The 2019 en primeur campaign begins haltingly

brodway · Post by **brodway** » Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:38 am

The low(er) alcohol levels would suggest more interesting and complex wines and less in your face fruit bombs. I prefer this style and may skip 2017 and 2018 vintages moving right towards 2019. Great early notes here.

Dandersson · Post by **Dandersson** » Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:03 am

Just a couple of thoughts, I know you know much more about this than I do so maybe you can explain this. When we are talking about 2019, prices are going down and it is the end of over priced Bordeaux.
1. As mentioned before what happens to all the 17/18 that are rejected, 17 coming out now just slightly under 16 who will buy? Who will suffer? who will fall? And what will eventually be the price of these wines?
2. In other treads we are talking about auctions, where all the "rich" people are buying the wines over what you are wanting to pay.

I am just confused with the aspect of it is going to be the downfall of high prices meanwhile you can't get good deals on auctions because too many rich people wants the wine?

Thank you!

Best, Dan

Dandersson · Post by **Dandersson** » Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:07 am

Cantemerle 2019 for $26, so a bit down.

brodway · Post by **brodway** » Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:47 pm

Dan...

i think the market will dictate which direction prices will move in....will also depend on consumer confidence in continuing to generate income and wealth...right now the stock market has recovered a good portion of its losses so people may feel more inclined to spend their disposable income on wine...hence prices may not fall that sharply....depending on how quickly global economies recover, so will move the pricing of Bordeaux futures and auction prices as you've noted above. in addition, as restaurants and fine dining establishments begin to reopen, so will the demand for Bordeaux. in my opinion it will all be news sensitive and pricing will follow, as always, supply and demand dynamics.

in 2008-2010 period prices were quite soft as there was much uncertainty in the health of the US economy and the survival of many companies was in question. wine was not on the focus of most folks. i've scored a few auction steals on 2005 Bordeaux in large formats at that time. i don't think this time around its the same financial meltdown we saw a decade ago and prices may soften a bit, but i can't see 2019 being off more than 10% or so off recent futures pricing unless the pandemic takes a turn for the worse.

as far as back vintages those may soften to allow consumers to digest the inventory that is out there. i personally don't foresee a crash of any sort, but a softening.

Disclaimer....I'm no expert

Dandersson · Post by **Dandersson** » Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:28 pm

Broadway, Yes this is kind of what I feel, slow movement down in price. I noticed that alcohol was one of the stocking up items when the Covid pandemic started so some businesses like TW, sold out on nearly everything for a number of weeks, they stopped having deals, now they are coming back with deals again.
For now I am sticking with buying small amounts of my favorites and those that I want to try, when I am okay with the price. Slow and steady that way should minimize regretting a lot of purchases down the road.

Best, Dan

brodway · Post by **brodway** » Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:34 pm

When Cantemerle is trading at $26 a bottle, i don't think wines of this quality will trade lower.....the value/deals will be in the tertiary names and not necessarily in the trophy status labels.

sdr · Post by **sdr** » Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:13 pm

Dan may be wondering why ‘19 futures are coming out at a discount while at the same time auction prices are skyrocketing, at least for some items.

That’s because for the most part they have two different audiences. Futures and new releases are available in quantity and cover a wide variety of the price and rarity spectrum. Therefore, they are sensitive to world wide economic conditions. Merchants have large stocks they need to move, so prices need to be attractive to a wide spectrum of buyers, not just the super-rich. Auctions in contrast usually feature small lots of older bottles, some of which are very rare and not available anywhere at retail, certainly not in the US at least. Since there is minimal or no competition from alternative sources, the hammer price depends only on how badly the one person in the world who really wants it is willing to pay, regardless if it is “reasonable.”

Collectors like me who already have plenty of wine sometimes overpay at auction for rarities, often single bottles they (I) am curious about just for the experience. I don’t want to lay down anything for the future and haven’t bought a case of any one wine in decades. I want my collection to shrink, not grow. PS: that ain’t happening yet

.

I too am wondering who will buy the ‘17s at retail, especially if the ‘19s are cheaper.

Stu

Dandersson · Post by **Dandersson** » Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:26 pm

sdr wrote:Dan may be wondering why ‘19 futures are coming out at a discount while at the same time auction prices are skyrocketing, at least for some items.

That’s because for the most part they have two different audiences. Futures and new releases are available in quantity and cover a wide variety of the price and rarity spectrum. Therefore, they are sensitive to world wide economic conditions. Merchants have large stocks they need to move, so prices need to be attractive to a wide spectrum of buyers, not just the super-rich. Auctions in contrast usually feature small lots of older bottles, some of which are very rare and not available anywhere at retail, certainly not in the US at least. Since there is minimal or no competition from alternative sources, the hammer price depends only on how badly the one person in the world who really wants it is willing to pay, regardless if it is “reasonable.”

