Wine in the age of the corona.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:19 pm

Felix,
I am glad that you are ringing warning bells all along about this virus, but this name calling of others is sapping the energy of our listening ears. We can all agree to disagree on certain things, and I think you can do better without ad hominem attacks. And I am looking forward to hearing from you any new developments happening over there....

Jim,
I don't think what Danny said about US's slow response is wrong. Maybe you felt it because Canada is not doing anything much better, therefore, he shouldn't have said it. But I disagree. US/Trump administration had 2.5 months head start and the man at the top had been saying that the bug will disappear like a miracle and wash off the US shores. The NSC had been advising the president about dire consequences since January, but the man was hell bent about politics of it rather than prepare a plan for it. His own health officials are saying something, and he is saying something else, fit for politics. If you can't do better, don't atleast make things worse!! I think it should be crime to mislead public like that, knowing all well that millions follow his tweets and press conferences. Forget about having something in place to treat the ill, but not having test kits prepared? That's unforgivable. At minimum, he could have something in place to have test kits readily available so that we could atleast know where the sick are, and how it is spreading. It's not just lax on the admin's part, but it is reckless and callous. This is the height of incompetence not to have even the test kits!

SO is a physician, and they don't have gloves, masks and what not. Their office doesn't know where to send suspected patients for testing! What are they supposed to do? She was telling that yesterday a family flew from NY, and the man is from the military. Because of his symptoms, the man was put under quarantine by the military. When the rest of the family started to have flu like symptoms, they called SO's office. Their office could not ask them to come because all the hell would break lose if they are positive as the office didn't have any protection. They could not advise them where to go tested, because nothing is in place. Go figure!

I see some people might say that every one should rally around the administration in tough times. So what? As far as I am concerned, I can call a spade a spade, and also do my part to alleviate these difficult times.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:46 pm

The concept of groupthink came from the Bay of Pigs fiasco, when the seeming Harvard educated geniuses all came up with what they thought was the brilliant idea of invading Cuba. When it failed catastrophically everyone wondered how so many smart people could come up with such a stupid idea. And it was because nobody asked questions, dared to challenge the “experts,” etc. Thus, I don’t begrudge the Wall Street Journal questioning the actions being taken. We have 52 cases here in Maine, population 1.3 million. No deaths. The economy has been shut down, with thousands losing their jobs, businesses closing, great hardships being imposed on many. And yet we see China over the hump with 3,500 dead out of 1.4 billion. If we believe a lot of the experts, we will see like 11 million dead out of 329 million here in the US. Unlike David, I say it is ok to go outside of groupthink and at least question those premises. And that doesn’t mean you are a Neanderthal if you do so.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:02 pm

JimHow wrote:The concept of groupthink came from the Bay of Pigs fiasco, when the seeming Harvard educated geniuses all came up with what they thought was the brilliant idea of invading Cuba. When it failed catastrophically everyone wondered how so many smart people could come up with such a stupid idea. And it was because nobody asked questions, dared to challenge the “experts,” etc. Thus, I don’t begrudge the Wall Street Journal questioning the actions being taken. We have 52 cases here in Maine, population 1.3 million. No deaths. The economy has been shut down, with thousands losing their jobs, businesses closing, great hardships being imposed on many. And yet we see China over the hump with 3,500 dead out of 1.4 billion. If we believe a lot of the experts, we will see like 11 million dead out of 329 million here in the US. Unlike David, I say it is ok to go outside of groupthink and at least question those premises. And that doesn’t mean you are a Neanderthal if you do so.

But the question becomes, why did we have to do these drastic measures in the first place?

Because even now we have no clue where the clusters are, and how and where it is spreading, thanks to the admin dragging it's feet. With the 2.5 month head start, if we had the test kits/masks/protection available when the first case hit, we could have isolated the communities/people and taken only selective measures to minimize all this health and economic chaos. Because the admin didn't pay much attention, now we don't know how far and deep the communities are at risk, and we just have a blanket lock down measures...Yes, some measures might prove an overkill when all this passes, but the admin put the country in that position.

I don't care about someone else losing his/her job as much as I care about my SO's health trying deal with it at work place with no protective gear. I bet everyone would also feel the same, call it groupthink or not...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:08 pm

I care about everybody, CV, including those in poverty who don’t know where their next meals are coming from.
If even more dangerous hardships are going to be imposed on them, I want to make sure it is justified and based on reality and not hysteria.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:11 pm

JimHow wrote:I care about everybody, CV, including those in poverty who don’t know where their next meals are coming from.
If even more dangerous hardships are going to be imposed on them, I want to make sure it is justified and based on reality and not hysteria.

