Champagne producers facing sales collapse

[Claudius2]

I’ve been reading that producers in This famous region have experience a massive fall in demand. Whilst other areas have been affected the story in Reims and Epernay is that the houses cannot clear their warehouses yet don’t want a fire sale that will seriously affect future prices and profitability.

A few growers including Selosse were interviewed and argued that the region is facing the worst crisis in memory as the supply chains are overloaded with stock that they can’t sell and the growers are in a state of panic with harvest approaching.

It may be that some growers will simply not bother picking the grapes but whatever happens there are no easy solutions. The main angle here (Channel News Asia) was that the big houses were pushing for significantly lower production levels which will create real problems for growers.

Has anyone in Europe or America heard this?

[Comte Flaneur]

Yes quite a topic of discussion here in Blighty Mark

No Wimbledon, no Lords, no Ascot, no weddings, hardly surprising really ... not so applicable to still wines

When I was in Reims three weeks ago I bought quite a few lovely bottles around the 25 euro mark.

I think over the next few months there will be plenty more bargains and champagne may became the house white....

[DavidG]

They could make hand sanitizer.

[marcs]

I think the big houses will just sit on inventory rather than cut prices, at least for consumers. Be a marketing disaster that would echo for years to sell big name NV at $20 or vintage at $50-75.

[AKR]

Perhaps they can ask mall based retailers whether taking some brand hit now is better than filing BK later.

Lord & Taylor filed this morn. So did Men's Wearhouse.

[Winona Chief]

I’ve been doing my best to support the Champagne producers - drinking more Champagne than ever this year. It’s the one thing that improves my mood in these trying times.

Chris Bublitz

[JimHow]

You inspired me, Winona, I am sipping some champagne here on the back deck as the sun begins to set....

[DavidG]

Sitting on inventory is an option only if you have room in the cellar. Some seem to have unlimited caves. Others, ???

[JimHow]

Man, sitting on inventory, for what?
I imagine you gotta move this stuff.
When has Champagne or any other wine region sat on its inventory, unless you are talking about like what Latour or Gillette do.

[stefan]

If the Champagne producers can sit on stacks of Champagne, they have way too much money for me to feel sorry for them.

I will happily buy a lot of Champagne when the price goes down by 50%. Well, I already buy a lot of Champagne, but I will buy a lot more when prices decrease substantially.

[JCNorthway]

I will happily buy a lot of Champagne when the price goes down by 50%

I am right behind you, Stefan.

[DavidG]

I will happily buy a lot of Champagne when the price goes down by 50%

I am right behind you, Stefan.

Me too.

[Claudius2]

David et al
I agree - the idea of sitting on inventory is not a realistic option for most producers, who tend to have full cellars, chais and warehouses at the best of times.
The demand side of the equation has shifted to the left, thus a new point of equilibrium arises - in simple terms, they either cut prices (and I mean by a lot) or reduce production.
And historically, Champagne has been relatively price inelastic as it is associated with the sort of events and celebrations Ian mentioned earlier.

The CNA article over here argued that the houses are going to have an awful fight with the growers as they will not want to take in the same volume of grapes, yet the growers will have no rational alternative.
According to Forbes, sales are down up to 70% (the data is a bit fuzzy however):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexledsom ... dea1586934

I DO have a marketing idea. Imagine if you can now get Salon, Krug, Cristal, Dom Perignon etc hand sanitizer.....
Actually I feel rather sick thinking about it.

French farmers including grape growers are NOT renowned to be the most co-operative people in the world, so I really think that there will be a lot of blood on the floor.
But Forbes and CNA are arguing that the CIVC will be looking to cut production, and this will get ugly.

In the meantime, I am checking the prices at local resellers for good deals.
So we can only do our part and stock up on our favourite Champagnes.
But guys, please don't expect 50% price cuts. That would just destroy their brands and make it very hard to go back to normal pricing levels any time soon.
And I am happy to pay E25 a bottle for decant NV any day of the week.

[marcs]

Sitting on inventory is THE way champagne has gotten where it is today and it is no question what they will do. Sit on inventory or destroy it ("hand sanitizer"). I can't believe how naive you guys are, you seem to believe price is not already manipulated in the Champagne market of all places. They will certainly not let prices drop too much. They are getting too low for a supposed luxury product anyway.

