President Trump

jal · Post by **jal** » Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:11 pm

What Hillary is really thinking (a parody)

https://medium.com/@shitHRCcantsay/let- ... .ix6o8pkgy

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Fri Jul 29, 2016 7:11 pm

Ha! Would be funny to know what's actually on the mind of any pol who has had to do the equivalent of "the dab on Ellen." I think Bill actually liked playing his sax on the circuit. Jim, any "dab" moments in your illustrious political career?

In the interest of equal time, another parody (don't ever lose your sense of humor, fellas):

http://reason.com/reasontv/2016/07/29/w ... -dnc-video

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 11:53 am

More equal time. Sadly, less of a parody...

http://reason.com/archives/2016/07/29/i ... blicans-ha

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 2:59 pm

Oh boy, here we go, the kinder, gentler Donald Trump:

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/07/30/op ... times.com/

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 4:27 pm

This can't be good for the Dems:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/18/politics/ ... dmore_pool

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 5:40 pm

Cherry-picking an outlier poll:

RABA Research - July 29th (956 Likely Voters) - Clinton +15

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:23 pm

Unless I'm misreading this, Patrick, your boy Nate Silver has Trump winning:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... -forecast/

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:27 pm

I notice big Nate has the Maine second CD leaning Trump. (He has Maine blue on the big map, but divided blue and red in the state by state map. Clinton would likely win the statewide vote, giving her 3 of Maine's 4 electoral college votes. But if Trump wins the second congressional district -- Lewiston to points north, up to Canada -- he would get the remaining fourth elector.)
That would be exactly one electoral vote for Trump, which could create a 269-269 scenario, thus thrusting it into the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and creating a constitutional crisis of epic proportions. Just run through what happens then, when the House elects Paul Ryan as our next president. There will be civil war.

My vote really could mean something for a change!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:42 pm

Just re-did the map. If we use Nate's latest calculations, where he has Donald winning FL, IA, NH, OH, and NV among others he's likely to win (including, NC), then if ALL of Maine's vote go to Hillary it is 269-269, neither has the required 270, and it goes to the House.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:46 pm

I'm glad I didn't put money on Nate's "Hillary-has-an-85%-chance-of-winning" prediction.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:51 pm

I believe a 269-269 tie goes to the lame duck House and not the newly elected House?
Not that it is going to matter, I guess.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 10:28 pm

You're correct, one of 538's forecasts currently gives the Donald a 0.2% greater chance of victory right now. But their 'polls-plus' forecast (which factors in things like convention bounces) still has Hillary winning 60.4% of the time.

This could be a fairly close election in terms of the popular vote, say within 2-4% (though my gut says it will be more like between a 5-7% margin of victory for Hillary when it's all said and done), but Hillary is still likely to have a comfortable margin of victory in the Electoral College even in a tight race given the state polling and the Blue Wall. Trump has to sweep virtually all of the swing states to win.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:34 am

I'm starting to think it's the other way around Patrick, that it's Clinton who has no margin for error.
I'm thinking PA, uncomfortably, has become a firewall.
If she doesn't win PA she is toast.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:36 am

You could be right, Jim. Let's put it this way-- if Trump wins PA, all bets are off and at a bare minimum Hillary will have an real uphill battle from there. But from what I've read, if Trump wins PA, he still needs FL, OH, and NC to win, so I he could win PA but lose the election. But winning PA opens up many more pathways to victory for Trump for sure.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:39 am

Yeah, but if he wins PA that means he is doing so well that he IS going to win FL, OH, NC, and a lot more. If she can't beat him in PA she's not going to beat him in OH, FL, NC.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:57 pm

Electoral Map gives Trump few places to go:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/us ... times.com/

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:51 pm

Yeah I read that article. You don't believe anything the NYT has to say, do you?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:54 pm

Where have you gone James Reston, Tom Wicker, Anthony Lewis, Russell Baker, William Safire, Hedrick Smith, and on and on, our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

What a rag now. Do you think they'll still be in print in 5 years?

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:29 pm

Yesterday I took the time to watch HIllary Clinton's speech with my full attention.
Thursday night I had been out late at an offline, and only caught the end of the speech live, then watched a replay of the Cspan feed until I fell asleep.

While very long, I think it was cohesive and, overall, inspirational.
She did a good job of summarizing all the points presented during speeches that preceded hers.
She presented specific policies that she intends to pursue as president.
She came across as genuine and personable, and her delivery was unforced.