Collectors like me who already have plenty of wine sometimes overpay at auction for rarities, often single bottles they (I) am curious about just for the experience. I don’t want to lay down anything for the future and haven’t bought a case of any one wine in decades. I want my collection to shrink, not grow. PS: that ain’t happening yet .

I too am wondering who will buy the ‘17s at retail, especially if the ‘19s are cheaper.

Stu

Okay that makes a lot of sense. So, I shall in general not mix in auctions prices when thinking about the market prices, because they are mainly very rare wines. Makes sense. Yes, I am probably going to buy one bottle or maybe two of the 17s, just to try the estates that I follow and are cheap.
Well having a large cellar has it's problems, I guess you have to start drinking more than you buy. Hard work, but you have to do it.

Thank you Stu!
Best, Dan

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:11 pm

Château Tour Saint Christophe 2019
St-Emilion Grand Cru
96 - 97 JS / 94-96 Jeff Leve

£276 per 12 bts IB
£291 per 6 mags IB

80% Merlot & 20% Cabernet Franc.

Tour Saint Christophe sits between Troplong Mondot and Tertre Roteboeuf.

To produce the wine of Tour Saint Christophe, a lot of work takes place, as the wine is made using micro vinification - the grapes are whole berry fermented. On average, 50% of the wine is vinified using micro vinification, meaning that half the wine is vinified in 60% new French oak barrels. Malolactic fermentation takes place in barrel. The wine is then aged in 60% new French oak barrels for an average of 18 months before bottling.

This is tight with finesse and focus. Minerally and salty with an ultra-fine palate and polished tannins. It goes on and on and on. Strength and finesse at the same time. 80% merlot and 20% cabernet franc.
96-97 Points, James Suckling

94-96 Points, Jeff Leve, WineCellarInsider.com

I paid £180 for my case of 2015

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Thu Jun 04, 2020 5:17 pm

I think TsC was deliberately underpricing their wine for the last couple of years, relative to what they could have charged. Now they are letting it float up to its value, esp relative to their location, quality, peers etc.

And as noted above, prices look tough for anyone stuck with 17's on their shelves.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:27 pm

I think TsC was deliberately underpricing their wine for the last couple of years, relative to what they could have charged. Now they are letting it float up to its value, esp relative to their location, quality, peers etc.

That indeed has been the case, AKR. Jeff Leve has spoken multiple times about TsC "building its brand."
I was at a wine tasting class with Howard Kwok at Harvard last year, I can't say enough good things about the family running this property.
They are perfectionists, passionate, willing to invest whatever it takes in their properties.
Their properties have been reasonably priced and I hope their realize the fruits of their labors.
Massive disappointment not being able to visit Tour Saint Christophe and Belfont-Belcier this past March.

greatbxfreak · Post by **greatbxfreak** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 6:21 am

TStC 2019 is an excellent wine, best ever produced imho, but I gave it 94p.

There are better wines in Saint-Emilion than it, but if it comes en primeur at price f.i Cantemerle + even 50%, then it's a steal for the money.

Hope to put some more Tns on my website by Sunday.

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:38 am

Lafite released this morning at £2556 per 6 ib, 15% below the 2018 release. The 2016 trades at £3k per 6

greatbxfreak · Post by **greatbxfreak** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:53 am

On Danish website I can see they offer Tour St. Christophe 2019 at app. 28 Euros all included. Same price as Cantemerle.

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:15 am

Comte Flaneur wrote:Lafite released this morning at £2556 per 6 ib, 15% below the 2018 release. The 2016 trades at £3k per 6

Still too much, the upper limit of revenue while looking supportive. They will of course have no problem selling through.

brodway · Post by **brodway** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:18 am

GreatBxFreak

K&L offers the Tour St. Christophe at $29.99 per bottle which is fair for the quality

brodway · Post by **brodway** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:23 am

Wine Exchange offer the 2019 Tour St. Christophe at $28.98

brodway · Post by **brodway** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:30 am

Malescot being offered at $41 seems reasonable....i think my initial reaction of seeing 10-15% reduction in prices may have underestimated market conditions. I have not bought Malescot since the 2000 vintage but think paid something close to this price....so 20 years of pricing eroded in one year....Who said Bordeaux is expensive?

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:33 am

Lafite and other Rothschild wines have come out:

Retail price per bottle excluding VAT, as well as transport and duty:

Lafite : 475 euros
Carruades: 175 euros
Duhart Milon: 58 euros
Evangile: 162 euros

Alex R.

brodway · Post by **brodway** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:42 am

Fleur Cardinale $33.89.....for me the jury is still out on this wine, as i've had good and underwhelming experience with it, but for the quality its extremely reasonable pricing...

