President Trump

[AKR]

I think a key aspect to remember is that HRC lost 2016. Trump never really won anything. His opposition just fumbled stuff (collecting cash in CA when lots of states were not locked down).

And now this time he will be the loser, and it will go on his permanent record. No way to escape that, not like how he concealed his grades (some baloney student confidentiality) or his family squabbles (more NDA nonsense).

The failure to come in November will be an enduring mark of shame for him and his family for all time. It will be like when Norwegians use the word 'Quisling'.

All Biden has to do is just stay out of sight, in his basement for another 100 days. Let his satraps do the talking.

[JimHow]

Lol. Wow, amen my brother.
We'll raise a toast when the bastard is gone after he dies near the end of his third term and Sam Alito is the center of SCOTUS.
You think I'm joking...

[JimHow]

You know, I just can't watch any more of this train wreck.
I didn't watch any of the "convention" last night, and I won't tonight.
I'm sure Michelle gave a great "speech."
It's all the same old, same old.
The same boss, wake me when the mess is over and it's time for the nasty old men to take over and fight the same old battles.
The millennials... Oh my fucking god, what a worthless piece of shit of a generation.
I mean, what are we old fogeys fighting your battles for, you can't even at least go out and get a freaking absentee ballot?
Lost in their iPhone video games while fascism ingrains, dyes into their future.
They are lambs in a wolf's game.

[dhp]

Of course, when all else fails blame the Millenials. A tale as old as time now.

[JimHow]

You'll get no apologies from me, dhp, I stand by what I said. Let me know if you'd like me to cite you some voting data.

[JimHow]

You're darn tootin', I'm in a nasty mood.
We should all be nasty right now. We should all be going down hard, we're about to lose sumthin' big.
Unite, snowflakes. Unite. At least a wet snowball?

[dhp]

You're darn tootin', I'm in a nasty mood.

Hah, that I can tell. I don't deny that millenial voting participation has lagged behind their Gen X and boomer counterparts, but the language just seemed... extreme. Surely every generation bears blame for our current problems; it hardly seems useful to lay the blame of the world at the feet of a single generation (which is hardly monolithic, mind you).

Also, I did spend a few days around Acadia and did notice the number of Trump/Pence signs that have troubled you so. But, I remain cautiously optimistic that Trump will be defeated (if not pessimistic that the fractious politics of our country will only worsen). I look forward to a day where you can claim he knew that Biden had it in the bag all along.

[JimHow]

Indeed, dhp, the boomer generation is pretty vile as well.
As I often say, I pray I am wrong about election 2020.
Acadia.. my favorite place on earth.

[tim]

Ah, it's definitely political season!

I must admit, I often fundamentally and vehemently disagree with many progressives. But I disagree with those that have taken over the GOP even more. As a liberal moderate, Biden is a good choice, and Biden/Harris is an excellent ticket. Then again, I thought that Hillary would have been the greatest President in a generation. Sometimes capability and politics are two different things.

The thing that shocks the system is that Trump is even competitive. He is a lying, unethical, immoral, cheating scumbag who isn't worthy of eating a flaming pile of dog shit off my boot. And yet people still want to vote for him. There is a cancer in this country, and it isn't Trump. It is people who think that Trump should be President. That will not go away with this election. And the electoral college gives these people more power than the majority.

[Comte Flaneur]

Well said Tim

[Claret]

.
.


It’s not going to change the minds of the Trump faithful. I hope it motivates the apathetic to realize the importance of making their vote count. If it does that, it’s a success.

Amen to that David...Me thinks people have already made the decision. The only question is how many people will come out and vote, irrespective of their tribalism or affiliation....

I am trying to gt my sister to register and vote. She gets agitated when I mention registering...

[Comte Flaneur]

God Save America from phonies like this (who have the ear of the President):

https://youtu.be/spouhfBiQjs

[AKR]

.
.


It’s not going to change the minds of the Trump faithful. I hope it motivates the apathetic to realize the importance of making their vote count. If it does that, it’s a success.

Amen to that David...Me thinks people have already made the decision. The only question is how many people will come out and vote, irrespective of their tribalism or affiliation....

I am trying to gt my sister to register and vote. She gets agitated when I mention registering...

As my sister complains, if she registers to vote she will have wear other civic duties/burdens like Jury Duty and the like.