From my perspective it was an excellent conclusion to a successful nomination event.
The party found a way to unify around the candidate, and with a very progressive platform.

I predict a shift in the polls in the upcoming weeks that demonstrates a narrowing of Trump's avenues to victory.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:38 am

I get a kick out of these old Hitchens videos against the Clintons.
They are therapeutic for a Hillary hater like me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cf8CUgAj_84

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Aug 01, 2016 10:45 pm

The Jim How Top Ten Greatest Presidents, and their Bordeaux wine counterparts…..

#10. Dwight Eisenhower. It was tough, there are about 5 or 6 others who could easily be included in the top 10, I'll mention them in honorable mention at the end. But if I have to pick, I have to include Ike in my top ten. He gets in, of course, at least as much if not more for his leadership in WWII, managing the competing personalities involved. As president he presided over post-war growth and prosperity, the interstate highway system, appointed Earl Warren, provided moderation at a time the country welcomed it, warned against the military-industrial complex. He was strong and solid, nothing fancy, but great backbone, like a great St. Estephe, a Cos d'estournel of the 1980s or even a Montrose of the 2000s. B+.

#9: Woodrow Wilson: Despite his faults, he ushered in a new era. In his 8 years there was a paradigm shift in world power, as the United States emerged at the top. He was celebrated mightily in Europe at the end of World War I, enhancing American power and strength (for better and worse). Despite its ultimate failures, the League of Nations set a template and created a mechanism for the solution of world problems that was quite revolutionary at the time and that set in motion for the next century a new way of thinking about global relations that had never existed before in the history of the world. The population and immigration influx grew enormously during his administration. His racism will knock him down from a higher standing but, hey, there will be others higher on this list who owned hundreds of slaves. Presiding over victory in World War I tends to score high with most historians. He was an incredibly lusty, pornographic lover, writing literally thousands of unapologetically pornographic letters to his two wives. He suffered a serious stroke and the fruit did not survive the tannins. He was an intellectual, stern, with a surprising sultriness… like the 2002 left bank Bordeaux vintage. B+.

#8: Barack Obama: 1989-Lynch-Bages-like. As we have sunk to crazy depths in American politics in the past 20-30 years, Obama has shown class, steadiness, quiet strength. He can be infuriating at times when he "plays the game" of Democratic Party politics. I almost took him off the list this week for his continuing support of Debbie Wasserman alone. (James Polk sadly goes out of the top ten, I really wanted to get him in there.) But I think that, regardless of the outcome this November, the world is going to miss this guy. He scores very big points in my book for his class, intelligence, calm. He and his administration have been scandal free, no small task in this day and age. He has a beautiful family. Obamacare may not be everything people hoped for, but it is at least a beginning. And it is a FDR-like "big idea" that will go down in history as a success. He stalked and got Bin Laden. He has been steadfast for women's rights, which to me is one of the top three most important issues. He is witty. He has a lot of Hillary in him in that he is slow to come around on certain issues until the polls say it is okay, but for some reason it doesn't offend me as much. He has a charming geekiness about him. His life story is compelling, his election historic. Certain economic indicators like the stock market, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, etc., may seem strong but belie fundamental, structural weaknesses in the economy that he has not had much impact upon in his 8 years, keeping him from a higher grade. I guess, in the end, I just think he's a good man, a basically decent person. He inherited some awful messes. I guess we'll have to see how his foreign policies end up playing out, but in general I think if you answer the Reagan question: Politics aside, "are we better off today than we were 8 years ago?" I say, the answer is "Yes." B+.

#7: James Madison. As I've said several times, this country has been REALLY lucky to have some great stewards in the office of the presidency. With only a few notable exceptions (and one that I'm sure some will find very surprising on my list), even our less successful presidents have carried the torch well, certainly when you compare them up against what we see in other parts of the world. It was a completely different universe, of course, an age when the president used to just walk or ride his horse out among the public. But in many ways James Madison bears some similarities to Eisenhower, in the sense that perhaps his greatest accomplishments occurred BEFORe he became president, then went on to have a successful two term administration during a time of dramatic post-war growth. James Madison was "The Father of the Constitution," with John Jay and Alexander Hamilton one of the authors of The Federalist Papers, tasked with selling the Constitution to the skeptical states. As if that wasn't enough, he basically wrote the Bill of Rights -- something we take for granted today but by no means a given in his day. He was part of a group of men that come around once every thousand years or so. He was integral to the Louisiana Purchase, which doubled the size of the young country. His young wife Dolley expanded the role of the first lady, again, stuff we take for granted today. His leadership and writing had as much of an impact on the path of American jurisprudence that was to come for two centuries. What a man! A bit of a tannic streak with the mismanagement of the War of 1812, but a beast of a president! 1982 Gruaud Larose. A-minus.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Mon Aug 01, 2016 11:21 pm

JimHow wrote:The Jim How Top Ten Greatest Presidents, and their Bordeaux wine counterparts…..

