Tarriffs & BDX 19

[AKR]

Seems like there has been some trade war resolutions

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56279525

Not sure how soon/quickly this might ripple through to BDX19 futures pricing, or how quickly merchants will pull their inventory either.

If the tariffs are really gone, 2019 could be the first year in a long time where EP might make some sense.

[Musigny 151]

Just bought 3 magnums of Branaire 2018 for £235. No tariffs, ready to go.

[marcs]

Mark, how do you buy in Europe and get it shipped over here? Curious as I have found it difficult.

Not that I should be buying any more LOL.

[marcs]

Also, re tariffs, I suspect we are going to see a significant downward move in effective Bordeaux prices this year due to lifting the tariffs. Might not be so noticeable as it is coming on top of a big increase over the last year, might look more like price stabilizing or gently declining, but there was a big wedge developing between U.S. and European prices.

[DavidG]

It’s not just Scotch whisky. Looks like a 4-month suspension of all of the EU/US WTO aircraft dispute tariffs while they try to negotiate a settlement:

https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-office ... o-disputes

So yes, Bordeaux as well. If you’ve got stuff in storage in Europe, now would seem the time to bring it in. However, the 2019s are not yet ready to ship. So there is still the potential, should negotiations flounder, that tariffs will be back in effect next year when they are ready for importation.

[tim]

Hmm, I might be able to ship some of my wine stateside now... happy days!

[AKR]

Winex sent me an email this morn claiming the tarriffs are over and that they are bringing over a 1000 cases.

Unsurprisingly, they urged their clients to 'buy, buy, buy'

As I mentioned before, some of the 2019 futures prices esp at the Good Not Great levels look like they're blast from the past prices.

[DavidG]

When it comes to government policy, I’m always hesitant to count my chickens before they’ve hatched. But it sure looks and feels like this 4-month pause is a precursor to a permanent fix.

I ordered 4 cases of 2019s en primeur, a large buy for me especially at my age. I’ll be delighted to see them all come in tariff-free at prices well below prior years'.

[AKR]

You ordered 4 cases this afternoon! wow

[DavidG]

You ordered 4 cases this afternoon! wow

LOL, not today. Back in the spring of 2020, taking a limited calculated risk knowing I could bail on a fair number of them should tariffs still be in effect come 2022.

[Claudius2]

Guys
I will have to pay tax when the 2019 en primeur purchases arrive.
Govt here loves alcohol as all alc drinks get taxed based on the % that in the bottle.
For wine it adds around $8 to $10 and for scotch whisky that is more like $40 to $50.
We get drunk on alcohol the Govt just gets drunk on the tax.
C’est la vie.
Mark

[Racer Chris]

I just made my first Bordeaux Futures purchase. Based on repeal of the tariffs, and decent pricing of the 2019s at Total Wine, I purchased 6 packs of d'Armailhac, Pagodes de Cos, La Dame de Montrose, Langoa Barton, La Croix Ducru-Beaucaillou, and 3 of Talbot.
This will likely also be my last Futures order.