amounts.

It is worth noting that even in the first half of last year, before COVID-19 and HK protests, exports of Bordeaux were under pressure and Chinese purchases were down more than one third from the previous year AND re-exports from HK to China - a major part of HK sales, were down nearly two thirds. I envisage that the first half of this year will be much worse. Similarly, the local (Sg) importers are complaining and are daily offering good deals on anything and everything.

[DavidG]

I agree with Felix that en primeur will be crushed this year.
Too soon to tell, but I wouldn’t bet against it recovering the next year.
A lot depends on just how widespread, severe, and prolonged the Covid-19 outbreak is.
Hard to know as early data is always incomplete and data from China is difficult to trust.

I also agree with Arv. The wine trade may suffer but I worry more about those infected and the more economically vulnerable who are less able to weather the impact.

Here’s hoping it turns out more like SARS or MERS than the direst predictions.

[AlexR]

Hi Felix,

If you only knew how many times I have heard such dire predictions…
Yes, there are indeed factors that make things more difficult this year. But I cannot see the en primeur system falling down like a house of cards as you seem to imagine. It’s really quite robust and resilient .

The en primeur tastings start one month from now. If there are still travel restrictions from China, or perhaps from other countries, due to the corona virus, this could have a negative effect. Yes.
However, saying that there is “zero, nada, nix” interest in the 2019 vintage simply is not true. People come from all over the world to taste the new vintage and they’ll be there again this year. There is nothing like it any other wine producing region.

I’ll admit that here is a logic to all this that escapes cursory examination – such as the fact that it is often possible to buy the same wines from a vintage as good, if not better, with some bottle age at a lower price. But this is nothing new. It has to do with long, complicated distribution chains and the allocation system.

If the release prices for the 2019s are too high, they will be lowered. Where’s the drama?

You are quite right to remind us that the world’s second largest economy is in a bad way (this information is indeed soft pedalled in the media I read). And then there’s Trump, Brexit, etc. But Bordeaux is shipped to 200 countries around the world. So, I wouldn’t hold my breath until the market implodes and great growths are dumped left, right, and center. Ain’t going to happen, in my humble opinion.
That having been said, I do not have a crystal ball. We should know by June how things are going. Of course, this is made complicated by the fact that statistics for the great growths are unavailable, as well as the fact that these wines are released in several tranches.

We all know that psychology and irrational factors can have a huge effect on financial markets and markets of all kinds. And it is true that the media are having a field day with the corona virus and there is a lot of overreacting in countries that have not even been touched by it.

Best regards,
Alex R.

[felixp21]

No Alex, I am not predicting the collapse of Bordeaux sales, I'm simply stating the EP system in 2020, as it currently stands, is under dire threat. Far, far greater threat than anything that has pre-ceded it in modern history. Yes, indeed, the EP campaign is due to start in one month. So, pray tell, how will the Chinese "tasters" get there? In four weeks time, almost certainly, I will also ask, how will the HK tasters, the Japanese tasters, the Korean tasters, the Italian tasters and quite possibly many other tasters get there? I'm not sure many will be too keen to travel to France and sit in quarantine for two weeks, that is if Macron lets them in in the first place
Without meaning any offence whatsoever, if you are representative of the level of understanding of CO-VID 19 in Bordeaux, the region is in for an incredibly rude shock in four weeks time!!!
BTW, since my OP, the Dow has lost 1800 points, with all financial experts predicting far worse losses to come.... this catastrophe will make the GFC look like a walk in the park.

Anyway, as I said, interesting times. Maybe the Bordelaise can hold virtual tasting for the 2019 EP campaign?

[felixp21]

oh, and Alex, I believe you misquoted me. I did not say this particular importer has zero interest in the 2019 vintage, I said they have zero interest in the 2019 EP campaign. I think you would appreciate there is a vast difference in those two statements.