#10. Dwight Eisenhower. It was tough, there are about 5 or 6 others who could easily be included in the top 10, I'll mention them in honorable mention at the end. But if I have to pick, I have to include Ike in my top ten. He gets in, of course, at least as much if not more for his leadership in WWII, managing the competing personalities involved. As president he presided over post-war growth and prosperity, the interstate highway system, appointed Earl Warren, provided moderation at a time the country welcomed it, warned against the military-industrial complex. He was strong and solid, nothing fancy, but great backbone, like a great St. Estephe, a Cos d'estournel of the 1980s or even a Montrose of the 2000s. B+.

#9: Woodrow Wilson: Despite his faults, he ushered in a new era. In his 8 years there was a paradigm shift in world power, as the United States emerged at the top. He was celebrated mightily in Europe at the end of World War I, enhancing American power and strength (for better and worse). Despite its ultimate failures, the League of Nations set a template and created a mechanism for the solution of world problems that was quite revolutionary at the time and that set in motion for the next century a new way of thinking about global relations that had never existed before in the history of the world. The population and immigration influx grew enormously during his administration. His racism will knock him down from a higher standing but, hey, there will be others higher on this list who owned hundreds of slaves. Presiding over victory in World War I tends to score high with most historians. He was an incredibly lusty, pornographic lover, writing literally thousands of unapologetically pornographic letters to his two wives. He suffered a serious stroke and the fruit did not survive the tannins. He was an intellectual, stern, with a surprising sultriness… like the 2002 left bank Bordeaux vintage. B+.

#8: Barack Obama: 1989-Lynch-Bages-like. As we have sunk to crazy depths in American politics in the past 20-30 years, Obama has shown class, steadiness, quiet strength. He can be infuriating at times when he "plays the game" of Democratic Party politics. I almost took him off the list this week for his continuing support of Debbie Wasserman alone. (James Polk sadly goes out of the top ten, I really wanted to get him in there.) But I think that, regardless of the outcome this November, the world is going to miss this guy. He scores very big points in my book for his class, intelligence, calm. He and his administration have been scandal free, no small task in this day and age. He has a beautiful family. Obamacare may not be everything people hoped for, but it is at least a beginning. And it is a FDR-like "big idea" that will go down in history as a success. He stalked and got Bin Laden. He has been steadfast for women's rights, which to me is one of the top three most important issues. He is witty. He has a lot of Hillary in him in that he is slow to come around on certain issues until the polls say it is okay, but for some reason it doesn't offend me as much. He has a charming geekiness about him. His life story is compelling, his election historic. Certain economic indicators like the stock market, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, etc., may seem strong but belie fundamental, structural weaknesses in the economy that he has not had much impact upon in his 8 years, keeping him from a higher grade. I guess, in the end, I just think he's a good man, a basically decent person. He inherited some awful messes. I guess we'll have to see how his foreign policies end up playing out, but in general I think if you answer the Reagan question: Politics aside, "are we better off today than we were 8 years ago?" I say, the answer is "Yes." B+.

#7: James Madison. As I've said several times, this country has been REALLY lucky to have some great stewards in the office of the presidency. With only a few notable exceptions (and one that I'm sure some will find very surprising on my list), even our less successful presidents have carried the torch well, certainly when you compare them up against what we see in other parts of the world. It was a completely different universe, of course, an age when the president used to just walk or ride his horse out among the public. But in many ways James Madison bears some similarities to Eisenhower, in the sense that perhaps his greatest accomplishments occurred BEFORe he became president, then went on to have a successful two term administration during a time of dramatic post-war growth. James Madison was "The Father of the Constitution," with John Jay and Alexander Hamilton one of the authors of The Federalist Papers, tasked with selling the Constitution to the skeptical states. As if that wasn't enough, he basically wrote the Bill of Rights -- something we take for granted today but by no means a given in his day. He was part of a group of men that come around once every thousand years or so. He was integral to the Louisiana Purchase, which doubled the size of the young country. His young wife Dolley expanded the role of the first lady, again, stuff we take for granted today. His leadership and writing had as much of an impact on the path of American jurisprudence that was to come for two centuries. What a man! A bit of a tannic streak with the mismanagement of the War of 1812, but a beast of a president! 1982 Gruaud Larose. A-minus.

