Wine in the age of the corona.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:10 am

Still alive, here in Maine.

Feel perfectly fine.

No sniffles or coughs.

We are in a sort of state of martial law here in the otherwise Great State of Maine.

As with other states in the United States, restaurants, bars, etc., are closed except for "take out."

Incredibly, the courts are closed until May 1st:

https://www.sunjournal.com/2020/03/17/d ... dTn3DRBPTY

That's pretty crazy, as constitutional rights are basically being suspended....

A few shelves here and there are disconcertingly empty at the supermarkets, but that seems to be more an issue of hoarding than supply stream.

Still, it invokes momentary images of rationioning or, gulp, even... starvation....

I have no plans of buying wine any time soon. Indeed, we are are moving into a new paradigm here, we may be selling wine for the first time....

JCNorthway · Post by **JCNorthway** » Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:17 am

we may be selling wine for the first time

What is that?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:22 am

Ha..If it reaches the state of utter starvation.

felixp21 · Post by **felixp21** » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:24 am

Yes, it is indeed an incredible turn of events, not unexpected by those who went thru it in China (happily, today is day one of the conquest.... not a solitary new de novo case reported in a country of 1.4 billion, an extraordinary effort) but frighteningly surprising to the rest.
What will become of 2020 in the wine world? who is going to pick the grapes if this thing drags on another six months? More importantly for us Aussies, who the hell is going to pick the grapes in a couple of weeks time down here!!!!!!!?????
How the hell is the 2019 wine going to get sold? Or the 2018 vintage for that matter?? What about global consumption??? If ya can't buy it, ya can't drink it!!! What do the importers do when the restaurants they regularly sold to have gone belly up?? What happens to cellar door sales?? Which millionaire who has just dropped 30-50% of his wealth on stocks (that is a long way from bottoming out) is going to pick up his 35 cases of 1st and 2nd Growths??

So many wine questions, so few wine answers. As I said in the other thread, exciting and unusual times in the wine world to follow!!!!

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:05 pm

I am hoping the 2017s cheapen up a fair bit. Sounds like my kind of vintage.

RPCV · Post by **RPCV** » Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:54 pm

I know there are a few physicians on the board....crazy question. What if someone infected with C-19 is bottling wine? Will the virus survive inside the bottle? Common sense says no, but I am sure this question will be asked about wine and other preserved/bottled goods.

Jay Winton · Post by **Jay Winton** » Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:23 pm

I bought a case of Sancerre delivered to my door. mrs vino needs her wine.

Nicklasss · Post by **Nicklasss** » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:43 pm

I guess the alcohol neutralize the virus. This now why i drink a bit everyday.

Our government are asking more and more to people everyday. Now it is recommended to not travel from one region to another region in Québec... what's next tomorrow?

My parents have their flight back from Spain to Canada cancelled again. Waiting new info for new fligjt. but they're emptying the building where they're living on Monday 0:00... my mother is now stressed out.

Nic

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:57 pm

My April 11th trip to Alaska for my court case has been postponed.
Nobody who hasn't been in Alaska for at least 14 days is allowed in the Alaska courts.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:59 pm

Was supposed to be leaving Boston for France just about... now.
My best friend is stuck in Taipei, no idea when next we shall rendezvous.
Sad times. Hopefully we will have this behind us sooner rather than later.
Even Tommy Brady is gone.
Stay safe, BWEers around the globe.
BD

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:02 am

My region has moved from the recommendation to 'shelter in place' to a legal requirement with some kind of enforcement behind it. Lots of emails from my employer about it, because we are deemed 'essential services' but people's badges are not activated to go in the building. I have been making an attempt at telework. It basically takes me 2-3x as long to do anything via remote than when I'm at the office with my battery of machines & screens, so that is frustrating, even if its not something I can really blame anyone for.

======

There is no shortage of wine emails coming through, with prices at laughable levels. The economic shock that is happening in real time is worse than 2008. Probably twice as bad. I don't think it makes any sense to buy anything until prices reflect that reality, which might take a year or so. A lot of wealth, purchasing power has been destroyed in a month - some of which will never come back - and discretionary items are going to feel some of that.