[Chateau Vin]

No Alex, I am not predicting the collapse of Bordeaux sales, I'm simply stating the EP system in 2020, as it currently stands, is under dire threat. Far, far greater threat than anything that has pre-ceded it in modern history. Yes, indeed, the EP campaign is due to start in one month. So, pray tell, how will the Chinese "tasters" get there? In four weeks time, almost certainly, I will also ask, how will the HK tasters, the Japanese tasters, the Korean tasters, the Italian tasters and quite possibly many other tasters get there? I'm not sure many will be too keen to travel to France and sit in quarantine for two weeks, that is if Macron lets them in in the first place
Without meaning any offence whatsoever, if you are representative of the level of understanding of CO-VID 19 in Bordeaux, the region is in for an incredibly rude shock in four weeks time!!!
BTW, since my OP, the Dow has lost 1800 points, with all financial experts predicting far worse losses to come.... this catastrophe will make the GFC look like a walk in the park.

Anyway, as I said, interesting times. Maybe the Bordelaise can hold virtual tasting for the 2019 EP campaign?

Ok. That’s a bit of misunderstanding I had. If you are talking of just 2020 EP, sure it will slow down a bit. But I am not sure it will come to a complete halt. But significantly slow down to consider it as a halt? Has a small chance IMO.

I originally took it as EP system is done for good when I read ‘have we seen the last of EP sales?’ in your original post...

Also to note is that EP prices and offerings won’t happen until this summer, which is 6 months away. If what you are describing in china wrt Covid is true, I would be interested to know if such situation will be persistent for the next 6 months. I doubt it would (of course repercussions linger)...

As far as DOW losing 1800? The US stock market needs a reason to pull down. It’s somewhat like emperor having no clothes with corporate tax cuts and stock buybacks...Sure the economy has been growing, but tax breaks, stock buybacks coupled with rest of the world’s economy slumbering (and low interest rates, not to mention, have people putting the money in US stock market) has the US stock market going beyond historical index multiples...

[felixp21]

That's true, CV. Buoyant market that needed an excuse to re-adjust, but it still translates into lost dollars, and the likelihood is it will translate into a pretty serious GFC.
Could use it as a metaphor for the EP campaign too!! I mean, it is a pretty cruddy system that might need adjusting too, and this (about to be) pandemic might be the excuse they need to re-shape the whole method of selling Bordeaux.
To be honest, I would not be surprised if they just didn't post-pone the thing 4-6 months, if that is logistically feasible...... as I said, and this is now pretty much for sure, if things go on as they are, the EP campaign will not have any representatives from it's major player, and it's second major play (on a value basis). Plus, they would have to take the gamble pretty much right now that in 4-5 weeks time, there will be no further travel restrictions into France, which seems highly unlikely to me.
Alex R makes a very good point that the EP campaigns of the past have faced many a significant problem and won thru handsomely, but the timing of this outbreak is pretty much the perfect storm to hit Bordeaux..... there is no way in four weeks this will have been contained, and as stated on the news this morning, a global pandemic is likely to be announced in the next 72 hours.
Not a lot of point having those large gatherings (which France, with most countries,have cautioned against), when no-body is doing any tasting!!!!!!

[AlexR]

Hi again Felix.

OK for the nuance between interest in wines from the vintage and that for the en primeur campaign, although it’s not like the two are unrelated…

We are all exposed to deformed information and fake news. With regard to this particular subject, people often hear one thing and extrapolate incorrectly or, more likely, think that the reality they see in their country is universal, when this is not the case for a product like fine Bordeaux.

Have you ever been to the en primeur tastings? In my opinion, only a small minority who attend see this as a buying trip. It is most often a time to reconnect, renew or initiate business contacts and, above all, listen to what others have to say about the quality of the vintage. It will be interesting to see if the absence of importers from China or elsewhere has a significant influence on buying patterns or if, as I tend to believe, they buy primarily on the recommendation of critics and established reputations…

I fail to see how the threat to en primeur sales is any more “dire” this year than in others taking took place in times just as troubled, if not more so. You imply that global economics accounts more for this hypothesis than the actual market for Bordeaux.
You speak of a possible postponing of the tastings, but the outbreak of infections in France would have to be pretty damned serious for that to happen. And even if it did, I don’t believe that it would call into question the way the great wines are sold.