Many agricultural producers destroy product rather than let prices drop. In the case of wine you don't have to destroy it because it keeps.

[AKR]

Perhaps another option, if cutting prices on existing marques is unpalatable, is to quickly develop a value offering, which absorbs the surplus, and can be sold quickly.

Out west the last couple of recessions led to Two Buck Chuck, Cameron Hughes etc. to soak up excess bulk wine, and that helped some growers/vintners avoid the more extreme measures like rubbing alcohol or plowing crops under etc.

Unemployment is at Great Depression era like numbers and firms that think everything is business as usual, no changes needed here no thank you, are risking letting a trustee sort out their affairs.

[DavidG]

Marcus, we know that the Champagne houses control pricing by controlling supply. The question is whether current circumstances exceed their capacity for continuing to do so by increasing the amount they hold back in their cellars.

As much as I’d like to see them, I don’t really expect to see 50% reductions in têtes de cuvée. Smaller reductions might be seen for those, and larger ones for the NV bottlings.

[Claudius2]

Guys
I have personally done numerous consulting projects for Aust wine producers and Aust govt authorities such as the AWRI and Dept of Trade and that has included modeling price elasticity in several markets and developing competitive strategy.
Whilst the houses have considerable market power and the grands Marques operate as a cartel, the Covid-19 disaster has forced most industries to change. At least they have considerable brand equity.
If the grapes, base wine or finished wine is sold off for other purposes - hand sanitizer, bio fuels or whatever, it is worth very little. It would probably be more economical to just leave the grapes to wither on the vines. And that happens in the Aust bulk producing areas more often than anyone will admit.
The CIVC is clearly setting an agenda and they know that the market will not buy the same volume at the same price. I suspect that part of their strategy will be to gain support for govt bailout or similar. Secondly it may take some years to fully recover. For example the IATA is now saying that global travel will be down for at least 4 yrs. Not the same market but a mass collapse of travel, hospitality and events will hold back demand.

Hoarding tens of millions of cases of champagne is not a simple task and the storage facilities in the industry are rarely empty. I would argue that if we are talking about a single year collapse it would be possible but that is not what the industry is facing and the industry is largely aware of it.

Reducing production is virtually certain but the independent growers and small houses will face financial disaster if purchases by the big houses falls. The bulk sale options are not a solution in any rational way. One option is to sell the grapes or unfinished wine to supermarkets as house brands but again that is at low prices and will affect medium term pricing. That happens every day in Australia as over production is dumped as clean skins and shop brands.

[Musigny 151]

Marcus, we know that the Champagne houses control pricing by controlling supply. The question is whether current circumstances exceed their capacity for continuing to do so by increasing the amount they hold back in their cellars.

As much as I’d like to see them, I don’t really expect to see 50% reductions in têtes de cuvée. Smaller reductions might be seen for those, and larger ones for the NV bottlings.

I would just like to see Taittinger Comtes 2008 come out at the same price

[marcs]

2008 Taittinger Comtes coming out at $195 in the US, finally closing the pricing gap with other top tetes de cuvée. Really ambitious to jack your prices 50+% at a time like this and supports my belief that you will not see price cuts in response to lower demand

[AKR]

The bulk sale options are not a solution in any rational way. One option is to sell the grapes or unfinished wine to supermarkets as house brands but again that is at low prices and will affect medium term pricing. That happens every day in Australia as over production is dumped as clean skins and shop brands.

I don't see this as some kind of major systemic problem. Every commodity producer has been always at the whim of circumstances outside their control, no difference between the coal miner, sugar beet farmer, or oil roughneck. Let prices find their new market clearing levels, and let the old delusions go. (Like sparkling wine is an asset to save and husband in warehouses, as it accrues value like a zero coupon bond)

[DavidG]

Marcus, we know that the Champagne houses control pricing by controlling supply. The question is whether current circumstances exceed their capacity for continuing to do so by increasing the amount they hold back in their cellars.

As much as I’d like to see them, I don’t really expect to see 50% reductions in têtes de cuvée. Smaller reductions might be seen for those, and larger ones for the NV bottlings.