Noted artist/bond impressario Jeff Gundlach observed how he's been offered collectable art at a discount, although not the trophies he covets.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:13 am

Why are your parents having trouble getting back from Spain to Canada, Nicola?

jal · Post by **jal** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:15 am

This pandemic sucks. The reasons we retired early was:
Traveling.
Being with friends and families.
It's like the old saying: Man plans, and God laughs.
Stay safe out there BWE'ers. Stay healthy and that too shall pass.

dstgolf · Post by **dstgolf** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:34 am

Jim,

No air space availability for Nice parents I'm sure. I have friends and colleagues stuck around the world. Our best friends travelled to South Africa Cape Town to celebrate her 60th and tentatively have a flight home booked not until March 27 and are concerned will there be a plane available to get them out or will transfer points be in lock down by then. Cousin on a flight back from Australia that took 4 days til he could get on a flight. Entry points from overseas to Canada limited to Toronto/Montreal/Calgary/Vancouver and if you have any symptoms you are quarantined on entry. Not fun times ahead. Hospital now on lockdown with all elective cases cancelled. Monday work as usual. Today a ghost town with NO cases of cover at our site yet but preparation underway for offsite screening centre to stream ill patients away from ER to be triaged elsewhere.

dstgolf · Post by **dstgolf** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:56 am

AlexR,

Are you really under house arrest/Marshall Law in France now. This was posted in our paper today...thank god we're not flying out tonight!!

“French people now need to fill out a form to leave the house during their coronavirus lockdown. Those who breach the conditions will be fined. The ramped up measures come after people reportedly refused to heed the government’s earlier suggestions to stay at home and avoid public spaces.“

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:00 am

I'm still cautiously skeptical.
Looks like China is coming out of it with, what, 3,500 deaths?
Out of 1.4 billion.
Looks like Italy, one of the hundreds of nations on the globe, has a little more than that.
Sounds like that one country on the globe has a real crisis, we should do whatever we can to help them.
Kudos to South Korea, it sounds like they have been about the best in the response. And Taiwan too.
The United States has less than 150 deaths.
Hardly the 68 million projected by Felix.

I agree with some recent articles questioning why children can't visit their parents in nursing homes when workers in nursing homes are going home, often working second jobs, with no restrictions, and coming back to care for the same patients that the loved ones are barred from seeing.

I dunno. I'm sure I'm a Neanderthal if I dare to question the shut-the-globe-down response, but I have my questions.

Children can't see their parents on deathbeds, but millenials are partying on the beaches in Florida.

Call me skeptical. Maybe I'll be less skeptical if we see Felix's 68 million figure. Right now we are in the several thousand on a planet of 8 billion that sees many higher numbers of death from flu and other illnesses and diseases every year.

But I could be wrong.

Right now, disturbingly, I find myself agreeing with the WSJ editorial page:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/rethinking ... opin_pos_1

Is this a global emergency, or one big groupthink fiasco? Or something in between?

I guess we are about to find out.

We have 42 cases here in Maine as of this afternoon, no signs that anyone is dying. Thousands of businesses have been closed, many thousands of people have lost their livelihoods based on the opinions of "experts" that this will get exponentially worse. When should we expect to see 68 million deaths, Felix?

johnz · Post by **johnz** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:49 am

Good Wine Folks -- California has offered the most recent sobering prediction:

In an extreme estimate, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said more than half of California’s population could be infected with the new virus that causes COVID-19 over the next eight weeks – totaling more than 25 million people.

Considering that 20% would need hospitalization, and a percentage of that ICU beds . .. . well,

I will be popping the corks on some of my best wines soon.

--Gary Rust

SF Ed · Post by **SF Ed** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:55 am

If we are good at this, we won't see all the deaths being forecast, and then folks with Jim's attitude (which I completely understand even if I don't agree) will say that we took too many precautions and hurt the economy too much.

My parents are the classic 90-somethings in assisted living. I just got my mom up on Skype and now video conference with her daily. And I could still easily see her in person as she could sneak out. My father, not so much, but they are trying to keep these folks alive. One case in a nursing home and they will have major consequences. I totally get it.

I had a 1989 Raffault Les Picasses Chinon tonight with smoked duck from The Morris. Gotta help all those restaurateurs make it though this if I can. Earthy and lean, with good complexity and fully mature. Old Chinon isn't as good as old BDX but a very pleasant Thursday night under lockdown.

We'll get through this.