The “reshaping of the whole method for selling Bordeaux” you speak of is not on the cards in my most humble opinion. The subject has been broached as long as I’ve been alive, and that’s quite a long time .
You cannot quarrel with success.

You may be right after all about your prediction Felix, in which case I will be glad to admit my mistake. All I’m really trying to say in these posts is that the economics are really quite complicated and projections hazardous. I am reminded of Mark Twain’s famous comment upon seeing his obituary in the newspaper “Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated”.

Best regards,
Alex R.

[Musigny 151]

A couple of notes.

People have mentioned the 2008 vintage; there were two very distinctive phases. The first before the Chinese showed up, was doom and gloom. In fact I was in Bordeaux in 2009, and there were certainly a few merchants who wondered if they would be in business by year’s end. A few of the chateaux were helping out, buying back or charging minimal or no interest. Then of course we saw the Chinese come in, and the market became hot, then red hot.

If you look at the market as it was a year ago, it is interesting to compare the February 2009 to the one in 2019. Asia was a huge buyer both at auction and through the merchant network. From barely a bottle in 2009 to a significant percentage of the top wines in Bordeaux in ten years. So if they go away, the market will go back to 2009 levels.

My own experience mirrors this. I sold a significant amount of wine at auction, and the results were disappointing. I can attribute almost all of that to the slowdown of the Chinese market. From taking around 40% in April, when it came to mine, the figure was around 5%. And that was September 2019. It has only gotten worse.

[Musigny 151]

Also please note, we are talking about the top 100 wines. The rest of the Bordeaux market has been struggling for years; apparently they have reached a crisis level.

[jckba]

To buy or not to buy, as consumers we have the choice but I kind of feel for the poor negociants that are forced to eat another vintage regardless of recessionary pressures or worldwide events all in order to maintain their allocations. If anything is going to be cause, I think that the relationship between the Chateau and the negociants will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

[AKR]

Imagine how the Chrysler dealer feels when more sh1tty sedans are foisted on to them every quarter end....

[felixp21]

that is an excellent point, JCKBA, I agree that the straw of 2019 Bordeaux and the timing of the EP campaign may break the camel's back. We'll see

Alex, I hope your experienced optimism wins out over my gloom, as a Bordeaux enthusiast, I certainly want to see the World's greatest wine region prosper. It may be that the Chateaux get (yet another) wake-up call wrt pricing and demand. Again, we will see.

Sadly, some of the real treasures of the region, the lesser know estates that often provide the World's greatest QPR, might feel the brunt of this.

[dragzworthy]

I think it's inevitable that demand will take a hit, chiefly due to the following:

Coronavirus is definitely reducing social gathering, that means less wine consumption, notably China
Savings pools are being hit hard if this continues, we haven't seen that since 2008 (watch this space)
Introduces cross border taxation which impacts the cost - notably with regards to UK and US consumer bases
There's clearly a backlog of stock that still requires to be moved on...the plethora of emails I get are a testament to this.

The offset to this is a reduction in cost (chiefly for the middle point on tax).

I agree comments around negociant Vs chateau relationship being the breaking point but the consumer could force the former's hand.

Any word on yield/supply amount?

[ericindc]

Well, I guess the missing question would be is whether the vintage is crap or good? as for me, I'm done buying long term agers as I like my Bordeaux with 25+ years of age so will only buy a case of daily drinkers.

[felixp21]

Dow's largest single drop in it's history
Financial experts predict this will be worse than the GFC 2008
Prowein, largest wine fair in the World, likely to be cancelled or postponed.
VinExpo, not scheduled for another 12 weeks, likely to be cancelled or postponed. (admittedly, in HK, so no great surprise)
French Chief Medical Officer warns of impending significant outbreak in France.
Host of British merchants, including J and B, announce they will not be attending ANY wine fairs for at least the next four months.
The billion dollar Olympics in grave threat, rumours of it's cancellation circulating in the media.

Maybe I am being pessimistic, but i cannot see how an EP campaign will be held in six-seven weeks time!!!

[dragzworthy]

I trade fixed income (bonds) full time, I may be overly negative biased but yes....I struggle to see how effects don't ripple

[Tom In DC]

Financial experts predict this will be worse than the GFC 2008

Isn't it the "financial experts" job to drum up hysteria so people trade?