[Chateau Vin]

God Save America from phonies like this (who have the ear of the President):

https://youtu.be/spouhfBiQjs

The douchebag in the whitehouse is easily manipulative among many other things. He is a manuchurian candidate for entities outside the US as well as for the domestic snake oil sales men...It does not matter. The SOB is rotten...

[DavidG]

I saw that MyPillow asshat interview live. Senate intelligence committee report is even more disturbing.

I’m going back to saying Trump should be prosecuted and thrown in jail, assuming he’s booted out of the White House. F*ck destabilization. He’s caused so much destabilization already, and he deserves a prison cell for the crap he’s pulled. Him and his demon spawn and Kushner.

First we’ve got to dump him.

[JimHow]

Steve Bannon arrested. My goodness.
The breadth of corruption in this administration is breathtaking.

[Chateau Vin]

Steve Bannon arrested. My goodness.
The breadth of corruption in this administration is breathtaking.

I am certain this is just the tip of the iceberg. It’s good that these things are coming out now. I hope other members of his coterie and his family will be booked if they too had committed any crime or corruption. If the Orange pig is out in Nov, these people will have no where to hide other than the prison...

[AKR]

Can Trump issue preemptive pardons/clemency?

It seems like everyone gets Get Out of Jail Free cards now.

In Italy they have caught 3000 elected officials taking pandemic grants for the 'self employed'.

That is impressive even by Chicago political standards.

[jal]

The hypocrisy is staggering
Trump and his cohorts yelling "Lock her up"
Republicans not willing to shake Bill Clinton's hand because as they said: "He disgraced the presidency"

And yet, has there ever been a more corrupt, disgraceful president than our current one?

[Blanquito]

Steve Bannon arrested. My goodness.
The breadth of corruption in this administration is breathtaking.

The corrupt are Trump's people. Given his decades-long history of bending the rules, fraud, money laundering, and outright stealing... who else is he gonna feel comfortable with?

One thing is clear from all this though -- Mike Pence really is a robot.

[JimHow]

I'm trying to decide who is tougher to take, the My Pillow Guy or Tom Selleck the Reverse Mortgage Man.

I thought Kamala's speech last night was... eh.

I'm inclined to drop the HQ a point or two over all these scandals but I truly think this guy could walk down Fifth Ave and shoot somebody and it wouldn't change minds....

Man, Barack is the man. One of the top ten greatest presidents, in my humble opinion.

Let's see how Joe does tonight.

[JimHow]

We've done this before and I'm too tired to look up how it differs with my past list, but my Top Ten Greatest Presidents list is as follows. I'm sure I've moved Barack up the list. He is a great man. I've taken off Th.J., TR, WW, and Andrew Jackson in the spirit of the times, although there's probably racism in 90% of our presidents, it's in the DNA of this country. And the list is probably short on the Founding Fathers, but I thought I'd throw Federalist Papers author Madison in there. This is where I'm at in 2020. And, yes, I'm adding Jimmy Carter as a lifetime achievement award. And, no, can't bring myself to add Ronnie Ray Gun, I refuse to misremember the damage that bastard did. And, no, my omission of HST is not unintentional. Looks like the Jims are representing the list well, of course.... There's a bit of a common thread in my selection, though not completely uniform, see if you can figure it out.

10. Jimmy Carter
9. James Polk
8. James Madison
7. James Garfield
6. Dwight Eisenhower
5. Barack Obama
4. Franklin Roosevelt
3. George Washington
2. Abraham Lincoln
1. John F. Kennedy

[Chateau Vin]

We've done this before and I'm too tired to look up how it differs with my past list, but my Top Ten Greatest Presidents list is as follows. I'm sure I've moved Barack up the list. He is a great man. I've taken off Th.J., TR, WW, and Andrew Jackson in the spirit of the times, although there's probably racism in 90% of our presidents, it's in the DNA of this country. And the list is probably short on the Founding Fathers, but I thought I'd throw Federalist Papers author Madison in there. This is where I'm at in 2020. And, yes, I'm adding Jimmy Carter as a lifetime achievement award. And, no, can't bring myself to add Ronnie Ray Gun, I refuse to misremember the damage that bastard did. And, no, my omission of HST is not unintentional. Looks like the Jims are representing the list well, of course.... There's a bit of a common thread in my selection, though not completely uniform, see if you can figure it out.