SF Ed

dhp · Post by **dhp** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:53 am

JimHow wrote:I'm still cautiously skeptical.
Looks like China is coming out of it with, what, 3,500 deaths?
Out of 1.4 billion.
Looks like Italy, one of the hundreds of nations on the globe, has a little more than that.
Sounds like that one country on the globe has a real crisis, we should do whatever we can to help them.
Kudos to South Korea, it sounds like they have been about the best in the response. And Taiwan too.
The United States has less than 150 deaths.
Hardly the 68 million projected by Felix.

I agree with some recent articles questioning why children can't visit their parents in nursing homes when workers in nursing homes are going home, often working second jobs, with no restrictions, and coming back to care for the same patients that the loved ones are barred from seeing.

I dunno. I'm sure I'm a Neanderthal if I dare to question the shut-the-globe-down response, but I have my questions.

Children can't see their parents on deathbeds, but millenials are partying on the beaches in Florida.

Call me skeptical. Maybe I'll be less skeptical if we see Felix's 68 million figure. Right now we are in the several thousand on a planet of 8 billion that sees many higher numbers of death from flu and other illnesses and diseases every year.

But I could be wrong.

Right now, disturbingly, I find myself agreeing with the WSJ editorial page:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/rethinking ... opin_pos_1

Is this a global emergency, or one big groupthink fiasco? Or something in between?

I guess we are about to find out.

We have 42 cases here in Maine as of this afternoon, no signs that anyone is dying. Thousands of businesses have been closed, many thousands of people have lost their livelihoods based on the opinions of "experts" that this will get exponentially worse. When should we expect to see 68 million deaths, Felix?

I, too, think that the WSJ editorial brings up a lot of salient points. This mass lockdown approach is not sustainable, and it's unclear if it can even be efficacious enough to be worth economic devastation. HOWEVER...

Why pretend like this is not a global health emergency? We all know the power of exponential growth. We put our money and faith in the god of compounding interest to grow our retirement funds. This time, the growth rate is 200-400%, not ~5%. The data is out there. New York state has 5300 confirmed cases. 2300 of those were from just yesterday. Then what will tomorrow bring? Saturday? And if lockdown measures hadn't been put in place, what would next Friday look like?

In a major NYC hospital, three entire floors are full of only Covid patients. 3/4 of the ER sees only rule-out-Covid patients, and that includes makeshift tent structures built solely for the purpose of seeing more Covid patients. The need for ventilators is so high that older patients who code are not resuscitated and intubated because those patients have a low probability of survival. Healthcare providers hardly have any protection as supplies run dry, and they are at terrible risk of contracting this virus, and many already have. Already, there are multiple cases of relatively young providers in the New York area on ventilators because they are so sick from this disease. And to think this may only be the beginning.

This DOES NOT HAPPEN IN FLU SEASON. I REPEAT. THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN IN FLU SEASON. Not even in peak flu season does this happen, and based on the data, we're nowhere near "peak" coronavirus season.

I hope and pray that we reach that peak soon with the help of all this social distancing. Hope that summer time will give us a respite so that we can shore up medical supplies, staff, and testing supplies, and if it returns in the fall/winter, be able to better control the spread without these lockdown measures. My greatest hope is that the numbers of asymptomatic patients is orders of magnitude higher than what we think, and that this virus burns itself out, because I'm not convinced a vaccine will arrive in time to stave off the worst of this.

It seems to be human nature to deny the unseeable in the not-so-distant future. Greenhouse gas emissions are another. Once the problem is obvious, it's too late.

dstgolf · Post by **dstgolf** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:14 am

Jim,

I get this bug is very real. When we look at numbers of people with disease we have to look at case reporting and who is reporting. The western world is a believer in Italies numbers of deaths and what disease is capable of doing. 6+% death rate overall and if you are over 60 it climbs to 20+% with over 50% mortality over 80 yo. Problem with counting numbers of people with CONFIRMED disease there is a shortage of test kits everywhere and only test confirmed cases are being counted. Who gets tested varies where you live. Egypt little to no testing so their numbers very low but reality I'm told is case load rocketing. In North America we likely have 10+ XS the cases in each community than is currently being reported. Locally you have to have fever or respiratory symptoms to be elligable for testing. If you are well enough to self isolate you are told to do so for 14 days and are presumed to have the disease but may well not but you are not counted as a positive case. The younger you are the more mild your symptoms and the youth breeze through a very mild cold to scratchy throat. No big deal. Unfortunately us old farts with high BP, coronary disease, COPD are at very high risk of dying. This whole process is to blunt the curve so we don't overwhelm our healthcare systems as well as isolating you and I to keep us alive!!!. I take this very seriously but I also feel at least on this side of the border how we have mobilized in such a short period. It's is like preparing for www3. We have never lived through this before and our goal is to come out the other side. If this turns out to be the dud and overhyped doomsday that you refer to Jim and it's a short lived scenario then I look at this as a success. Go to the Hopkins website and see their predictions. They feel we are at the very beginning in North America and this will last til July/August. Don't think this is done in a couple of weeks. China did well to control this but there are skeptics that aren't sure about how much is propaganda and how much is real. Where is Russia on this?? Few to no cases reported but they are having a spike in pneumonia???!!!