Claudius2 · Post by **Claudius2** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:44 pm

Brodway
Yes agree with that but I’m putting 19 EP in the too hard basket for now. I’m just not prepared to buy any EP stock given the crazy state of the market - and the economy per se.

greatbxfreak · Post by **greatbxfreak** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:52 pm

I gave 2019 Fleur Cardinale 94+p and for me it's far better than their 2018. It was made in their new cellar with some new things during vinification.

Haven't tasted Lafite and company - didn't get any response on having asked for samples. Only Ch. Margaux from 1. Growths were extremely kind but Latour and Haut Brion made clear from the start that no samples were being sent.

jal · Post by **jal** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 5:59 pm

Is anyone on the board buying 2019 Bordeaux Futures? If so, why? What is the rationale?

Just asking...

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:21 pm

I'm passing, but I suppose there are some people who just have to purchase wine out of habit.

Maybe if someone doesn't care about the risks, and is new to collecting, these prices may appear attractive esp if they have seen nothing but escalating prices over the last few years.

I think the deals will be better on landed, physical wine already stuck in retail supply chain.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:27 pm

I will wait until they hit the shelves in New Hampshire in a couple years, and then I'll buy like one bottle each of my favorites, and see if I can't get a first growth or two, although I won't buy Lafite at that price. My last vintage of any major purchases is 2016.

Dandersson · Post by **Dandersson** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 10:17 pm

I will likely pick up some Pauillac, but will wait until we know more about the vintage.

brodway · Post by **brodway** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:22 pm

Jacques...

the reason i would be buying is

1) i did not buy any 2018, 2017, 7 or so cases of 2016, less than 2 cases of 2015, none 2014, and nothing since 2010
so most of my Bordeaux is from 1996 to 2005 vintages which will be ready soon. need to think ahead...what do i drink 20 years from now?

2) prices are lower than those offered in the last few years

3) lower alcohol levels are appealing to me as i don't enjoy big fruit bombs masking high alcohol levels and seem disjointed more often than not

4) i'm a few years younger and praying for good health can drink up for another 20-25 years

5) i can finally afford some names that i avoided over last 20 years because the pricing left me at the previous bus stop....L'Evangile and possibly other right bank low production names which i happen to enjoy

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:30 pm

none 2014

NONE from 2014, Emil?!
That is like an ultimate broadway vintage, classic Bordeaux at some of the best prices in the millenium.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:41 pm

I might buy some 2019 EP, but only after tasting. I will buy EP because I need split bottle formats of growth properties that I am interested in. Non-growth properties should be a pass as they should be available on shelf for about the same EP prices....

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:16 am

jal wrote:Is anyone on the board buying 2019 Bordeaux Futures? If so, why? What is the rationale?

Just asking...

Yes I am buying a few. I bought a double magnum of Pontet Canet for my new great niece born in 2019. I bought half bottles of the same for me, because it is almost impossible to find good halves without paying a fortune.

I also bought Palmer in magnums. This was purely a value purchase. No great or even good Palmer is available close to $200 a bottle. I love the style, I trust them to come out with great wine even if I cannot taste it. And finally, Palmer in magnum is the sexiest bottle on the planet.

I plan on buying VCC. of course. Then a small amount of Ducru Figeac and Pichon, but I emphasize only if they are at a significant discount to 2018.

brodway · Post by **brodway** » Sat Jun 06, 2020 4:51 am

General Howe...

promise to immediately remedy the lack of 2014 Bordeaux problem....unfortunately was not blessed with the NH pricing around these parts

brodway · Post by **brodway** » Sat Jun 06, 2020 4:54 am

also bought Palmer in magnums. This was purely a value purchase. No great or even good Palmer is available close to $200 a bottle. I love the style, I trust them to come out with great wine even if I cannot taste it.

This i totally agree with....love Palmer and been priced out of it for long time...

brodway · Post by **brodway** » Sat Jun 06, 2020 4:56 am

Musigny...

still holding on to the 98 Figeac...plan on popping that case soon....i believe you mentioned years ago it was a wine you were fond of

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:55 pm

brodway wrote:Musigny...

still holding on to the 98 Figeac...plan on popping that case soon....i believe you mentioned years ago it was a wine you were fond of

Yes. I had a bottle recently, and it was stunning. Beautiful to drink now, it will still evolve, and I suspect will stay lovely for three or four decades.

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Sat Jun 06, 2020 9:46 pm

I have been sitting patiently on some 98 Figeac - it is all about the future for this wine.