I would just like to see Taittinger Comtes 2008 come out at the same price

A big AMEN to that! I'm out at $190.

[Claudius2]

Arv
If the problem facing Champagne was only a one-off (or one vintage) problem, I'd agree with you, but in this case, it is going to take longer.
Many industries including travel, tourism, hospitality, entertainment, food service and bricks and mortar retail are going to face longer term problems and are already restructuring to enable survival.
At least in service industries, you don't have any "inventory" in physical goods.

Assuming a one-off hit, the the industry can process the same volume of grapes, hoard excess stock somewhere, and hopefully increase marketing and distribution to clear out backloads when the market improves next near.
I seriously don't see that as an option if it takes more than one year. And I am saying that the CIVC is already talking about a medium term problem.

The airline and travel industry as an example know they are in for a longer term challenge and are now talking about four down years (IATA). At least they can just park the planes at terminals, though that in itself is costly.
The industry is facing significant medium term rationalisation meaning that staffing and other costs have to be cut. Some will be bailed out by govts but that can't go on forever.
I cannot say with any certainty how long the Champagne growers will take a hit, but if will almost certainly be at least a few years and that will create enormous pressure on all players in the chain.
The big houses will survive but there are a lot of smaller growers who sell to them, and they won't have the ability to last long if the houses reduce contract purchases.

If there is opportunity it will not be found in doing the same things they do every year.
The houses will have to be more creative now. For example, new product development, targeting market niches, new distribution channels or re-positioning Champagne as an everyday drink (which is risky however).

One last point.
I joked about having Krug, Salon, Cristal etc hand sanitizer.
The local news here features a story that some people are getting sick from drinking it. Ugh.
So I think my tongue in cheek idea is problematic. May just have to leave it as Dettol or Listerine.

[Claudius2]

Guys
A few minutes after posting the above note, I got a big Champagne offer including Cristal from one of the local wine merchants.
Prices were not really any better than their normal offer prices.
Couldn't see any hand sanitizer though......

[tim]

Whereas still wine has quite a bit of inventory in the US, I suspect that NV Champagne was more of a just-in-time business. Which means that the 25% Trump tariff is probably killing their US business. I look at Champagne prices in the US right now, and they are pretty high. Combine that with the effects of Covid, and it is destroying their business.

[DavidG]

I thought the tariffs didn’t apply to Champagne or wine >14% ABV.

[Claudius2]

DavidG
That was my impression - I know 100% tariffs on Champagne, cheese etc have been thrown around, but I am pretty sure sparking wine has avoided it.

[DavidG]

Yes, the 100% tariffs threatened for the digital services dispute would likely include Champagne, but haven’t been implemented. If those do kick in, I won’t be buying any wine affected by them. Could be a real sucker punch for futures already purchased.

The 25% tariffs that are currently in effect as part of the Airbus dispute don’t include Champagne.

[Nicklasss]

I’ve been doing my best to support the Champagne producers - drinking more Champagne than ever this year. It’s the one thing that improves my mood in these trying times.

Chris Bublitz

Same here. I drank more Champagne in the last two months than in the last two years.
I still have a Deutz cuvée William Deutz left for enjoyement. 100 % pinot noir from Aý. Delicious.

Nic

[AKR]

Arv
If the problem facing Champagne was only a one-off (or one vintage) problem, I'd agree with you, but in this case, it is going to take longer.
Many industries including travel, tourism, hospitality, entertainment, food service and bricks and mortar retail are going to face longer term problems and are already restructuring to enable survival.
At least in service industries, you don't have any "inventory" in physical goods.

Assuming a one-off hit, the the industry can process the same volume of grapes, hoard excess stock somewhere, and hopefully increase marketing and distribution to clear out backloads when the market improves next near.
I seriously don't see that as an option if it takes more than one year. And I am saying that the CIVC is already talking about a medium term problem.

The airline and travel industry as an example know they are in for a longer term challenge and are now talking about four down years (IATA). At least they can just park the planes at terminals, though that in itself is costly.
The industry is facing significant medium term rationalisation meaning that staffing and other costs have to be cut. Some will be bailed out by govts but that can't go on forever.
I cannot say with any certainty how long the Champagne growers will take a hit, but if will almost certainly be at least a few years and that will create enormous pressure on all players in the chain.
The big houses will survive but there are a lot of smaller growers who sell to them, and they won't have the ability to last long if the houses reduce contract purchases.

