The 2019 Bordeaux futures are starting....

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Tue May 26, 2020 3:33 pm

Lanessan and Beaumont both released ex negotiant at around 9 euros. Will be around $165 here, unless there are still tariffs around when released.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue May 26, 2020 9:52 pm

So that's pretty low, no?
That's about $13.75 per bottle for Lanessan.
It's been going in the upper teens in recent years, no?

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Wed May 27, 2020 11:08 am

I was trying to get an answer whether it is up or down. I think it is probably down, and the chatter suggests that the wines will have to be priced very attractively to stimulate any kind of sales.

If so, this will be the first “great” vintage worth buying as a future since the 1980s. There have been others worth buying notably 2008, and to a lesser extent 2014, but good as both were, from all the chatter, the 2019 may be something special. I will go after my usual suspects, magnums of Figeac, VCC, Pichon Lalande and Ducru.

marcs · Post by **marcs** » Wed May 27, 2020 2:15 pm

I stopped with 2016 and don't plan to restart. It's about age, I have like 7 to 8 cases of the 14-15-16 trio and that should keep me until I am 70 or older. Also a lot of 40-50 year wines from 2000, 2005, 2010.

jckba · Post by **jckba** » Wed May 27, 2020 4:18 pm

All I know is that it is going to suck if these tariffs ruin an otherwise well priced vintage.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Wed May 27, 2020 4:40 pm

jckba wrote:All I know is that it is going to suck if these tariffs ruin an otherwise well priced vintage.

Yeah. 2019s are slated for attractive pricing plus tariffs, I guess. If Haut Bailly is saying that 19 is on par with 09, then it’s something to think about 19 vintage assuming it’s generally the case across the board...

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Wed May 27, 2020 5:06 pm

I heard someone being interviewed on NPR last night recommending that tariffs be temporarily suspended to help jumpstart the economy, ie. get consumers consuming again.
Former or current chief of Goldman Sachs maybe, or a similar financial institution, I think.

brodway · Post by **brodway** » Thu May 28, 2020 12:56 am

Just as i was getting a hit list of 2018's together the 2019 vintage is here....decisions

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu May 28, 2020 1:02 am

Are tariffs still related to ABV on red wines or has that changed?
How much leeway do they get WRT accuracy in Bordeaux? +/- 0.5%? 1%?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu May 28, 2020 1:18 am

How much will tariffs based on ABV be an issue in the 2019 vintage?

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Thu May 28, 2020 12:24 pm

Pontet Canet is out. Priced very well, around $75, if there are no tariffs.

You have a year and a half, hopefully by then the tariffs will be gone.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu May 28, 2020 12:41 pm

Nice! Might be able to put a first growth or two in the cellar.

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Thu May 28, 2020 1:07 pm

My bet, Jim
The FGs have enough money so they are not worried about cash flow.

The release will be tiny, and they will keep the rest back for when times improve. That first tranche price will sell out immediately and be bought by insiders, and then resold at a small discount to the 2018s.

brodway · Post by **brodway** » Thu May 28, 2020 1:15 pm

Is any outfit in the US offering first tranch pricing?

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Thu May 28, 2020 3:33 pm

Are you talking FGs? Or wines in short supply such as Lafleur?

If you buy a huge amount from a retailer, he might extend special pricing. For all the wines with a fair amount of production, you will probably be getting first tranche pricing.

brodway · Post by **brodway** » Thu May 28, 2020 8:52 pm

Wine Ex offering Pontet Canet at $79.25

Rarely buy small production names but would consider La Conseillante if pricing is reasonable.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Thu May 28, 2020 10:06 pm

What are the initial impressions of 2019 barrel sample tastings, though? Left bank vintage, right bank vintage, etc.?

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Fri May 29, 2020 3:38 am

Are the 2019 EP offerings coming with an asterisk that says tariffs, if any, to be paid by consumer?

dhp · Post by **dhp** » Fri May 29, 2020 3:52 am

So if one were to weigh counterparty risk, previously I had mostly thought about retailers. However, given how well retailers are doing, I would think it's the distributors/importers who are more likely to go out of business, given the loss of restaurant sales?

JCNorthway · Post by **JCNorthway** » Fri May 29, 2020 11:44 am

Regarding tariffs, what I have seen is that they will be paid by the customer based on prevailing tariffs at the time wines are brought into the country. So we have 2 years to get that resolved.

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Fri May 29, 2020 1:40 pm

I just bought some half bottles of Pontet Canet; it seems to be a decent play, given

a. There are no good halves out there close to this price
b. They will mature more quickly in the half bottle.

