The 2019 en primeur campaign begins haltingly

Dandersson · Post by **Dandersson** » Sun Jun 07, 2020 10:21 pm

At this point Duhart and PC would be what I would do, but I will wait for more of them to come out (d'Armailhac, Clerc Milon, GPL, LB, GL) and potentially more people to taste them. I doubt PB or Lynch will fit into my budget.

Ianjaig · Post by **Ianjaig** » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:29 am

Dandersson wrote:At this point Duhart and PC would be what I would do, but I will wait for more of them to come out (d'Armailhac, Clerc Milon, GPL, LB, GL) and potentially more people to taste them. I doubt PB or Lynch will fit into my budget.

Duhart has just been priced at $102 NZ (or $66 US) over here. I'm tempted to pull the trigger...

Dandersson · Post by **Dandersson** » Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:13 pm

Ianjaig wrote:
Dandersson wrote:At this point Duhart and PC would be what I would do, but I will wait for more of them to come out (d'Armailhac, Clerc Milon, GPL, LB, GL) and potentially more people to taste them. I doubt PB or Lynch will fit into my budget.
Duhart has just been priced at $102 NZ (or $66 US) over here. I'm tempted to pull the trigger...

Yes, it is $68 for Duhart where I would order. I am tempted, but will wait to see where the others end up. Can probably not fit them all into my budget. But with prices this low compared to what one needs to pay for 15 and 16, I will have to buy some.

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:40 pm

Quite a few releases today including Cheval Blanc at 32% below the 2018 release price here in the UK.

Branaire got released at a good price, less so Beychevelle

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:05 pm

I don’t need it, but agree, Branaire is a bit of a steal. Pity about Beychevelle

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:02 pm

Here are some prices that came out today in France (French retail market)

Retail, ex cellars, per bottle, before tax

Château La Tour Carnet 2019
23.52 €

Château La Tour Figeac 2019
28.00 € HT
Château Angélus 2019
266.00 €

Château Cheval Blanc 2019
420.00 €

Château Lafaurie-Peyraguey 2019
40.00 €

Château Léoville Poyferré 2019
57.40 €

Château Beychevelle 2019
61.60 €

Château Gazin 2019
58.80 €

Château Branaire-Ducru 2019
32.90 €

Best regards,
Alex R.

greatbxfreak · Post by **greatbxfreak** » Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:19 pm

BWE's darling and also one of my favourite wines, Corbin, came out at 23.80 € HT

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:13 am

Mouton Rothschild
332.00 euros

Clerc Milon
57.00 euros

d’Armailhac
34.00 euros

AR

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:33 am

2019 pricing...
Eh, I'm not impressed.
Nothing that is going to make me jump out of my skin to purchase in quantity.
I'll stick with 2016 as my "last vintage."
Oh, sure, I'll buy some Tour St. Christophe at $28, etc., etc., but I'm not counting on seeing Baron or GL or Ducru at attractive pricing.
I see Lafite is $535 or some such price.... Gross.
2014 was priced better, no?

brodway · Post by **brodway** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:15 am

Leoville Poyferre isn't unreasonable at $68...it rarely disappoints

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:56 am

I piled into Lynch Bages which is released at £790 here per 12, a 26% reduction on the 2018 release. I bought 12 x 375 and 12 x 750

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:57 am

: 47D1C904-F933-41DF-BEDA-B517027F5F60.jpeg (21.99 KiB) Viewed 2700 times

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:48 pm

That looks like some of those pandemic charts I see

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 6:20 pm

While that curve shows an association between scores and prices, it's also true that 8 out of 13 vintages are far enough off the curve to show that scores alone are a poor predictor of prices.

brodway · Post by **brodway** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 6:34 pm

Love it...technical analysis for wine purchasing decisions

jal · Post by **jal** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:27 pm

Nice Ian,

My big problem with 2019 is the credibility of the scores. Too few people have tasted the wines, and even then, not in the best of conditions.

What do I know, though? I am no longer enjoying young Bordeaux and would not have bought anyway.

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:18 pm

David

Coming from a wine merchant that level of - possibly spurious - technical analysis made me smile. Credit to the merchant and rewarded him with a purchase for his ingenuity, so take it as somewhat tongue in cheek rather than scientific.

