NM Blind tasting of the 2016 vintage

[RPCV]

Nice article in Vinous by Neal Martin on the 2016's. He has an interesting writing style and his taste in Bordeaux really matches mine, so I'm a fan.

[William P]

https://vinous.com/articles/southwold-2 ... d-aug-2020

[JimHow]

Thanks gents, interesting article.
I'm still buying 2016s, from all appellations....

[William P]

Thanks gents, interesting article.
I'm still buying 2016s, from all appellations....

I think that's a wise decision. I suspect in 10 years we'll look back and say, damn 2014, 2015, and 2016, what a stretch.

[William P]

The below link is another view of Southwold which is the tasting put on by Farr Brothers and attended by NM. It contains much of the same views, just by a different person.

https://www.farrvintners.com/blog.php?blog=270

[Nicklasss]

Very nice article, thanks for sharing. Yes we'll drink and talk the 2016 for a long time.

Someone secured some Lynch Bages for Jim? I didn't for 2016, but did it for the 2019.

My only deception about the article, not a word on the two Pichon.

Nic

[jckba]

... but a big plug for GPL and I always enjoy NM’s notes / impressions.

[Comte Flaneur]

Nic the Farr Vintners article mentions the Pichons in a positive light. Same message as before: you need to own six packs of both Pichons, Lynch and GPL. I own both Pichons so am half way there.

I don’t think these articles add anything we didn’t already really know apart from some interesting recommendations on lesser producers from NM, which may be worth exploring.

But without access to his scores it does not really add a lot. Apart from the final confirmation of what we have already concluded: that 2016 is a flawless vintage, which sets a new benchmark.

I do like Neal though. He is unassuming, a straight shooter and has a good and reliable palate.

[RPCV]

Thanks gents, interesting article.
I'm still buying 2016s, from all appellations....

I think that's a wise decision. I suspect in 10 years we'll look back and say, damn 2014, 2015, and 2016, what a stretch.

I agree, and dare I say that 2014-2018 is the best five year run ever for red Bordeaux!

[JimHow]

When they go on sale again in NH (next month?) I'm going to buy three bottles each of 2016 GPL and La Conseillante, as well as fill up on Corbin, Lilian Ladouys, and all the other usual suspects....

[Gerry M.]

Very nice article, thanks for sharing. Yes we'll drink and talk the 2016 for a long time.

Someone secured some Lynch Bages for Jim? I didn't for 2016, but did it for the 2019.

My only deception about the article, not a word on the two Pichon.

Nic

The absence of any mention of PB or PLL left me scratching my head also, PLL especially.

[stefan]

This quote illustrates how much Bordeaux has changed:

>>
even the second label of Croizet-Bages has something to offer
>>

My old picture of Croizet-Bages has the caption "Croizet-Bages has nothing to offer".

[Claudius2]

Thanks for posting the article.
Interesting that in the northern Medoc, he describes 2014 as “stellar” and I have picked up a few more of these this year as the QPR makes sense.

[JimHow]

I wholeheartedly agree that 2014 is stellar, especially in the northern Medoc but also consistently on both sides of the river.
And it sounds like I lucked out in getting a case of 2016 Meyney from Zachy's on futures for $27 per bottle!

[Musigny 151]

I like the 2014s I have seen from Pomerol. I’m addition to VCC, which I have a love affair with, L’Eglise Clinet. Trotanoy and Conseillante

[Blanquito]

Given our recent discussions about modern wine making in Bordeaux, I found this passage very interesting (and telling) [my emphasis added]:

"A trend that now borders on dogma is for contemporary Bordeaux to cater – or, some might pejoratively contend, to kowtow – to consumers no longer predisposed to cellar wines over many years until they reach their drinking plateaus. Various techniques enable a winemaker to render a newborn wine more approachable than in the past, accentuating the aromatics and softening tannins via gentler and/or shorter extractions. The watchword is “infusion,” to the point where I sometimes wonder whether I am reviewing wine or artisan tea."

Indeed, wine isn't made anymore, it's designed.