Interesting topic Jim...

With respect to Barack Obama, you touched upon the mess he inherited. Couple of years after the 2008 financial debacle, I was in the b-school, and we had some interesting debates, seminars and lectures (not to mention the profs sharing their insights and working research papers about the financial crisis), and boy was it a bad situation since the great depression. As awful as it was, an average american did not have a complete picture how close we came to the brink...In those circumstances (again not to mention with ongoing war in Iraq), I wonder what other presidents would have done.

And most importantly, you did not mention, but I think Obama faced unprecendented opposition from certain sections of congress, media and people unlike any other president before. And I think quite frankly, it's because of racism, if not explicitly. I can give so many examples how some regular american people (which either I knew or even the stuff my wife heard at her workplace) talked about him as if he is less than human. I cannot fathom any other reason other than racism, the reason why he was road blocked on every issue unlike any other president before and creating an administrative gridlock (Ofcourse there are other reasons also, but it makes even more harder for a President who is viewed through the lense of race).

Interested to see the remaining list of your take on the president...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Aug 01, 2016 11:54 pm

You are right, CV. I did intend to talk about Obama's "Do Nothing" Congress.
And you are right, I believe racism is a significant element involved.

Fun to watch the Republicans still tightroping this whole Muslim soldier issue.

The Democrats have co-opted the Patriotism issue, which used to be the complete domain of the GOP.

I remember during the Bush/Gore controversy the Republicans were arguing that late-arriving overseas military ballots should still be counted in Florida, knowing full well that Bush was going to get a majority of the votes. It was a bullshit argument, of course.

Now it is the Democrats who have the soldiers, generals, and patriots on our side.
Those Muslim parents were certainly an incredible moment at the convention, but I'm still squeamish about it.

The other thing I like about Obama: You get the impression that the most powerful man in the world, in a household with four other women -- his wife, his two girls, and his mother-in-law -- is about the fourth or fifth most powerful person in that household….

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Aug 02, 2016 1:37 am

Wow, coming up... the top 6 presidents of the United States of America. Wow.
I'm in awe. What men!

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Tue Aug 02, 2016 10:34 am

The Gold Star parents thing would have been just another convention speech if it wasn't for the egotism of the republican candidate.
He can't take criticism in any form without lashing out at the messenger, rather than listening to the message.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:34 pm

Racer Chris wrote:The Gold Star parents thing would have been just another convention speech if it wasn't for the egotism of the republican candidate.
He can't take criticism in any form without lashing out at the messenger, rather than listening to the message.

Yes, but it did put him in a new and possibly unique light a far as I'm concerned. He's the only billionaire I can think of who has sacrificed his way to fortune (unless you count Warren Buffet for only splurging for Dairy Queen, Coke and the occasional porterhouse).

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Tue Aug 02, 2016 7:44 pm

JimHow wrote:Where have you gone James Reston, Tom Wicker, Anthony Lewis, Russell Baker, William Safire, Hedrick Smith, and on and on, our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

What a rag now. Do you think they'll still be in print in 5 years?

Trump agrees with you on the NYTimes:

Donald Trump floated rescinding his permission for The New York Times to cover his presidential campaign's events as he blasted the newspaper as "totally dishonest."
"The Washington Post has gotten a little bit better lately, I took away their press credentials," he said to the crowd at a rally in Columbus, Ohio.
"I should do it with the Times, but the problem is you get more publicity from doing it — just let them ride."
The Republican presidential nominee went on to chide the Times by predicting the paper will not be "in business more than two to three years."

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Aug 02, 2016 8:02 pm

I'm not an expert but I think the New York Times has some big problems with unfunded pension liabilities:

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2015/06/eri ... -bankrupt/

They took like a billion dollar loss when they sold the Boston Globe:

http://nypost.com/2013/08/03/new-york-t ... cent-loss/

Their best money making enterprise was their interest in the Red Sox and they even had to sell that.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Tue Aug 02, 2016 9:17 pm

The Cellartracker notes on '82 GL suggest a solid A from that vintage - written by reliable note writers.
A couple years ago I enjoyed a bottle of the 1986 and I gave that an A. Hard to believe it was nearly 30 at the time.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Wed Aug 03, 2016 11:35 am

Maybe anticipating the rest of your list, Jim, I was randomly wondering if a Piper hadn't crashed in the darkness over Martha's Vineyard 17 years ago what the political landscape might look like now. Had the feeling that a certain young man was dabbling in acting, academics and magazine publishing, biding his time for the moment. Maybe he wouldn't have wanted it. Can only assume he would've been a force. He almost certainly would've waltzed through this election cycle. Who knows.....