And the largest single drop in history is a number. How does the percentage compare to Black Monday in 1987?

[AlexR]

Felix,

You seem to specialize in schadenfreude.

It is comments such as yours that entail the risk of a self-fulfilling prophecy!
I think that cooler heads will prevail and that the doom and gloom you predict will not occur. Will Bordeaux need to take unusual measures? Quite probably, but there is no need to throw oil on the fire.

The media have also stirred things up and many have lost their sense of objectivity. I hope that the 20 people coming on the BWE tour in less than a month will not be deterred by the alarmist pronouncements one reads in this era of fake news.

Best regards,
Alex R.

[felixp21]

yes, lots of fake news and schadenfreude.

well, good luck to you, Alex, if you are representative of the attitude of the Bordelaise, heaven help them.

[AlexR]

Well, Felix, I hope that your fears and conjectures are not representative of the shape of things to come.

As with financial markets, there's so much psychology here. Bad vibes beget more bad vibes...

Frankly, I see no point in painting quite the dismal picture you do since the shit has not yet hit the fan!
I will be glad to discuss at a later date when we can deal with fact rather than fiction.

Once again, if there is a genuine crisis, I will acknolweldge that I mistakenly softpedaled the threats I feel you are presently overplaying.

Alex R.

[Chateau Vin]

Market correction is - 10% down
Market recession is - 20% down
2008 Great Recession - 50% down

Worse than 2008 GR as people are predicting - ??

Currently we have market down by 10%....

[Claudius2]

Chateau Vin
Sales of Bordeaux in China and in Asia per se are down way over 10%.
The most recent data I have is that China is down 30-35%, even before the effect of the virus is factored in.
The Chinese market is down for several reasons - not just COVID-19, and it will take some time to recover.
I have previously outlined at least 10 reasons for this.
Even in more mature markets such as Singapore and HK, various factors have led to a major slump in sales and a lack of interest in en primeur sales.
I am also being overwhelmed with all sorts of deals from just about every retailer in the land.
Never seen it like this before.

However, the status of Bordeaux over here in the East is still strong and I don't see that changing any time soon.
If there has been a star it is Burgundy as the deals I keep receiving show increasing prices for both red and whites. Champagne sales are also strong here in Singapore.
It is worth noting that just about everywhere in Asia is an immature market and that will be the case for some time.
And the COVID-19 panic is now starting to abate over here, despite it now leading to some panic in Europe and Nth America.

[Musigny 151]

Sadly I am more in Felix’s camp. All the problem’s of 2008 indicate that without the Chinese market, Bordeaux finds it hard to sell out in either a recession, or when it has a run of good vintages, which saturate the cellars of would be buyers. This is both.

Sales in Hong Kong and China, anecdotally it seems that there is little high end traffic, and the auction houses are holding their breath waiting for the next ones.


As for great vintages, and saturation, 2015, 2016 and to a slightly lesser extent 2018 came one after the other quickly. (Personally I think 2014 is actually at least on a par with 2015). Also there are still unsold stocks of 2010 left. It adds up to a pretty dismal picture I am afraid.

[JimHow]

(Personally I think 2014 is actually at least on a par with 2015).

Amen my brother.

[Comte Flaneur]

(Personally I think 2014 is actually at least on a par with 2015).

Amen my brother.

Anecdotally in my personal experience, which I admit is not considerable, comparing the two vintages that is not true on two levels:

1. 2014 and 2015 are very different vintages. 2014 was rescued by an Indian Summer like 1978 whereas 2015 was warm and sunny.

2. At my most recent Montrose vertical (three in eight years) the 2016 was imperious, even relative to the 2010. The 2015 however was closer to the 2016 than the 2014. The gap between the 2016 and 2014 was considerable. That surprised me because 2015 was deemed less successful in the northern than southern Medoc.

There is no doubt that 2014 is a good cool vintage worth owning, but 2015 is the much superior vintage overall. It is like comparing 2008 with 2009. Lots of love for the 2008 but no-one is seriously suggesting it is a match for 2009.