But I do not equate someone losing job to someone getting exposed to it with underlying conditions...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:14 pm

I hope the shut down of the global economy accomplishes that, CV.
The “experts” are telling us that it will.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:15 pm

Tom In DC wrote:Exactly, Nic - if we had had multiple "end of Raiders of the Lost Ark"-sized warehouses full of aging ventilators and expiring N95 masks and an investigative reporter had found them there would have been hell to pay about all the wasted money.

That’s not what I was saying, though. Didn’t need end of the world sized warehouses laying fallow. Should have ramped up 1-2 months ago.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:19 pm

AKR wrote:I've just detected another case of TDS !!!

Now this is something I wish would infect the entire population.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:30 pm

JimHow wrote:I hope the shut down of the global economy accomplishes that, CV.
The “experts” are telling us that it will.

Probably, I didn't say the way I intented to say, Jim. The shutdown of economy is the consequence of this admin's inaction during the headstart months (Dec to Mar) rather than as a measured response to the severity of the crisis. As David put it in his post,-- "Didn’t need end of the world sized warehouses laying fallow. Should have ramped up 1-2 months ago."

Regarding I getting pissed off with the inaction of admin is the fact that SO is dealing with it at her workplace (like I outlined above with anecdotes). And I can tell you, it's not a good feeling in that situation as she has an underlying condition. So I don't care about others losing jobs as much as I care about her health risk. And talking about elderly with their own underlying conditions is also another thing..

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:32 pm

According to the New York Times lawyers are among the highest risk as well.
Of course, most think that's a good thing.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:41 pm

JimHow wrote:According to the New York Times lawyers are among the highest risk as well.
Of course, most think that's a good thing.

I agree, and also teachers are also at great risk. But it does not hold water Jim, due to the nature of critical care services...

Schools can be shutdown, courts can be shutdown, law offices and businesses can be shutdown...But healthcare facilities and healthcare services cannot be shutdown....Healthcare workers are never out of risk, until they themselves get sick...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:44 pm

Healthcare professionals who choose to undertake that profession are great heroes.
Many people who work for a living to sustain society are heroes as well.
We are all in this together... the rich, the poor, the health care professionals... even the lawyers.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:49 pm

JimHow wrote:Healthcare professionals who choose to undertake that profession are great heroes.
Many people who work for a living to sustain society are heroes as well.
We are all in this together... the rich, the poor, the health care professionals... even the lawyers.

Well said, Jim. Such as these times, she feels it's a thankless job because of people in charge put them in such positions (by not providing much needed supplies), but she is proud and extremely happy about what she does...

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:55 pm

JimHow wrote:We are all in this together... the rich, the poor, the health care professionals... even the lawyers.

Absolutely. We have to do what we can to save lives first. We’ll have to deal with the economic repercussions, but that’s secondary right now.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:23 pm

Yes David but no amount of protection for our healthcare workers is going to help us if in the meantime we are reduced to soylent green fillets with our fine northern Medocs....

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:28 pm

The WSJ editorial basically asked what I thought was a very legitimate question: How long can the global shutdown be sustained?
I don't know if anybody has a true idea of that.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:35 pm

JimHow wrote:The WSJ editorial basically asked what I thought was a very legitimate question: How long can the global shutdown be sustained?
I don't know if anybody has a true idea of that.

That's a very legitimate question, but if it drags on, I am afraid people might be less sensitive and more acceptable to the notion of "unavoidable deaths"...

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:50 pm

JimHow wrote:Yes David but no amount of protection for our healthcare workers is going to help us if in the meantime we are reduced to soylent green fillets with our fine northern Medocs....

I’m not talking about healthcare workers alone, though we need enough of them to take care of the rest of us.. I’m talking about saving lives in the general population.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:53 pm

Hopefully we save them before we run out of food because nobody is working. Otherwise, nobody here gets out alive.

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:09 pm

I recommend this opinion piece from a leading biostatistician:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:12 pm

Chateau Vin wrote:
JimHow wrote:The WSJ editorial basically asked what I thought was a very legitimate question: How long can the global shutdown be sustained?
I don't know if anybody has a true idea of that.
That's a very legitimate question, but if it drags on, I am afraid people might be less sensitive and more acceptable to the notion of "unavoidable deaths"...