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Aug 03, 2016 11:46 am

You are indeed reading my mind, JScott.

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Wed Aug 03, 2016 3:25 pm

Wow, 25 pages of posts!

And I haven't put in my 2 cents yet!

Trump has very bad press over here.
What needs to be understood is this: the issue is not his conservative politics. It's his vulgarity, brutality, and ignorance.

A personality issue.

A friend best described him as "unhinged".

Needling and belittling people is bad enough, but Trump called into question the very basis of the Nato alliance.
That is unbelievably stupid and dangerous.

Can the Republicans find someone else to replace him?

I would have been tempted to say that the American public is too smart to vote for him, but they did re-elect (kind of....) George W. Bush.
So, anything can happen!
Still, with the screwed-up American electoral system, and the way the polls are going, I'm hopeful Trump will be defeated in November.

All the best,
Alex R.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Wed Aug 03, 2016 4:02 pm

Alex,
There's a lot of recent talk over here that he may have a classic case of Narcissistic Personality Disorder.
Some people say that's just his way of behaving to get what he wants, others say its a sign of mental illness.

GOP stalwarts are really suffering - trying to distance themselves from him, while not retracting their endorsements of him.
John McCain is in that untenable position right now. House Speaker Ryan and Senate Majority Leader McConnell are in the same boat.

Former CIA head Michael Hayden says there are no National Security Experts currently advising Trump.

Trump's most recent comments about getting a Purple Heart the easy way are going to kill his chances of gaining any support from the military in the election.

This morning I heard talk of what the GOP might be able to do if Trump quits.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Aug 03, 2016 4:49 pm

There's a long way to go….

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Wed Aug 03, 2016 10:27 pm

It's later than you think.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Aug 03, 2016 11:35 pm

We shall see, Hound. We live in not even 24 hour news cycles. A week ago Trump was ahead in the polls. Three days ago Nate Silver had him winning the race. He's had a couple crazy days because he is crazy. But by Labor Day it will be a vague memory. Three months is an eternity in politics. Carter was like ten points up in the polls a week before the election against Reagan, before the "there you go again" debate. A week later Reagan won in a landslide.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Aug 03, 2016 11:43 pm

Trump's only hope at this point are the debates, IMHO.

If the election were today, he'd lose by 10+ pts and give the Senate back to the Dems. A Fox News poll today has Clinton up by 10 pts.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Wed Aug 03, 2016 11:43 pm

JimHow wrote:We shall see, Hound. We live in not even 24 hour news cycles. A week ago Trump was ahead in the polls. Three days ago Nate Silver had him winning the race. He's had a couple crazy days because he is crazy. But by Labor Day it will be a vague memory. Three months is an eternity in politics. Carter was like ten points up in the polls a week before the election against Reagan, before the "there you go again debate…"

Not to mention Dukakis' big lead over Papi Bush, and Bush invoking 'If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen...'

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Aug 04, 2016 12:53 am

Watching the big guy right now on youtube in a live speech in Jacksonville. The crowd of thousands is overflowing out into the streets. He is as happy, rambunctious, obnoxious, unapologetic, narcissistic, blustery, as ever. He looks like he's having fun and could care less what Paul Ryan thinks of him. The crowd is in a frenzy. I'm telling you, this race is far from over.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Aug 06, 2016 12:55 am

The big man came to Maine yesterday. He was introduced by our crazy Tea Bag governor, Paul LePage. He had clearly been fed some hate talking points. He attacked the immigration of Somalis into Maine as a huge danger. It really hit home. Most of the Somalis have moved into Lewiston. They are peaceful, friendly, living quiet, happy lives, raising their children in their new country after escaping civil war torn Somalia. Their kids even helped Lewiston High School win its first-ever state soccer championship this past year. I represent many of them. One of them, a nursing supervisor, cared for my father in his final hours last year. I was filled with such sadness by his hate speech, it was no longer just his bloviating on the news, it was now local, personal. His speech was so filled with hate! Scary stuff.