[JimHow]

They are different styled vintages indeed.
I like the classic 2014 vintage better than the more alcoholic, hot 2015s.
I like 2015 Mrgauxs but they are big. I may like the 2014 Brane Cantwnac better than the 2015.
I'm very glad i have 239 bottles from the 2014 vintage to drink in my 70s.

[felixp21]

Not sure where the Bordelaise are getting their optimism from, if the rumours that the EP campaign will continue as planned are true.

In a reasonably socialist country, an act of social irresponsibility congregating 5,000+ people from all over the one place into tasting halls full of spit buckets and hand-shakes seems, well, quite bizarre to me. I would now be near certain that if the local authorities don't put a halt to this, the national authorities will. If I was a guessing man, I'd say it will be postponed until September, but time will tell. I would expect some sort of announcement in the next 3-5 days.

To be honest, anyone attending such an event can't really have thought this one thru... France is rife with the bug, as are most countries now. I'd be unhappy being hospitalised in Australia, with it's superb health-care system, but I'd be panic-stricken if I ended up in the hands of the French medicos!!!! (been there, done that after a serious skiing accident in 2014, never ever again lol)

[AlexR]

Felix,

I’m sorry to disappoint you as regards the situation in Bordeaux (I don’t know what country you are in, but I’m here on the spot), but there is no train wreck in sight, and your analysis is erroneous.
Whatever makes you think that there would be any departing from the regulation that no more than 5,000 people can congregate in the same place? If you had ever attended the en primeur tastings, you would know that it doesn’t work like that. It is not a football match.
Your statement about “social irresponsibility” as sadly misinformed.

If you follow the forum, you will have seen that a group of 20 BWEers from the US will be travelling to Bordeaux in 2 weeks. Do you want to call them “irresponsible” too? No, they just haven’t jumped on the media bandwagon and have weighed up the (minor) risks, intelligently. There are all sorts of events taking place throughout France i.e. that have not been cancelled. Why are you picking on Bordeaux? Schadenfreude, I’d say.

It would help to appraise the Corona virus effect dispassionately and with a modicum of objectivity.
There are pockets of contamination around the world, and we have all heard that about a quarter of the Italian population being in effect quarantined. But Bordeaux has hardly been touched.

I think it is fatuous to proclaim that “anyone attending such an event can't really have thought this one thru...”. You have been sucked in by media overkill and, apparently, a certain number of prejudices.

It is outrageous to say you would be “panic-stricken if I ended up in the hands of the French medicos!!!! “
France has the best health care system in the world according to the World Health Organization, notwithstanding your one brush with it. If you are in the US, I would much, much, much prefer to have a health problem here than there!!!!!

Alright already, Felix. We have understood. You want things to go badly here. But give us a chance and, perhaps I should say, a fair trial, before badmouthing us.
Above all, please wait until the shit possibly hits the fan rather than delighting in the prospect.

Best regards,
Alex R.

[dragzworthy]

Hi Alex
I think you have misinterpreted Felix’s post...I struggle to understand why you think he would revel in the downfall of a wine region and country we all love, he has simply stated that he sees a downturn coming (I agree with him). It is you who vehemently object and sound objective. There is no doubt that wine prices will be slammed and I do think it’s irresponsible to have that many people congregating In one area under those circumstances. This is no scahdenfreud but rather concern.

Please remove yourself from the high horse.

[AlexR]

Hi,

What I find galling is someone telling me about reality outside my front door, wrong about it, and unwilling to admit it.

Perhaps I was wrong in thinking that Felix actually wants things to go badly, and if that was not his intention, than I apologize.

But, dammit, how would he like French people saying you should stay away from the United States, or wherever Felix lives, because of the virus threat.
This is about hysterical and simply unfounded reactions. In short: fake news.
I'm the whistleblower on the fake news. Don't kill the Messenger.
Please.

Best regards,
Alex R.

[AKR]

For those who have not read it, its a time to revisit Edgar Allen Poe's disturbing short story: The Masque of the Red Death.

Whether or not Prince Prospero formally cancel's barrel tastings or not, I can't envision that the clients will actually be showing up in en masse.