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Fri May 29, 2020 2:09 pm

Funny I just saw an offer for 12x375 PC and am very tempted.

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Sat May 30, 2020 12:24 am

dhp wrote:So if one were to weigh counterparty risk, previously I had mostly thought about retailers. However, given how well retailers are doing, I would think it's the distributors/importers who are more likely to go out of business, given the loss of restaurant sales?

in theory, if a middlemen goes bk, the store still owes you the wine. but that may not matter. calvert woodley famously sandbagged lots of customers when a ship sank, carrying a vintage.

my feel is that this entire transaction just has everything wrong with it - if it made sense to buy EP and the wines are hard to find upon arrival, that's when stores start saying 'it broke in the warehouse etc'. giant places like TW pulling that even. and its not easy for a small time consumer to fight that, claims court, suits etc. and then if its just a garden variety overextended business (not even PC fraud) a hard recession is when they get shaken out, and decide paying rent is more important that paying the invoices. maybe best case one gets a sheepish call 2 years later asking if you will accept X $ in whatever they have in stock (that they could not sell) instead of what you ordered (see the ridiculous scam thread on WB if you want to see what I mean).

its a mugs game.

I just got back from my local costco. lots of wine being sold cheap there. i was surprised, it was much richer target environment than normal. that might be a better channel than normal for the next year or two, if you have any access to one. some states let you purchase liquor/pharma without membership, although most don't know that. or a costco gift card gets access.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat May 30, 2020 12:44 am

Was 2000 the last vintage when futures made any general sense (there’s always exceptions)? Or did even those basically arrive on the shelf at futures pricing? I recall getting a few deals on 2000 en futuro, but pretty much only on those wines which Parker subsequently rated notably higher in a second round of barrel scores and/or an in-bottle scores.

There were some great deals in 2002, and to a lesser degree, 2008, but you could get these on the shelf at more or less futures pricing for everything except First Growths.

dstgolf · Post by **dstgolf** » Sat May 30, 2020 12:54 pm

FYI

https://www.winespectator.com/articles/ ... f-pandemic

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Sat May 30, 2020 3:15 pm

I can’t help feeling 30% off will throw off the market so badly that it will cause problems with existing stock held by negotiants. Imagine having bought Pontet 2018, and then finding how cheap 2019 is by comparison. Negotiants are already hurting,
this would certainly put a few out of business.

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Sat May 30, 2020 3:16 pm

2008 was the last vintage buying futures made sense. Doubled my money on some of the wines.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat May 30, 2020 3:51 pm

Arv, not to diminish the risk associated with futures, but Calvert Woodley didn’t go bankrupt when they lost that shipment at sea. Possibly a less severe stress test than what is coming. I seem to recall they returned people’s money. An argument for sticking to reputable players with long track records if you are going to take the risk. Unless my recollection is wrong. Did consumers end up with no money and no wine?

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Sat May 30, 2020 4:27 pm

DavidG wrote:Arv, not to diminish the risk associated with futures, but Calvert Woodley didn’t go bankrupt when they lost that shipment at sea. Possibly a less severe stress test than what is coming. I seem to recall they returned people’s money. An argument for sticking to reputable players with long track records if you are going to take the risk. Unless my recollection is wrong. Did consumers end up with no money and no wine?

C-W could have gone out to the market, and at great expense, purchased what they owed and delivered it. But instead they subbed in other stuff (with customer agreement) or refunded people. But it basically defeats the whole point. This was a solvent business that walked away from a contractual like obligation, with basically few repercussions. That's the core of my problem with 'futures'. Everything about the 'bargain' is tilted against the consumer.

If the wine gets gets 89 pts, and it turns out you don't really want 10 cases of the Ch. Hoity Toity, the consumer doesn't get to pull 'give me my money back, I changed my mind'. But when it gets 99 pts, is when the consumers prepaid purchase turns out to be chock full holes, and some business manager will be taking a lifetime expected value of the customer approach (i.e. is it worth it to honor the promise?) rather than what the customer assume a head of time - that all the paid for obligations would be honored.

I use C-W as a historical example of this problem but every firm has that risk (of getting shorted by middlemen) they're nothing unusual as far as I know.