[Blanquito]

Yet, despite that, I have somehow ended up with 41 bottles of 2016 Bordeaux. And I thought I had been restrained!
Branaire-Ducru 6 bottles
Cos Estournel 2 bottles
Giscours 6 bottles
Langoa Barton 6 bottles
Lynch Bages 4 bottles
Grand Puy Lacoste 4 bottles
Pichon Baron 7 bottles
Sociando Mallet 6 bottles

[Comte Flaneur]

Patrick the positive spin on ‘infusion’, as in dangling a tea bag, is that it is diametrically opposed to ‘extraction’, as in wringing a wet tea towel.

[marcs]

"Infusion" is indeed the latest buzzword in both Bordeaux and Burgundy. However, I think the engineering of wines goes far beyond a simple shift to lesser extraction, which could be seen as just a return to the traditional "clairet" wines which were less extracted and lighter. What we are seeing is that the wines are simultaneously more "infused" / less extracted, but at the same time just as fruity/intense/"big" -- if not even bigger -- than they were before. How are they doing that? There's a lot going on beneath the surface buzzwords.

[Comte Flaneur]

I don’t think there are any ‘deep state‘/ QAnon conspiracy theories going on here Marcus...I re-refer the Honourable Gentleman to Christian Seely:

http://www.christianseely.com/2012/03/2 ... -aromatic/

[Musigny 151]

I bought the Mouton-Rothschild in 2016. If it wasn’t the finest young Bordeaux I have ever tasted, I cannot think of what is. Utterly profound.

[Comte Flaneur]

I bit the bullet and bought 2016 Mouton too. I also bought 2016 Lafite in recent weeks.

[Blanquito]

Oh I am sure that many wonderful, perhaps historic wines were made in 2016. It really seems like it was the perfect growing season. And some chateau and wine makers are no doubt at the peak of their powers and transcend any kind of earth-bound debates like the traditional vs modern divide.

I don't doubt the potential, just the temptation and the technology to mess with Mother Nature.

[Nicklasss]

Mother Nature rigths are always stronger than any technology.

It is always been the same: to do a great wine, you have to start with great grapes. Knowledge about grapes is better today than anytime in the past i guess. What does that changes? Before, you had to be lucky to do a great wine, and today, you have to be lucky to do a bad wine.

Humans have a tough time accepting changes, even if it is for better. It has always been, and will ever be. Humans like stagnation, no questionning, standing on what they already know and consider it the best for them. Let some time to these 2005-2009-2010-2015-2016-2018-2019, be patient. Of course they can't taste like a 1982, a 1985 or a 1989, that you open in 2020, they are too young. They are a bit like the 1982 : the 1982 were something new ( or not seen since a long time) and most did not had the faith, except a certain Robert Parker... you know the rest.

Nic

[Musigny 151]

I bit the bullet and bought 2016 Mouton too. I also bought 2016 Lafite in recent weeks.

You did good grasshopper. You would have done better to buy another bottle of Mouton instead of the Lafite

[robert goulet]

I wish I could justify buying 1st growths....when I think back over the years, it seems the overwhelming majority of the Bordeaux that I fell in luv with were well below $100.

[Comte Flaneur]

Yes seems like Mouton is at the pinnacle of what has now been confirmed as the best vintage of all time!

My purchases were spurred by my overarching investment thesis, which has been accelerated by Covid. We are already now in a world where central banks are financing governments and I see no way out. Covid just fast forwarded what was unfolding anyway, which is why I have a lot of my assets in gold. Covid could also hasten the demise of cash and lead us into the dangerous territory of negative interest rates. In that sort of environment there will be an increased premium not just for gold but for other valuable assets like Swiss watches...and fine wine... and for ages I have been looking for an excuse to put together a pure wine investment portfolio. I think there is a lot of potential upside for top Bordeaux wines, which are arguably the blue chip investment grade asset in the wine world. So I put together a portfolio for myself and some relatives (nephews)/which is high replicative so that a happy outcome would be to sell some and drink the rest at a discount or for free. The worst case is that I fall on hard times and sell the cases at a loss. The portfolio includes Latour 05 (cheap relative to 09 and 10), Margaux 05, Haut-Brion 09, Mouton 09, Trotanoy 09, Margaux 10, Mouton 10, Lafite 16 and Mouton 16, mostly in six packs.