Jacques

While Powell has for now quashed talk of negative rates, and it did not come up today, I have decided to start buying (IG) wine now (explicitly for investment), because cash is trash. The core CPI is deflating at a 3m annualised rate of 2 1/2% - you tend will get some deflation first before the ultimate push into inflation. I bought four different lots of Lynch Bages today, because good sources suggest this could be the best ever Lynch, and I have other targets. Cash is trash. And there is zero tolerance for asset price deflation. The last one I speculated on was Figeac 2016 and I am still flat, but am not too worried about prices collapsing because enough money will end up getting printed.

jal · Post by **jal** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:26 pm

Bordeaux as deflation hedge! At least the assets in our case are pretty liquid

I have heard that with negative interest rates and in order not to pay the banks to keep your money, some European taxpayers were overpaying and prepaying their taxes. When they got their refund it was in full including the overpayment.

I understand the European tax authorities have now closed that loophole. Glad Powell and Bernanke before him disliked negative interest rates, claiming they create huge distortions in the economy.

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:01 am

More:

Retail price in euros, ex cellars, per bottle, exclusive of VAT

Haut Brion rouge: 330.00
Haub Brion blanc: 630.00
La Mission Haut Brion rouge: 210.00
La Mission Haub Brion blanc; 505.00
Quintus: 77.00
Clos Fourtet: 77.00
Poujeaux: 19.60
Calon Ségur: 72.80

AR

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 4:00 pm

I noticed this in bold red on one of the emails hawking futures yesterday

PLEASE NOTE: 2019 prices do not include any applicable US tariffs. The US Trade Representative is currently applying a temporary 25% tariff to wines imported from France below 14% ABV. It is uncertain if any tariff will be applicable when the 2019 Bordeaux are ready for shipment in 2021/2022. But by purchasing the wine on futures you, the buyer, will be responsible for any tariff when the wine is imported.

I have no idea how to handicap what the odds are of the tarriffs really being imposed; I suppose they are associated with DJT getting reelected (which seems like a low probability right now). But if the purpose of paying today to lock in the price on delivery....that uncertainty seems to quite defeat the purpose of buying now. I would not consider a 25% price differential to be a rounding error like the changes in sales tax application or stuff like that which sometimes catches EP purchasers off guard.

So my main observation is that the prices seen from the US look attractive but people don't seem to be accounting for this risk.

Ianjaig · Post by **Ianjaig** » Fri Jun 12, 2020 1:44 am

I've just taken the plunge and put my name down for some Lynch Bages.

My fingers are getting twitchy and I've got the feeling I'm going to go big on the 19s as A) by all accounts it sounds like a great vintage (somewhere between the 18s and 15s is what I'm reading?) B) I'm 47 so have time on my side, with some of these opening up just in time for my retirement and C) the prices seem decent in comparison with other years.

Others that I'm sure to add once released will be GPL; Saint Pierre' La Lagune & Dom Chevalier.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:34 am

Well done, Ianjaig. Very well done indeed.

robert goulet · Post by **robert goulet** » Sat Jun 13, 2020 10:09 am

Had '01 cos sometime back
..killer stuff

Had the '04 a few yrs later...dumb as a box of rocks

'96 a couple yrs ago slayed...wonderful juice

dhp · Post by **dhp** » Sat Jun 13, 2020 7:44 pm

I ended up buying 6x Lynch Bages@$86 and 3x Pontet Canet@80.

Given storage costs here in NYC, I'm not convinced I'm making an optimal decison. But sometimes, you just gotta say f it and pull the trigger.

Ianjaig · Post by **Ianjaig** » Sat Jun 13, 2020 9:56 pm

dhp wrote:I ended up buying 6x Lynch Bages@$86 and 3x Pontet Canet@80.

Given storage costs here in NYC, I'm not convinced I'm making an optimal decison. But sometimes, you just gotta say f it and pull the trigger.

Nice one. You're prices are a tad more favourable than over here. I paid just over a $90 US for the Lynch Bages (or $142 NZ).