I agree with this. Gotta give it the full-court press to start, and reassess.

The trouble with trying to have a discussion about policy A vs. policy B and their effect on morbidity and mortality from Coronavirus is that it’s all estimates and predictions subject to bias. People don’t want to talk in terms of how many deaths are "acceptable" because it’s hard to think in those terms and it isn’t that simple.

The number of deaths is unknown until after the fact, and estimates will vary widely.

The effects of policy A vs. policy B are also estimates as there are multiple variables and adherence to A or B are not entirely predictable. The economic ramifications of A and B are not only unknown but estimates are subject to tremendous political bias.

No one will say a specific number of deaths is acceptable because whatever policy they are advocating will be immediately and effectively attacked for it. The only way to advocate for any path is to try to predict how many lives it will save (or how many fewer will die). The economic effects of that can be discussed. That happens every day in the health policy world when dealing with every day diseases.

Having said that, Sen. Ron Johnson a few days ago suggested that minimizing the economic repercussions of shutting down nonessential businesses by letting them remain open might result in the death of "no more than" 1% - 3.4% of the US population (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... y-die.html). That’s 3-11 million dead.

When facing the potential of millions of deaths, the rational and humanitarian approach is to save lives first and sort out the economic and other collateral damage later. Those who don’t believe this pandemic has the potential for causing millions of deaths don’t know or don’t want to know the facts.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:16 pm

JimHow wrote:Hopefully we save them before we run out of food because nobody is working. Otherwise, nobody here gets out alive.

Food production and distribution has not been threatened or shut down. A massive spike in cases could threaten it, but this is not something I’ve heard is near the top of the list of worries. Despite your difficulty finding chicken breasts in ME. The shortages are related to hoarding behavior and will likely (hopefully) ease in the coming weeks. It would help if the panic level were reduced, and there I agree with you that there is some irrational "hysteria."

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:25 pm

stefan wrote:I recommend this opinion piece from a leading biostatistician:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

That’s a good perspective. Some oversimplification (understandable for the scope of the article) and some assumptions that may or may not be valid, but the core premise that we don’t have enough data to know where this will end up is sound.

dstgolf · Post by **dstgolf** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:33 pm

CV,

The primary care physicians and specialists that have to still see patients here have also had issues about PPE but the govt and private suppliers have stepped up Like David mentioned the stockroom doors with expired PPEs etc have been opened and distributed. I was involved with a town hall this week online and I'm amazed that physicians have locked down there offices to patients. Appointment only and receptionist/MD decide if patient has no symptoms to suggest covid and need other care needs addressed appointment made. Patient waits in car and called in by cellphone or texted to come to office once last patient left and door locked behind them then next patient asked to come in. Those that don't need an office visit are being managed online through the telemedicine network. If they are suspected of covid they are referred to one of three test centers set up in the city with more to come. Portable CXR at facilities not so much to screen for covid as routine CXR not very sensitive to detect early pulomonary involvement. With all this a lot of internet bandwidth is being required. With everyone at home either trying to work from home,gaming,streaming,chatting etc the bandwidth is being shared and I've been involved locally and provincially to bring a pending disaster to the forefront on Tuesday am. By Friday our IT people had been all over it securing larger pipeline access into the hospitals so everyone doesn't get bogged down. Load balancers on the servers are being augmented and the internet providers are stepping up to find solutions like never before.

Our two main teaching hospitals have 56 ventilators between them and there are another 44 between the two community hospitals. 400 ICU ventilators and 300 ??disposable ventilators( not sure what these are) are to come from our cities doomsday storage facilities this week and next as per Davids suggestion south of the border.

The mobilization will take place I'm sure and I hope for your wife's sake CV she can eliminate most face to face encounters and take more precautions to protect herself with PPEs/virox/purel etc etc. We can't get sick as physicians (but it's inevitable) for everyone else's sake and we are all in this together to share ideas as to what people are doing to get through this as unscathed as possible. Forecasters are are downgrading the mortality rate to about 1-2% if we can believe this. Italy skewed because their healthcare system was simply overwhelmed and inadequately prepared. Poor docs there were forced to decide who lives and who dies because of limited resources. My partners cousin said they started at 80 then 70 then 60 yo and if you got sick and were over 60 unfortunately you were are your own. What a nightmare to live through as a caring physician but that's what they have faced so I have been told. This is what we are scrambling to prevent.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:07 pm