[Comte Flaneur]

Here is a recent article on this topic by Jean-Louis Gave

How to pay for sin in the future

Just as success has many fathers, there are many possible explanations for the upside breakout in gold prices. Obvious explanations include a rapid rise in monetary aggregates across the OECD, the fall in the US dollar and growing US-China tensions. An overlooked explanation is the demise of physical cash as a liquid and easily transportable asset.
The Covid-19 crisis has led most governments to shovel as much cash out of the door as they can, in as little time as possible. This was done either directly, through an explosion in budget deficits, or by instructing commercial banks to issue government-guaranteed loans on highly uncommercial terms.
It is not a stretch to think that a fair amount of this generously-sprayed money ended up in non-deserving pockets. Corruption, gaming the system and simple greed usually accompany episodes of such largess being dispensed.
So far, so very China in 2008-09. Back then, money that fell into the “wrong pockets” promptly found its way into Macao casinos, Ferrari car dealerships, Hong Kong gold wholesalers, Vancouver and Sydney real estate and high-end Bordeaux wine merchants.


So should we expect a repeat this time around? After all, not only is China’s government spending money like a sailor on shore leave in Wan Chai, so are most OECD governments. And if that currency falls into the wrong pockets, there is surely going to be a surge in gambling (casinos, or the stock market), gold hoarding, money flows into high-end real estate and a surge in the price of Pétrus and Cheval Blanc. And all this may be amplified by the end of cash.
The Covid crisis has acted to accelerate various structural trends that were already unfolding across our societies, whether that be the US-China divorce, a growing monetization of budget deficits by OECD governments or political polarization. In a germaphobe world, where notes and coins are seen as vectors of transmission the demise of cash is another; storekeepers won’t take it and high street bank branches no longer carry it. Many countries are going down the path blazed by Sweden, where cash is now rarely used. My colleagues Xiaoxi Zhang and Wei He recently analyzed the Chinese government’s hopes to replace dirty (and untraceable) cash with a digital alternative (see Questions On The Digital Renminbi). Other governments will follow suit, as a digital currency means less tax evasion, more government control, and an ability to trace the source and destination of all payments. Big data at its best. What is not to love (for governments)?
Yet this begs the question: in a cashless world, how will a property developer pass a brown envelope to the mayor responsible for re-zoning a piece of land? How will the mayor go about supporting his “nieces”? How will the nieces pay for the illicit drugs that make hanging out with the mayor tolerable? In short, will the end of cash mean the end of corruption, prostitution and drug addiction? Five thousand years of recorded human history suggests not, so illicit activities will have to find alternative modes of funding, such as:

Gold: The shiny metal stands out and our crooked mayor will no doubt be perfectly happy to get a bag of Krugerrands over an envelope of cash.

Bitcoins: The initial growth of the cryptocurrency was driven by potheads ordering drugs over the internet. This gave bitcoin the critical mass needed to be a credible currency, so it seems suited to the role.

Casino chips: With the market focused on social distancing due to Covid-19, casinos are out of favor but their chips could play this role.

Luxury goods: Rolex watches, Hermès bags and Pétrus wine have ready currency in China, but elsewhere?

Foreign cash: This must be a currency that still acts as a “currency”.

This is not meant to be an exhaustive list. But suffice to say that as cash becomes obsolete, assets that are prized for their “scarcity value” (rather than an ability to deliver cash-flows over time) should do well. Yet, let’s take the reasoning a step further by considering these effects on the Swedish krona as the country is further down the cashless path than most.
In recent decades the krona has typically traded at SEK8.5-SEK9.5 to the euro. As Sweden is more productive than the average eurozone economy—and with a better financial profile to boot—trading the krona was a breeze. When it moved to SEK9.5 to the euro, you bought it and vice versa. Such moves tended to occur in periods of crisis, probably because Sweden remains an export-driven, cyclical economy. Thus, it paid to buy the krona in the 2001 tech bust, and again in the 2008 mortgage crisis. Yet this rule of thumb started to break down after 2015, for despite no obvious crisis, the krona continued to weaken against the euro.