============

Totally separate, some years ago I read a business mgmt book about pricing methodology/strategies. I forgot the name but the thrust of the book was that more businesses should be trying to figure out the true elasticity of their customers when it came to goods/service pricing. That would help them the figure out the optimal/profit maximizing levels. Of course, unless you're Amazon this is is not as easy to do it as it sounds. Coupons, different sales channels, contracts that forbid releasing terms etc. are all some attempts to get at this. But the book also pointed out that for some goods, this can be counterproductive, and that full on dynamic prices just means customers stop checking, and begin substituting. An example might be that a menu which has Lobster on it, and a price tag of "market price - inquire" may be tolerable. If the hamburger on the same menu is quoted the same way...the customer might leave, or never return.

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Sat May 30, 2020 5:24 pm

>>
2008 was the last vintage buying futures made sense. Doubled my money on some of the wines.
>>

Mark, did you buy futures as an investment? I thought you were a compulsive buyer like the rest of us and sold only to make room to buy more.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat May 30, 2020 6:01 pm

Thanks, Arv, for the details. I agree with you regarding risk. It was worth it to me in the past when it was almost certain that most of the wines I wanted could be purchased EP at a significant discount to on-arrival prices. The risk of a retailer going bankrupt or playing games with the order was pretty low if you knew who you were dealing with. But not zero, as the PC debacle reminds us.

Over the last decade or so, the discount has disappeared and the likelihood of running into a less scrupulous retailer seems to have increased. I still trust places like MacArthurs and even Calvert-Woodley not to play games with the orders in the absence of extraordinary and unusual circumstances like a ship going down. Even if you pretend to ignore the COVID economic shock, which is extraordinary and unusual, unless you want something rare that isn’t available on release or you are speculating on a score- or popularity spike-driven price increase prior to arrival, EP purchases are not logical.

Ianjaig · Post by **Ianjaig** » Sun May 31, 2020 9:59 pm

Musigny 151 wrote:Pontet Canet is out. Priced very well, around $75, if there are no tariffs.

Funny, have just received an email offering this at the exact same price ($NZ) + landing fees.

Ch. Pontet Canet 2019 Pauillac
1st payment $129.00 est 2nd payment $36.16
A very tight, compact red that shows wonderful precision and definition with lots of blackberries, blueberries, stones and black tea. The sorting and de-stemming was all done by hand. Love the sensibility to this. Superb length and finesse. Subtle and sophisticated. No pumping over and gentle pushing down. Handmade. Very exciting and thought-provoking. Very long. 35% in amphora and the rest in 50% new oak and 15% one-year oak. 65% cabernet sauvignon and 30% merlot, the rest cabernet franc and petit verdot. Biodynamic grapes.
98-99/100 James Suckling

On the vintage, the key headlines as stated in email were:

- Great white wines, there are big things being said already about these.
- Potentially great right bank reds the Merlot has performed exceptionally well – one caveat watch the alcohols. They appear to have caught the New world disease on ripeness.
- Highly perfumed Cabernets, possibly lacking the structure of 2016 and 2018, but for us this could well be a positive as we no longer have the patience to wait 25 years.
- Tiny vintage for Sauternes due to late onset of botrytis

Nicklasss · Post by **Nicklasss** » Sun May 31, 2020 11:08 pm

I tempted. Like other BWEers: i have lot of wisdom, but no will!

Looking forward to see what will be offer here, at what price.

Nic

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:56 am

2019 Palmer has just come out. The Bordelais are serious; again a 30% Reduction. £1000 a six pack, roughly $2500 for a case of 12.

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:45 pm

Palmer pricing

Vintage GBP per 6
2000 GBP 1,535
2005 GBP 1,300
2010 GBP 1,285
2015 GBP 1,210
2016 GBP 1,270
2018 GBP 1,445
2019 GBP 999

marcs · Post by **marcs** » Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:56 pm

Palmer's radical step of reducing prices to $200 / bottle. I think I'll pass LOL

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:59 pm

Yeah that Palmer price is a little disappointing, I was hoping that we’d see 2004-like pricing of first growths for under $200, but that’s not gonna happen.

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:27 pm

It sold out almost immediately. At $200, it is not inexpensive, but then Palmer could be seen as a cut price First Growth, and I was happy to buy some. The days of inexpensive Palmer are long gone, and $200 will probably look cheap in a few years.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:33 am

JimHow wrote:Yeah that Palmer price is a little disappointing, I was hoping that we’d see 2004-like pricing of first growths for under $200, but that’s not gonna happen.

Me too. Sigh.

brodway · Post by **brodway** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:52 am

The 2000 Palmer is brilliant....my favorite wine of the night at the BWE 2000 event in NYC ...If the 2019 is as good or better i don't think the $200 price tag is somewhat reasonable....if i had charted Musigny's pricing yearly en primeur pricing history of Palmer looks like a very bearish chart...would have thought the trend is higher...interesting