For me personally, my biggest issue is getting my friend back from Taipei, we have no idea when that is going to happen.
I was in NYC last weekend looking at apartments but now everything is on hold.
This little vacation has been otherwise nice. No court to go to. I'm in no rush for them to reopen, although I'm sure we are going to be backlogged when they do. I'm able to work -- and bill -- from home in jeans, getting caught up on cases, especially my murder cases. Court is closed down til May 4th. Don't have to put on a suit. Just went out and picked up a pepperoni pizza, double dough. That's a splurge for me, I've been on a diet and exercise regimen the past couple weeks. Had a very lovely 2006 d'Angerville Volnay Champans the other night, a beauty, at least for me in a very nice place but I'm sure it will have a long plateau of maturity. I'll just be glad when the planes are flying again.

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:26 pm

Ah, back to wine on this wine board, Jim!

Yesterday we drank 2015 St Innocent Freedom Hill and Zenith. Neither has gone dumb and both are good, although we both decidedly preferred the FH. Today is our recalibration day, so I opened a 2002 Potel Chambolle-Musigny Les Charmes to have with pork chops that were to be grilled but are being baked instead because of the lousy weather in our outdoor kitchen. Our area will dry out within a few days and the predicted high for Thursday is 91F. I hope the coronavirus hates heat as much as the seasonal flu does.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:05 am

This puppy was singing the other night....

brodway · Post by **brodway** » Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:31 am

Jim

The D'Angerville Volnay is one of my favorites bar none. I was introduced to it by Tim M in Paris several years ago. Rarely do i see them on any retail displays but always on the look out for them. The 2010's are beautiful, like music in a glass.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:46 am

Sigh, yeah, Emil, I got a bunch of them back in the day for $35 per bottle.
Now they go for like $135 per bottle.
I've got a half dozen left.

felixp21 · Post by **felixp21** » Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:22 am

PERHAPS PEOPLE MAY CARE TO READ MY ORIGINAL POST, IN THE OTHER THREAD, DATED FEBRUARY 24TH 2020

Indeed, read the entire first page of that thread. As a doctor, with first-hand experience concerning the disaster in China, I quite clearly spelt out the impending disaster and really was interested in what may become of the EP system. On February 24th, the date of my OP, there were 1825 recorded cases of Corona outside China. 1825. A pimple on the horizon, so it was thought.
Re-reading it, looks to me very much like I was the one insulted, wow, even accused of schadenfreude by one board member, so arrogant and ignorant was his disposition at that time.
So, excuse me if I get a little of my own back. This whole exercise has been a little bit like talking to a bunch of unreceptive seven year olds, the writing has been on the wall for two months. Trump, Boris, Macron, ScoMo, Conte et al simply chose to stick their heads in the sand, despite the panic-stricken please of so many doctors in all those countries. I have been telling everyone who wants to discuss it since the middle of January, that this will be the greatest disaster this World has ever seen, both World Wars included. If not because of the human cost, then certainly because of the economic cost.
The only way to beat this virus is by total and absolute lock-down, ie the Chinese way. But the West simply did not want to face that reality, and now it's too late. An enormous number of lives will be needlessly lost due to fear of decisive action. A fear brought about by the economic loss, not the human toll. Sadly, in the end, the economic loss will be the same, the death count massively higher than it should have been.
There is ABSOLUTELY no doubt the US were far too slow to act, but don't feel too bad, so was the whole of Europe, Oceania, and most of Central and South America.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:39 am

Felix, I agree with CV.
I don't know what you are getting so upset about.
I've always enjoyed your participation here on BWE, you seem to have a great spirit about you.
Yes, there has been some spirited commentary here. I've been getting insulted on this site for 20 years.
I just don't take it personally. I just roll my eyes and deal with it.
I've read with interest your informative messages about the virus.
I think it was Jacques who said elsewhere that some of the most informative material we've seen on this issue has come from you.
Most of your predictions about shutdowns, etc., have been very accurate.
Hopefully your prediction that "the death count will be massively higher than it should have been" will be wrong!
Hopefully we won't see even a fraction of the 68 million deaths you have predicted as a possibility.
But I just don't think you need to get so upset, or be so angry and outraged just when somebody questions some of the premises about what is happening. We're just having a discussion, asking questions, challenging premises.
It's what I do for a living, I challenge, cross-examine the government narrative in my criminal cases every day of the week.
It's not the end of the world... Well, er, wait a minute....

