The fact that we're all fully vaccinated substantially reduces the chance that anyone will get COVID during our gathering or traveling to and from DC. The mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) are not as effective against the Delta variant as they are against the original strain. They are still in the 80% effective range - better than a lot of vaccines like influenza most years. But they are not 100% guarantees. With a little luck, Delta will be waning in a few weeks, but there is no way to know.
I've talked to our event planner at Charlie Palmer. They follow DC guidelines, which currently means that the staff will be masked and guests must be masked while walking through common areas of the restaurant (e.g. to the rest rooms). They have no requirement for staff vaccination and are unable to estimate how many of the staff are vaccinated. We will be in our own room in the Alcove, but the air circulates with the rest of the restaurant and there is no way to know the vaccination status of the other diners in the restaurant.
The risk of serious illness is higher for those with other medical problems and those with less robust immune systems. There will be some high-risk people at our Convention. I've attached a NY Times article about risks of breakthrough infections in the vaccinated. It's not the New England Journal of Medicine, but it contains some decent practical information.
What Vaccinated People Need to Know About Breakthrough Infections - The New York.pdf- (107.71 KiB) Downloaded 20 times
Vaccinated people can still transmit the virus, and that can happen during asymptomatic viral shedding. However, most transmission from vaccinated individuals occurs when they are symptomatic. And viral load declines more rapidly in the vaccinated, making them contagious for shorter periods of time. If you develop a fever or start coughing and sneezing after arrival in DC, please don't come to the dinners. Or do a home test to differentiate between allergies and infection (see below). I know that dropping out would be horribly disappointing after making the trip and being so close, but I also know that none of us would want to put our friends at risk.
Masking is one way to reduce risk further. Required while walking through common areas of restaurants in DC. Highly recommended and required on most public transportation. Obviously we won't be masked in the Alcove while eating and drinking. If anyone wants to wear a mask when not eating or drinking during our gatherings, I'd like to put it out there that no one should think less of you or make you feel uncomfortable for doing so. Do what feels right for your situation. We all have different risk profiles and different approaches to dealing with that. As friends we can respect and appreciate those differences.
For those who want to go an extra step, there are home antigen tests like Abbot's BinaxNOW:
https://www.amazon.com/BinaxNOW-COVID-1 ... B094LVQZJL
https://www.walmart.com/ip/BinaxNOW-COV ... /142089281
https://www.cvs.com/shop/abbott-binaxno ... did-550147
https://www.walgreens.com/store/c/binax ... 27-product
I've attached a second NY Times article which describes the capabilities and limitations of these tests.
- Why You Still Might Want to Have a Home Covid Test on Hand - The New York Times.pdf
- (91.93 KiB) Downloaded 24 times
Antigen tests are much less sensitive than PCR tests. However, they can still significantly reduce risk of transmission at large gatherings by alerting people to stay away if their test is positive because that means their viral load is probably high enough to be contagious. There are also home PCR tests, but they are much more expensive and less readily available. PCR is sensitive enough to be positive in some individuals who have been exposed but are not shedding enough virus to be contagious.
Peggy and I plan to do a home antigen test the morning of each of the dinners we’re attending (Friday and Saturday). In the highly unlikely event that we test positive, we'll drop out but will still send along a few bottles.
I'm really looking forward to seeing all of you again!