Felix alerted everyone to the severity of the disease and I give him credit for that. Problem was he wasn't quoting any facts ,was inciting fear, and getting very accusatory/insulting which I objected to as a physician. Our job is to assimilate data, discuss all sides and present an often changing opinion as a disease/disaster evolves to present the best possible information available. As a profession we are all coming up to speed very quickly in our respective fields. I pray we come out as planned with a dampened result but will will come out better prepared for the next for sure and I believe like allies during the war ties will be made and we will all be better off but a little bruised coming out. Enough of my sleepless soapbox. Goodnight.

See if this video will download. Its a shocking prediction by Bill Gates from 5yrs ago. Talk about bang on!!

/Users/dannytenaschuk/Downloads/VIDEO-2020-03-15-13-16-36 (1).mp4

dstgolf · Post by **dstgolf** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:18 am

Sorry that link didn't work. This will....I hope.

https://www.msn.com/en-sg/health/medica ... li=BBr8Cnr

felixp21 · Post by **felixp21** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:05 am

DST, I was quoting anecdotal evidence from WuHan, first-hand, anecdotal evidence. The stuff that you, me, and every other man of science in the West ignores (although, interestingly, in WW2, the allies quickly learned that anecdotal evidence was by far the most useful.... and promptly forgot all about it in 1945). FWIW, I sold all my shares in the second to last week of January, made sure my family was safe, and acted quickly on the information with which I was supplied, thankfully, both from a financial and health perspective, I have escaped this disaster thus far with minimal damage. I only wish the rest of the World had taken more notice of the plight of Hubei.

I watched in bemusement when Fauci rambled on how the asymptomatic don't spread disease, how the kids are harmless blah blah, because he did not take ANY of the lessons clearly coming out of WuHan. Three weeks later, he is saying the EXACT opposite, again much to my bemusement.

Not sure that I ever insulted you, although I certainly did (hopefully) insult an arrogant and ignorant non-medical Bordeaux resident whose boorish behaviour reflected exactly why Europe is in such dire straits at the moment.
Alex is quite probably a nice guy, but when I am accused of "lying" and "spreading fake rumours" about something with which I knew to be the absolute truth, frustration and exasperation might well have got the better of me.

Australia, and the USA, are about to face a situation they have not faced for a 100 years, and it ain't going to be pretty. Best guesses are that the true mortality rate is around 1.2%, the 4.1% current rate inflated by non-presentations. With a flattened curve, that still means a mortality in Australia approaching 25-40,000, with the US about 15 times that.

At least we have, hopefully, put to bed the idea that this is "fake news"

Nicklasss · Post by **Nicklasss** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:41 pm

Hello Jim.

My parents had a flight with one stop in Boston, so as all flights from outside USA aren't allowed anymore, many people had to change for direct flight. Not enough flights... not it seems they're coming back tomorrow, with a direct flight from Madrid. We'll see if that change.

Nic

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:48 pm

Good luck to them, Nicola.
I've been struggling to find chicken on the supermarket shelves all week, I finally found a last remaining package of skinless breasts.