It looks like China has made progress in resolving this, hopefully we can do the same.
What's the latest where you are? How are the infection and death rates?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:00 am

We've diagnosed 54 cases here in Maine as of this afternoon, zero deaths, in a population of 1.4 million.
Everything here in Maine is shut down, the streets are very quiet. Not sure what we can do much more than what we are doing.
One of the interesting "good" things we are seeing out of this is that they are letting many people out of jail, mostly non-violent offenders.

Claudius2 · Post by **Claudius2** » Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:50 am

Folks
I have not directly attacked the narratives and sophistry of Felix up to this point.
However, it is worth noting that his posts have offered little or no data and a lot of arrogant hyperbole.
So below is a critique of the nonsense that he has come up with.

A. China did a great job containing the virus
I almost fell over laughing when he said this on the Trump thread.
I have twice debunked this, and as time goes on, it is looking more naive. Maybe he read it on a CCP press release or XINHUA column.
The cover-ups, information shut-downs, bullying and intimidation of medical staff and lies were typical tools of communists.
Again, I provided a time line for this on the Trump thread.
Now like any other issue, he has provided no evidence or even argument.

B. The C-19 virus is killing lots of healthy young people - unlike others.
This braindead comment was made AFTER the Chinese CDC released extensive data on the age of persons dying from the virus.
I even provided the link to the site but of course it wasn't what he wanted to hear and so he ignored it.
The death rate was found to be 0.2% among those under 40, and 14.8% among those 80+. That is 74 times the probability.
New information (released today by the WHO and Italian health authorities) shows the median age of deaths is 79, AND over 99% of those dying have pre-existing illnesses identified as co-morbidities.

C). Young children are immune from the disease
Wrong. The death rate and infection rate is lower in children but just here in Singapore, there have been diagnosed cases of babies as young as 5 months with the virus, and numerous young children.

Interestingly, Felix made point B), above and then backslided and made point C).
Absolutely no data was provided in wither case, just hot air and sophistry.

D). Deaths will be 32-68 Million
I pointed out previously how long this would take. The rate of deaths and new infections has rapidly risen since the disease has spread in Europe, but has slowed to a trickle in China and other SE Asian nations which were affected by the virus in its early stages. China, Japan (and that Princes ship) and South Korea were hit badly though new infections have dramatically slowed.
The latter is also being gobbled up by the Chinese media and strangely, Trump is attacked for calling it the "Chinese virus".
Funny, I don't recall anyone defending the Spanish despite the fact that the Spanish flu did NOT originate in Spain.

E). We should rely on anecdotal evidence like the British Army in WW2.
Many thanks to Felix for "proving" that empirical and scientific data is no longer useful, and we will just have to shut down Universities and research institutes all over the world.
All those centuries of science and rational thought clearly must be would back. And I now know that he learned nothing from science.
I suggest that researchers need to accept that Medieval thinking must return. Let's blame evil spirits and poltergeists.
Further, my father was in the British Army from 1936 to 1947, being the whole period of the war, and then in India (peacekeeping forces).
He never said to rely on anecdotal evidence and pushed his children to learn science instead.
Of course, he really should have known better.
However, I again point out that Felix has provided lots of opinions with no evidence, so I see why he argues for anecdotal evidence.

F. There are ALWAYS lulls in disease contagion.
I will believe this only when epidemiologists provide clear evidence of ALL disease outbreaks throughout history.
The Spanish flu I have already commented on, and to say that there were lulls totally ignores the reality of that disease.
It affected Europe during the warmer months in 1918, but virologists have since shown that the virus morphed into a different form of the disease, that was both more aggressive and hit Europe during autumn and winter, when troops were returning and the nations were weakened from the war.
In the case of C-19, there are numerous factors which have affected how it has spread. Some of those factors - such as international travel - are a relatively modern phenomenon.

If you consider the Bubonic Plague, it spiked many times, hitting large tracts of the world at vastly different times.
In that case, a "lull" would be several hundred years in a few cases.
It first reared its ugly head in the 6th century (Plague of Justinian) and re-occurred for the next 200 years in varying degrees.
The absence of knowledge of disease at the time meant it was blamed on "sinfulness".
Maybe Felix and his anecdotes can find another cute cause.
Next it hit Europe in in 1347 and it estimated to have killed one third of the European population not to mention people elsewhere (where reliable data is sparse).
Since then, there have been sporadic outbreaks, particularly in east China in the 1890's, and it still is killing people now.