It may be a coincidence, but this corresponds with the time when Sweden began to become a cashless society. Could it be that krona bank notes no longer grease the wheels of commerce in the Baltics, or Russia? The krona was probably not widely transacted outside of Sweden but as it went cashless, what was probably a small club of black market dealers most likely disappeared, with such activity switching to the euro.
To change pace, what is definitely not a small, exclusive club is the black market in US dollars. It is widely thought that some 90% of dollar bank notes circulate outside of the United States. Now imagine that those notes—like krona ones—gradually become obsolete. They will have to be recycled into other assets; most likely scarcity assets, whose prices would then melt up. The effect would be to make the price of sin ever more expensive. In fact, thinking through the end-of-cash dynamic, it seems obvious that individuals will find it ever more expensive to pay for their sins. That’s the bad news (at least, for the sinners among us). The “good news” is that the end of cash will make it easier for governments to pay for theirs.

[robert goulet]

Do u think a prostitute will accept bitcoin? Asking for a friend

[marcs]

I;m working on a post about wine as an investment that I will probably put up this weekend somewhere, suffice it to say I disagree with some of the above. But the article is right about the general macroeconomic situation. One (non wine related) question I have about alternative stores of value though -- why do people have so much faith in bitcoin? Yes, it is an alternative to sovereign currencies, but it is a fantastically complicated encrypted network that has to operate through the highly centralized internet. If social arrangements really came under pressure it seems like the last place you would want your money.

But I guess if your hypothesis is that the center will hold but things will become more corrupt and inflationary it would be attractive to have something that was an accepted medium of exchange uncorrelated with sovereign currencies

This may be the most extreme thread drift I have seen in a BWE thread LOL

[Blanquito]

I thought we live in a post-inflation world, what with secular stagnation, automated means of production, global pools of labor and capital and materials, etc.?

Post-inflation, I should say, is separate from asset and luxury goods inflation, which I agree will continue to run up as long as the printing presses are in overdrive.

[DavidG]

All this finance talk is over my head. But Ian, you made me feel better about buying 2019 futures. An investment!

[AKR]

Comte - have you read the book SWAG? Fits your thesis

https://www.amazon.com/Swag-Alternative ... 1781485186

[Nicklasss]

My mother sold one of her old ring lately, and she told me she has been impressed how much $ they gave for it (gold), compare to a few years ago.

Nic

[Comte Flaneur]

Arv he was a former colleague of mine - I wrote the chapter on wine, lock stock and barrel - timing was not ideal and it was published soon after the China Lafite bubble burst...so recommendations to ‘buy the dip’ proved premature (!) and therefore you should follow in my footsteps at your own risk!

[AKR]

Arv he was a former colleague of mine - I wrote the chapter on wine - timing was atrocious! It was published soon after the China Lafite bubble burst.

Then forgive me for mansplaining it!

I really don't like the idea of investing in tangibles personally.

I do not find them to be so cheap to 'carry' when theft, insurance, custody & safekeeping are non trivial (and ongoing) expenses.

Some of my tribe are fond of the barbarous relic, of course.

Like crows and shiny baubles.

[JimHow]

It was several years ago now that Jacques prepared a spreadsheet demonstrating my thesis that, other than through mass production, the “most likely” way to turn a million dollars into a billion dollars over a ten year period is to invest and reinvest real estate equity. I.e., the Trump model. Although, I don’t think Jacques himself agrees with that thesis.

[Comte Flaneur]

Yes Arv that is why if you invest it has to be so high end as the storage costs are inconsequential. I was itching to buy La Lagune 2019 for £300ib, but stefan said the 2010 needs a few blanquitos so the math didn’t work.

I think negative interest rates if and when they come will turbo charge SWAG

[jal]

It was several years ago now that Jacques prepared a spreadsheet demonstrating my thesis that, other than through mass production, the “most likely” way to turn a million dollars into a billion dollars over a ten year period is to invest and reinvest real estate equity. I.e., the Trump model. Although, I don’t think Jacques himself agrees with that thesis.

Yup. Too many things have to go right and too many things can go wrong in R.E. Especially considering that there are both high entry/exit fees as well as a liquidity premium.

I used to subscribe in a previous life to GaveKal and read Jean-Louis Gave with great interest. He always thought outside the box.

[AKR]

Yes Arv that is why if you invest it has to be so high end as the storage costs are inconsequential. I was itching to buy La Lagune 2019 for £300ib, but stefan said the 2010 needs a few blanquitos so the math didn’t work.

I think negative interest rates if and when they come will turbo charge SWAG

It seems like the BOE is now admitting that tool is in the box, even as they claim that it will not be deployed yet.

Bad times to be a British bank.