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:15 pm

Felix, are you predicting at least 375,000 deaths in the USA from Covid-19 DESPITE the actions that have been taken?

dstgolf · Post by **dstgolf** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:07 am

Stefan,

I think the USA has been a little slow off the mark despite all of the warnings from what we are seeing by comparison north of the border. 3000 new cases reported in New York since yesterday but problem is these numbers reflect tests that were done last week and not yesterday!! We are told the hospitals in NYC are becoming overwhelmed and who knows. When I saw everyone on the beach in Florida yesterday I couldn't believe. Talk about aa vulnerable population in Florida and when the bug takes off there it could be relentless and I wish our good friends Kathy & Stu well. California shut down but many parts of USA have not taken this seriously with people being skeptical. I'm afraid this will get ugly but hoping that we can stay ahead of it. We are at the very early stages on this side of the pond and anticipate this to peak May/June!! I hope that I'm wrong and like people are talking that we can blunt that curve but the rise in cases is starting to escalate. You are the math teacher with 1-6% death rate how many will be taken out. The worlwide numbers being reported are probably underestimated 10fold as only test confirmed cases are being counted. What about third world countries they are not immune. Map shows Russia N Korea with few to no cases...do you believe it?? They anticipate 40-50% of the population to contact the disease and 375000 deaths shouldn't come close unfortunately. Death rate may be striking. Look what is happening in Italy/UK/ etc. Maybe some help with chloroquine/Plaquenil to help save some of the seriously ill if we don't run out. Danielle takes chloroquine and there is a worldwide shortage since the fall and none available in our province...scary. She's forced to start a less efficacious plaquenil unfortunately once her remaining two week supply runs out.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:18 am

We shall see, Danny.
If Canada is so quick to the mark then why is the first family infected?
Lots of stones being thrown at glass houses.
I'm still skeptical that hundreds of thousands or even millions of people are about to die in The U.S.
3500 died in a country 5 times the size of the US.
29 deaths total in NYC is definitely concerning, I hope they can stop things.
But I am still cautiously skeptical that we may be in a global groupthink here.
But I'm sitting here in quarantine, we shall see.
Everthing about Felix's predictions have come true, except one thing... the world has shut down, including the Bordeaux EP...
But we'll see if his prediction of 20-68 million deaths comes to fruition.

dstgolf · Post by **dstgolf** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:00 am

Jim,

PM Trudeau's wife caught the bug while visiting the UK. The majority of cases in Canada/USA have all been related to foreign travel hence the shut down of international travel to stem the tide. We had our first case of community transmission documented this week where there are no ties to anyone in their contact circle with a travel history and that's where the fear lies and all of the precautions of social distancing( never heard this term prior to last two weeks), self quarantine and shutting down all gathering places, sporting events, restaurants etc. comes into play to slow/prevent community spread. Community spread is the huge fear and can get out of control . Canada/USA are where China was last last Nov/Dec ie the beginning. China was able to control their population, force self isolation etc to prevent spread and got the disease under control in in 3-4 mths with relatively little impact. They built what a 10000 bed hospital in 10 days dedicated to cover patients not intermingling that disease in the hospital setting with other uninfected sick patients something our systems will have a very difficult if not impossible job to accomplish. Our populations are certainly much more difficult to convince/control as can be seen with what's happening in many areas with Spring break going full bore on the beaches, bars patrons partying it up potentially promoting spread etc etc. Only time will tell. This has the potential to be an unmitigated disaster and like you I'm hopeful that our systems can quell the tide to bring this under control and be a huge public health success. Unfortunately there will be many that will be upset if there isn't the death in the streets as predicted and everything was overblown and we should've gone to France etc etc but you will have missed how public health measures triumphed or failed depending on the outcome. Plan for the worst and hope for the best. We will get through this I am confident but concerned about the potential harm if measures are not followed or people get fed up and refuse to toe the line for others protection. Only time will tell. SARS in 2002 brought similar concerns early on but got stopped in its tracks and never became a pandemic. Why...no clue but it scared the crap out of everyone. What does SARS-2 have in store don't know. These times are unprecedented and we've never seen anything like this in our lives. Fingers crossed .....

Nicklasss · Post by **Nicklasss** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:04 am

Don't worry Jim. Our first family members are just fine. Trudeau is so bad since that all started that his team make up something like his wife caught the bug. Ah well, business as usual.

Nic

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:12 am

Danny, comments like "the US is slow off the mark" are really insulting.
As a physician in Canada, your comments here early on were skeptical.... some would say slow off the mark.
It is always easy to blame the United States. Sometimes we deserve it. Hard to see that as the case here.
This virus did not originate here. It originated in Asia.
Because governments were "slow off the mark" in China and other parts of Asia, the world is now infected.
We are now dealing with it, like the rest of the world.
I don't see where we are any more "slow off the mark" than the great nation of Canada.
I think everyone... including China, Canada, and everyplace else... has been taken off guard.
I don't think anybody should be preaching here.