G). Surgical masks and sanitisers work.
I have twice warned that the usage of simple sanitisers and surgical masks is NOT a guaranteed form of prevention.
Clearly Felix did not like this comment and called it shite.
He clearly knows better, despite the fact that the manufacturers of both in Singapore have emphasised many times that neither are a sure fire way of preventing infection.
The common surgical masks I keep seeing here and in every news story from overseas shows usage of masks that are not designed to catch viruses, and they have also not protected many health workers who have caught the disease.
That is why the Singaporean health authorities have had to import massive numbers of N-95 masks, and also recommended only certain types of sanitisers.
Viruses can and do get past common surgical masks as they are around 0.3μm.
Further, researchers in Singapore have found that the virus can live for considerably longer than initially thought, up to 2 days depending on the surface (especially in hot and damp weather like here) and in the air for 3-4 hours.

H. There clearly aren't multiple versions of the COVID-19 virus.
Again, I have provided links to published research that clearly shows that Chinese researchers have isolated two versions of the virus - S and L.
The L type is more aggressive whilst the S type was found to be "historical".
If anyone wants to check it out, read the following:
https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-ar ... chresult=1

Now, this is the THIRD time I have stated this.
It is not an opinion and I also pointed out that the Spanish flu of 1918 morphed into a more aggressive form in the autumn of that year.

I). It is 32 C all the time in Singapore
I strongly suggest that Felix contacts the weather bureau here, as they must be lying about the weather.
The temperature range yesterday was reported to be 24-35C. Clearly, nobody bothered consulting the only person on the planet who knows everything.

My final point is that calling the posts of others (whether me, Alex or anyone else) "complete shite", "nonsense" or whatever, and then calling individuals "complete wankers" who dare to question you, is NOT an argument.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:53 am

What a totally unnecessary and gratuitous message, Claudius, I’m going to start deleting posts that insult other BWEers.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:13 pm

Very depressing reading this morning. What Bordeaux goes with oatmeal? Maybe a couple of Scotches...

I can only hope that these Columbia researchers are off in their estimates or that warm weather is much less hospitable to this particular Coronavirus than others and we have an early heat wave. Even then, probably no vaccine until the next round next winter. Peaks are predicted early to mid May in most states, later in more isolated areas.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... n_20200322

If the Columbia folks are close to being right and we don’t maintain significant separation, it looks bad.Hope we do enough and it’s not already too late.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/worl ... 0820200322

And so much economic pain to come as well.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/busi ... n_20200322

RPCV · Post by **RPCV** » Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:05 pm

Thought this might be helpful to the board members:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

dstgolf · Post by **dstgolf** » Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:43 pm

David,

Thanks for those articles. Especially the NYT report on the Italian experience are telling and that we all need to heed their advice and learn from their mistakes. No one knows really where this is going or how bad it will get but Italy has certainly paid a tremendous price and the warning lights have been flashing for quite some time. The control measures seem draconian and the economic consequences are going to result in unheralded pain in its own right. Unfortunately we have never lived through or experienced anything like this in our lifetime and what we are seeing is that statistics being thrown around are estimates at best and differ based on local experience and access to care. Since Italy in areas can't offer help to patients over 60 their local death rates are severely skewed. At this early stage the death rate in North America seems quite modest by comparison and I believe it all stems from our superb health systems not reaching the saturation range at this time and resources can be thrown at significantly compromised patients but people are still dying. Personally people I believe need to be informed and information is power. Hopefully we can all get along and not throw so much sand in this sandbox of ours but respect the fact that we can all learn from each other. I agree with JAL that through this site and the early postings leading up to this France trip we were ahead of the curve from a knowledge base than the average population and I'm thankful for that allowing us to avert a disaster by pulling the plug before it was too late and keeping everyone safe in their own homes instead of being trapped overseas.

Claudius2 · Post by **Claudius2** » Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:47 pm

Jim
I have just sent you a PM.
I am not sure it has gone thru (it seems to be in my outbox) so please advise if you did not receive it.
Mark

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:52 pm

Let's all move to Taiwan:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/taiwan ... -1.5505031

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:15 pm

RPCV wrote:Thought this might be helpful to the board members:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The US data from 3/20 offers a glimmer of hope that we might be starting to bend the curve, but it's just one day's data. And if it zooms up further we still won't know how much of the increase is due to increased availability of tests (if they really are increasingly available - can't trust what our administration says) or increased infections. This will be a lesson in how not to prepare for or respond to a pandemic.