I'm also thinking of following up the LB with some Pontet Canet which is going for a similar price.

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:12 pm

If you guys can afford it, you might want to buy a bottle of Palmer. I can’t believe we will see a wine from a good to great vintage at this price again.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:48 pm

If I were 10 years younger I’d be in for a case of Palmer and Lynch Bages and 6 of Mouton.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:01 am

If I were 10 years younger I’d be in for a case of Palmer and Lynch Bages and 6 of Mouton.

David... Davey....

I know you can do it....

Nicklasss · Post by **Nicklasss** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:47 am

DavidG wrote:If I were 10 years younger I’d be in for a case of Palmer and Lynch Bages and 6 of Mouton.

Ok David. We understand. So you have our blessing for 6 Palmer, 6 Lynch Bages and 3 Mouton.

Nic

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:41 pm

David, if I were ten years younger, I would also be in for a case of Palmer and Lynch Bages and 6 of Mouton.

Come to think of it, you ARE ten years younger than I. Hmmm.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:55 pm

The BWE enablement devils are after me!
I will remain strong!

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:36 pm

So so far I have been out of control, I bought:

Pontet Canet, 1 x 12 x 375
Lynch Bages, 2 x 12 X 375, 1 x 6 x 750, 1 x 12 x 750 - the method in my madness is that my sixth sense tells me it will be the spiritual successor to the 1989 ...”son of” ... the next generation with the magic ‘#9’ leitmotif that will inherit that Holy Grail.
Conseillante 1 x 12 x 375
Figeac 1 x 12 x 375
D’Issan 1 x 12 x 375
Leoville Barton 1x 12 x 375
Clinet 1 x 6 x 750

...and the fat lady ain’t started singing yet...

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:19 pm

Great, Ian! You provide inspiration to all BWEers.

Side question: Why so many 375s?

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:36 pm

stefan - re 375s two reasons - and as per M151’s logic: 1. Early accessibility - I would love to see a scientific study into how much more quickly they will age and 2. 375 formats are very rare. For example if I wanted to buy Pichon Baron 2019 it would cost me £1190 for 12 ex taxes: for £10 more I can get them in halves. The price for the 2016 vintage in bottles is £1230 at Farr Vintners - so the 2019, wonderful as I am sure it is, is an easy pass - but the 2016 in halves is £1320, a 7%+ premium on 750ml bottles, so that premium has gone up from less than 1% en primeur to more than 7%.

Though note I did buy some 750s of Lynch for future BWE events.

Ianjaig · Post by **Ianjaig** » Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:54 pm

Nice one, Comte Flaneur.

Not sure about elsewhere, but the 19s are selling fast over here. Went to put my name down for some Pontet Canet only to be told its sold out. Looking elsewhere, the “sold out” signs are up for PC across the board.

Aside from the Lynch Bages, I have just managed to secure some Phelan Segur, Saint Pierre, Domaine Chev & GPL. Also managed to convince my preferred retailer to bring in some La Lagune. At NZ$54 (or $35 US) that seems like a steal.

Thanks for the Palmer suggestion, Musigny151 - I am tempted.
Ian.

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:02 pm

Ian La Lagune for 54 kiwi is a steal you are right%! Fill your boots!

La Lagune is high on my hit list - I can get it for £145/6 ex taxes - the pound sterling is not worth much these days

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:20 pm

Quote without comment:

"I made La Lagune very famous. It’s actually an excellent wine; an important wine,” stefan tRump argued, “but nobody ever drank it.”

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:29 pm

Yes a legendary moment when on 20 May 2015 at 1045am Maylis de Labordiere stepped aside and the room fell silent as the Maestrolaguna gave us a masterclass of the history of the last half century of this hallowed BWE estate.

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:04 pm

I love how the Bordelais can say a region with 20 gajillion bottles produced is 'sold out' two years before they are bottled.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Jun 18, 2020 11:21 pm

Yes a legendary moment when on 20 May 2015 at 1045am Maylis de Labordiere stepped aside and the room fell silent as the Maestrolaguna gave us a masterclass of the history of the last half century of this hallowed BWE estate.

It was one of the epic moments in the history of BWE.