"Life goes on and I suggest there are worse problems in the world than corona virus and people need to calm down instead of fear mongering."

dtsgolf, 3/8/20

Your comments on March 8th, just 12 days ago.
I wouldn't be preaching about being "slow off the mark..."

I must side with Alex on his arguments of fake news. The media is causing a mass hysteria and everyone is falling right into the pit. Yes covid-19 is a bug the world has never seen and there is no immunity but it shown to be far less infectious than influenza A. The latter is barely mentioned in the press annually but it killed just over 35k people in 2018-19 in the USA alone. Where was the panic on this or its annual occurrence?? Covid-19 infects all ages but children show few to no symptoms but can pass the disease to others. There is conflicting info regarding its effect on those over 60 but most deaths are sporadically clustered in the 30-50 y/o age group. Yes the bug needs to be taken seriously just like influenza should as well as but the press and general public leave the latter alone. Just like norovirus hitting the press when a cruise ship becomes inflicted it hits all of the press but you never hear about its prevalence at resorts, hospitals, food halls, buffets and just about anywhere people gather. It's not fun having people draining diarrhea and vomiting with many with underlying illnesses succumbing to dehydration and worse...death. Yes the world can be a scary place but it always has been but for the most part the public walks through life without seeing or knowing what is around them until now where you get a bug that is certainly no where a new Ebola with exceedingly high mortality rate but the press has hyped this one beyond reality and everyone needs to calm down. Just like you can't prevent the spread of the flu without a vaccination program this will eventually come under control and the world is not ending as some in the press would like you to believe. Life goes on and I suggest there are worse problems in the world than corona virus and people need to calm down instead of fear mongering. May everyone be safe and exercise caution but don't give up living.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:14 am

Nicola: Stay well. Hopefully you can cross the border by some point this summer and we will pull out some of the good stuff here in Maine!

Claudius2 · Post by **Claudius2** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:28 am

Folks
I have posted research data on COVID-19 on the Trump thread.
Can I point out a few issues:

A). The disease was NOT dealt with in any rational way by China in the first instance. I have included a time line on the Trump thread some time ago. There was deliberate shutting down of any talk about it, including threats and bullying of medical staff, censorship of social media and forced retractions from medical practitioners. Even worse, public CNY events in Wuhan were okayed by the local govt despite having many people eating collectively. It took some time for China to even recognise the existence of the disease and they dismissed it as fake news. Even worse, some conspiracy theorists tried to blame it on germ warfare or the US military. Now THAT is fake news. By the way, the Allied countries did the same during the Spanish Flu. Authorities did not want to listen to anything that may interfere with the war effort. Yeah, thanks. The Spanish flue ended up being more deadly than the war.

B). The Chinese CDC last month found that the death rate among people under 40 is only 0.2%, yet for those 80+, it was 14.8%. That is, 74 times the rate. The gap has however since narrowed a little, but in Italy, the health authorities have admitted that C-19 is an effective death sentence for old people and those with serious pre-existing illnesses. Smoking also adds to the risk factors (as it does with many others).

C). Whilst C-19 is considered one disease, Chinese researchers found that there are TWO versions of the virus, called the L and S type. The L type is more aggressive and that may explain the transmission rates and particularly death rates in some countries or regions. Italy is trying to understand why the death rate is high there, including whether the virus has changed. Time will tell. The same thing happened with the Spanish flu of 1918. The first wave wasn't so deadly, but the second wave hit Europe in Autumn 1918, as troops returned home and transmitted the disease. However, it is almost certain that the second wave was a mutated version of that flu. As such, the death rate was not linear; there were multiple peaks, and the reported death rate was obviously not helped by the hardships of war.

D). I have a close friend who is a PhD in microbiology and works for a pharma company in Italy. I was going to meet him in Lyon and Beaune after Bordeaux though obviously we had to cancel. He points out that the "real" infection and death rate in Italy is considerably higher than what is reported, and the situation sounds a little like what happened in China. As such, I take the reported data from just about everywhere with a grain of salt. In the meantime, the Italian health system (not be mention morgues and crematoriums) are overloaded.