If there is opportunity it will not be found in doing the same things they do every year.
The houses will have to be more creative now. For example, new product development, targeting market niches, new distribution channels or re-positioning Champagne as an everyday drink (which is risky however).

One last point.
I joked about having Krug, Salon, Cristal etc hand sanitizer.
The local news here features a story that some people are getting sick from drinking it. Ugh.
So I think my tongue in cheek idea is problematic. May just have to leave it as Dettol or Listerine.

Some of the domestic US sparkling producers have started rebate programs (via PayPal) in my market. $4 back on bottles of Mumm California. That gets the effective prices down to $13ish I think, which is pretty low for good functional stuff. Normally I'd be skeptical of any consumer rebate programs (they're usually just scams) but this retailers one pretty much works as intended - bill is scanned automatically at POS - payment via PayPal a few days later.

Still I have not gotten any, since I've got enough sparkling for now, and consumption is down in any case as all the birthday parties have been cancelled.

Champagne is going to have to figure out to deal with this competitive local threat though.

I'm not very sympathetic to the producers - these are all non essential products that have confused themselves into thinking they were making antibiotics etc.

[Tom In DC]

I have a feeling that the lack of social occasions, particularly the reduction in dine-in restaurant meals but as mentioned above no weddings, birthday parties, etc., has had more effect on Champagne sales than US tariffs.

[Comte Flaneur]

Agreed Tom, that is the killer

Chassagne Montrachet (Blanc), generally a superior tipple, should hold up better

[Claudius2]

Guys
I have a feeling the Champenois are going to have to get creative rather than rest on laurels.
Not entirely sure that the base wine can easily be applied to still wine. Maybe Chablis like Chardonnay but not sure is the ON and PM has many uses.

Ian
I hardly ever See CM here other than the wine I import myself.
One weird characteristic of Singaporeans is that red wine is seen as “better” by most consumers and the more expensive whites (I man more than supermarket wines) tend to be bought mainly by expats.

[AKR]

I watched the Martine Saunier 'A Year in Champagne' documentary last night. It was ok, not as good as 'A Year in Burgundy'.

I suspect the region is going to struggle....for years. They are positioned so much the wrong way on every megatrend reversal that has happened in 2020.

The visual tours of the cellars was interesting; there seems to be a lot of wine already underneath the area. Maybe I'm misremembering but they said 600 miles of cellars?

Maybe in the short run, some discounting within Europe to keep cash flow for priorities, and in the longer run they rebalance their supply to market demand. That may be easier for the houses that don't own their own vineyards as they can let go the their least favorite growers.

[marcs]

They probably have a lot of room to cut prices on institutional sales rather than destroy their brand by cutting consumer prices. E.g. unload a ton of stuff at cost or for a small markup to be served on high end cruises or in first class on airlines, which might even help their brand without ever showing a low price tag to the public. There are so many options before consumer price cuts I just don’t see that ever happening. They are already starting to lag behind the prices for true luxury wines. NV offerings for the big luxe houses are already priced where a nice new small production natural wine would be, and tetes de cuvée prices are falling behind grand cru Burgundy. That’s before any cuts

[AKR]

A lot of their options for blowing out stock are gone now - no BTG programs at big national steakhouses, no FC lounges, no cruises, no weddings/parties etc.

[Claudius2]

Guys
I think that the biggest losers will be the small growers.
The grands Marques will either lessen purchases of grapes or else find new channels for their products.
A few options I can think of would be:
Selling base wines to supermarket brands for still wines
Creating lower priced brands for selling over online retailers at lower price points
Selling excess base wine for distillation (which would be a low price route)
Repositioning Champagne as a daily drink rather than a special occasion and celebratory wine
Actually making the wine, holding it somewhere and then massively promoting it thru more channels when things get back to normal.

While the weakness of their existing market positioning is now obvious, it is that positioning that has enabled the Champagnois to sell millions of cases at relatively high prices. Whatever they do they will need to ensure that they hold onto the celebratory image of Champagne. They have a relatively unique brand image and that differentiation needs to be valued.