Mark do you have any recent experience or thoughts on the 2001?

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Sat Jun 06, 2020 9:52 pm

Nothing recent.
Last time was more than ten years ago; very good then, and probably close to be worth trying now.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Jun 06, 2020 9:58 pm

We had a 1998 Figeac at a DC convention in the past few years. Stunning.

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:21 pm

Current list from Flickinger. Not a recommendation one way or the other, but a list.

2019
12x750ML
Ch. Bellefont Belcier
St. Emilion
$458.00
JS 95-96
2019
6x750ML
Ch. Bellefont Belcier
St. Emilion
$232.00
JS 95-96
2019
6x750ML
Carruades de Lafite
Pauillac
$1,145.00
JS 95-96 / WA 92-94
2019
12x750ML
Domaine de Chevalier
Pessac Leognan
$646.00
JS 96-97
2019
6x750ML
Domaine de Chevalier
Pessac Leognan
$325.00
JS 96-97
2019
3x750ML
Domaine de Chevalier
Pessac Leognan
$165.00
JS 96-97
2019
12x750ML
Ch. Cos d'Estournel
St. Estephe
$1,836.00
JS 98-99 / WA 97-99
2019
6x750ML
Ch. Cos d'Estournel
St. Estephe
$918.00
JS 98-99 / WA 97-99
2019
3x750ML
Ch. Cos d'Estournel
St. Estephe
$459.00
JS 98-99 / WA 97-99
2019
12x750ML
Ch. Dauzac
Margaux
$404.00
JS 94-95
2019
12x750ML
Ch. Duhart Milon
Pauillac
$775.00
JS 95-96 / WA 92-94
2019
6x750ML
Ch. Duhart Milon
Pauillac
$391.00
JS 95-96 / WA 92-94
2019
6x750ML
Ch. L' Evangile
Pomerol
$1,069.00
JS 97-98 / WA 96-98
2019
3x750ML
Ch. L' Evangile
Pomerol
$539.00
JS 97-98 / WA 96-98
2019
12x750ML
Ch. La Fleur Cardinale
St. Emilion
$395.00
JS 95-96
2019
6x750ML
Ch. La Fleur Cardinale
St. Emilion
$199.00
JS 95-96
2019
6x750ML
Ch. Lafite Rothschild
Pauillac
$3,095.00
JS 99-100 / WA 97-99
2019
3x750ML
Ch. Lafite Rothschild
Pauillac
$1,550.00
JS 99-100 / WA 97-99
2019
12x750ML
Ch. Lynch-Moussas
Pauillac
$380.00
2019
12x750ML
Ch. Malescot St. Exupery
Margaux
$489.00
2019
6x750ML
Ch. Malescot St. Exupery
Margaux
$247.00
2019
12x750ML
Les Pagodes des Cos
St. Estephe
$504.00
JS 95-96 / WA 92-94
2019
6x750ML
Les Pagodes des Cos
St. Estephe
$252.00
JS 95-96 / WA 92-94
2019
12x750ML
Alter Ego de Palmer
Margaux
$719.00
2019
6x750ML
Alter Ego de Palmer
Margaux
$362.00
2019
6x750ML
Ch. Palmer*
Margaux
$1,249.00
2019
3x750ML
Ch. Palmer*
Margaux
$629.00
2019
12x750ML
Ch. Pedesclaux
Pauillac
$399.00
2019
6x750ML
Ch. Pedesclaux
Pauillac
$209.00
2019
12x750ML
Ch. Pontet Canet*
Pauillac
$925.00
JS 98-99 / WA 98-100
2019
6x750ML
Ch. Pontet Canet*
Pauillac
$470.00
JS 98-99 / WA 98-100
2019
3x750ML
Ch. Pontet Canet*
Pauillac
$239.00
JS 98-99 / WA 98-100
2019
12x750ML
Ch. Tour Saint-Christophe
St. Emilion
$319.00
JS 96-97
2019
6x750ML
Ch. Tour Saint-Christophe
St. Emilion
$163.00
JS 96-97
2019
6x750ML
Ch. Trotte Vieille
St. Emilion
$395.00
JS 96-97
2019
3x750ML
Ch. Trotte Vieille
St. Emilion
$199.00
JS 96-97
2019
6x750ML
Ch. Valandraud
St. Emilion
$717.00
JS 97-98

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:36 pm

Some attractive prices there, Mark. If I expected to live to be 100 I might be a buyer.

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:29 pm

I did buy the only two where the price proved irresistible, Palmer and Pontet Canet. If I liked the style more, the Domaine de Chevalier is very well priced.

Given the current situation, I am disappointed by the pricing of Cos, Evangile and Lafite.