E). Normal surgical masks are not designed for any form of virus and offer limited protection. Viruses are tiny (around 0.3 um) and can penetrate common masks. Further, the C-19 virus has now been found to be active for much longer than previously thought. For example 3-4 hours in air and more than 24 hours on surfaces such as some plastics. Note that numerous medical staff and other hospital and personal care workers contracted the disease wearing surgical masks. If you want to wear a mask, get N-95 types. There has also been a scandal in Indonesia where a factory was "recycling" surgical masks collected from health facilities. It and simply ironing them dry. Yeah great.

At this point, the disease appears be be reasonably under control in China and some SE Asian nations, though it is spiking in Italy and other European nations. I wonder however what is going to happen if it really hits some of the many slums in Asia where there are very densely populated areas, meshed to poor sanitation (or frankly, none at all), poor or non-existent health services, ignorance about the disease and no real way of controlling the disease. There are massive slums in several nations, and the C-19 virus can potentially spread like the Bubonic Plague in them.

Today we have just had the first death in Singapore, being a 75yo with significant pre-existing heart disease.

dstgolf · Post by **dstgolf** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:39 am

Jim,

I'm not pointing fingers or blaming anyone. Right now what we are seeing is how healthcare boils down to instituting and adhering to good public health measures. Simple public typically taken for granted. Clean safe water and food supply. Personal hygiene,handwashing, coughing in your sleeve and distancing from others trump everything that doctors serve up.

The Chinese gov't early on denied the existence of the disease and were upset with the doctor that blew the whistle publicly to alert the world and govt locked him up then he died of the disease. Problem was over a million people or more fled Wuhan to corners around the world taking the disease with them before all of the public health no travel, stay at home etc was instituted by their govt. We now are all suffering the effects from that and other mistakes made along the way.

My comments along the way have been trying to keep people informed as knowledge grew about the disease and what needs to be done, precautions to take etc. We are all in this together and on this continent we are all playing in the same box. The virus knows no borders and everyone needs to work together and it is happening. The medical profession has come up to speed very quickly on this on both sides of the border. The implementation and enforcement of the public health measures though has been variable from state to state and Province to province. Here Quebec was the first off the mark with their Premier initiating measures that he was initially criticized for and now everyone is praising him for being ahead of the curve.

Some of my opinions have changed over these weeks but but not my intention to keep people informed. The worldwide situation has changed and we've all become more informed. Information is power and we need to share it so that we can all be safe. Sorry for the soapbox but if there was a message earlier from Felix was that if the west doesn't take the experience of the east seriously then this is going to get worse fast may come to roost. I hope we have all been quick enough in our response and don't get overwhelmed. With 3000 new cases quoted in New York yesterday alone that should tell you there is an issue. Death rates here may now be blunted with early access to an excellent healthcare system and developing treatments in a non overloaded system is key in keeping the death rate down.Maybe we have also learned from the Chinese and French that the very ill respond to chloroquine and other drugs are being trialed so this may also decrease the death rate along with public awareness to seek earlier help. When this was starting to be reported in Dec there was /is NO immunity or treatment and things are changing on the treatment front as long as there is capacity in our systems to handle the flow of patients. That's where public health measures are key and need to be followed. If we didn't pull the plug when we did for our trip in the final hour and the timing was a little different it could have been a disaster for all of us right now.....timing is everything. As Claudius says the bug has already seen one mutation so far and where will it go from here we just don't know. The third world may be in trouble if this goes sideways etc..... but what I do know is BWE is the best Bordeaux site and has some of the greatest people in the world and we all need to be safe, keep informed even if our knowledgeable changes and to raise a glass or two again when the dust settles. Time to sleep if I can. Sad we're not in a different time where I'd wake up getting off the plane in the morning heading to the Mercure but that won't happen. Quite sad and sorry if I've come off wrong mon Amis...not my intention at all.

felixp21 · Post by **felixp21** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:48 am

oh, sorry, but there is too much utter shite being spoken here to ignore. I'll not bother commenting on Claudius' garbage, not worth the effort. But DST, are you honestly a doctor? I'm beginning to doubt that. If you are, must be easy to get into med school in Canada. I'll just answer one of your quite idiotic comments, the "whistleblower" as he is portrayed, was NOT locked up, ok? He resumed his duties, right next to my brother-in-law, and continued to work until he fell ill (as did my brother in law) Very sadly, he died caring for his patients, which is not that surprising as he was diabetic.

I've truly had enough of this, it is genuinely hard to believe what is being written, but then again, the keyboard warrior is king these days.

Perhaps we stick to wine, recommence some civility, and stop making comments about matters we know nothing about.

dstgolf · Post by **dstgolf** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:23 am

Felix,

The whistleblower is what was written in our press saying he was arrested when he blew the whistle when he was 100% right and if they were wrong in their reporting then....but the end result was and I think you also concurred that before containment measures were in place many people left Wuhan to other parts of the world which compounded the problem of global spread. Is this wrong as well or does it really matter at this time! The message at this time is to slow down the disease with good public health measures of which many people are ignoring and has been key in containing the disease ,not all of the fancy tools that we have available to us as Drs because if too many flood in our direction then we're useless for all but a few.

Felix in our country Drs learn from and help one another as a team pooling expertise which is happening quickly and I guess where you are from it may be different. There is no need to be insulting as over the years I have enjoyed teaching others and learning from many in a respectful manner. I've never in my life met a respected doctor that threw insults at a colleague especially one they've never met that may have a few more grey hairs than you and you question whether I'm a physician. You my friend have certainly not presented yourself in a very professional manner here. As Jim said before I am confidant that we will come through better off and more prepared for the next time but we are fighting this thing together regardless of which horse you are riding. There is a role for disseminating information on this board other than wine talk and it has been done successfully for 20 yrs in a respectful manner and that is why we've been around for 20 yrs. We can agree to disagree here and many will just put a little water in their wine to get along understanding that no one is perfect. but a lot of great information is exchanged even if it may not be reported as 100% accurate and I am happy to be corrected when wrong but don't appreciate being insulted. .

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:59 pm

Jim, global groupthink is a good thing as it will likely reduce the number of deaths dramatically. I can’t accurately predict how many. Even the experts will disagree by an order of magnitude or more. Still, they agree that social distancing and shuttering of non-essential businesses will save a lot of people. A hundred thousand? A few hundred thousand? A million? Millions? Of course we’ll never really know but a lot of smart people who make it their life's work studying this are telling us it will be more than a few tens of thousands that will die if we say screw it, business as usual.

The widespread lack of testing, the widespread shortages of PPE, and the coming localized shortages of hospital beds and ventilators in the US will mean people will get sick and die unnecessarily no matter what we do at this point. The US was slow off the mark with respect to these items. We could have ramped up months ago when the warnings from the medical and epidemiology experts was clear. We did not. Due to the incompetence of President Trump. He has blood on his hands.

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:12 pm

I've just detected another case of TDS !!!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:14 pm

My point David is that nobody should be holier than thou in all of this.
All of Felix’s predictions have come true, except, so far, the death rates.
Hopefully, obviously, he is very wrong about that.
I’m the first to blame the US when it deserves it, but I’m not going to do so here, even against Herr Trump.
I love you guys like brothers. But I’m not jumping on the US on this one.
I see a lot of people stepping up, including politicians like Cuomo and other governors.
The heroes in crises are often those at the state and local levels, the governors and mayors, etc.
And of course the front line health care people, they are saints.
Let’s see what the days ahead bring.

Nicklasss · Post by **Nicklasss** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:45 pm

Nobodies right or wrong in their reaction, even the different country leaders. I guess it is very difficult to take any decisions when a very unknown new things like that happens, even if you have many health experts. Imagine if ever some aliens visit us or a way worst virus find us!

Take it to the other extreme: would that has been ok if any country, at the first few cases in China, to get all tourist people out, bring back their citizens in, and close all borders and planes... etc for 2 years? Maybe this will be the plan next time with Covid-20?

At the end, please don't blame me if later this year, I go to Maine and take the risk to go see a guy that nominated a Saint-Émilion as BWE WOTY. He is so contaminated with the merlot virus, that I would not be surprised that he would try to contaminate me with a 1995 Pétrus... But I'll bring a nice Grand-Puy Lacoste to protect myself.

Nic

Tom In DC · Post by **Tom In DC** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:10 pm

Exactly, Nic - if we had had multiple "end of Raiders of the Lost Ark"-sized warehouses full of aging ventilators and expiring N95 masks and an investigative reporter had found them there would have been hell to pay about all the wasted money.