10. Jimmy Carter
9. James Polk
8. James Madison
7. James Garfield
6. Dwight Eisenhower
5. Barack Obama
4. Franklin Roosevelt
3. George Washington
2. Abraham Lincoln
1. John F. Kennedy

I think I had Obama at #7 and you had him at #8 previously. I think he deserves better than #7 I gave him before. I think his speech was the best among the yesterday’s lineup. I was neither impressed nor unimpressed with Kamala’s speech. But I thought it could have been better...

[JimHow]

I just love Barack Obama. Brilliant intellect, calm, classy, great family man, how did we go from that to this.

[JimHow]

My most recent HQ and electoral college scores:

How Quotient:

HQ = 60

Electoral College Projection:

254 - 284

I will amend them, without comment, following Joe's speech....

[JimHow]

Biden-Trump tied in Minnesota poll. That's bad news, folks. The poll factors in Trump's "quiet" support, but I truly believe in that phenomenon. All the lovely court clerks here in Maine who we liberal criminal defense lawyers love and who love us over the rotten state prosecutors, they are ALL voting for Orange Head. Former police chief here in Lewiston solidly for DJT, the Bannon indictment means nothing, shoulda happened to Bill/Hillary.

We may lose Minnesota. ... Give that '89 Lynch plenty of air, Mr. Glasser.... even Hillary didn't lose MN.

[Blanquito]

Biden is crushing it so far tonight in his acceptance speech.

[JimHow]

How Quotient:

HQ = 55

Electoral College Projection:

258 - 280

The speech was solid.
The lead up was good, with the granddaughters and Steph's daughters.

I still have Orange winning.
I just see "normal" people I know where in Maine -- court clerks, police officers, ship builders, etc. -- no matter how much corruption in the White House, there is NOTHING that will change their mind.

Now let's see what kind of BS the Republicans produce next week....

[JimHow]

His speech was good, but not as good as the My Pillow Guy.

[Racer Chris]

I think this November many people who answered polls in favor of Trump will abandon him at the ballot box. It will be the reverse of 2016.

[Comte Flaneur]

Five things:

1. Jim you are being selective with polls in this thread selecting rogue polls to support your apocalyptic vision - you should look at poll averages...
2...which show that in the key states - I actually listed a broader group of 17 states - Biden is ahead by about five points...
3...so was Hillary in August 2016, but the crucial difference here is the undecideds were a much bigger group then...this time round opinion is so polarised and the vast majority have made up their minds...that is why polls have been so stable and will likely remain so...Trump therefore has a much bigger mountain to climb here that he did in 2016, which is why he is resorting to cheating...
4. To reinforce Chris’s point, in 2016 many people took the view ‘anyone but Hillary’ - this time round it is ‘anyone but Trump’ - my dog Twizzler could win against Trump
5. Steve Bannon may cut a deal with prosecutors to save his sorry ass, so they can go after Trump, who will be very nervous

[Blanquito]

100%, Ian.

2016 was much more fluid than now, with 15% and at times even 20% of the electorate unhappy with both candidates and open to persuasion. But in 2020, Biden is at +50% nationwide and in nearly all the key swing states. The States which are Biden +50% easily get him over 300 EC votes, and Trump is not especially close where it counts, trailing by 5–10% or more in these battlegrounds. And as Ian notes, the race has been remarkably steady so far, without any signs of the volatility that could really shuffle the deck.

So, how does Trump win against an opponent at +50%? He can help himself a lot first by tightenIng the race and improving his own standing, but mathematically there’s really only one way to do it: Biden’s support has to substantially erode, either through his negatives going up (scandals or stumbles are the most likely way as Trump’s attacks don’t seem to work against Biden) or through poor turnout on Election Day (read= Trump voter suppression, outright cheating).

These things could happen, but the nation seems unusually on guard for the chicanery afoot and Biden was very strong last night (lower expectations always help). The debates could be especially important this year, but if Biden comes out of those in good shape, it’s really hard to see how he loses.

[JimHow]

We shall see. I think you guys are wrong but what do I know, and, of course, I pray you are right.
I predict we will be essentially tied, within margins of error, by the end of the Republican convention and going into Labor Day.
And I don't think the campaign even really begins until after October 1st, into the debates.

As for Joe:
The CNNs of the world are calling it "the speech of a lifetime," etc., etc.
Really??? I mean, it was okay, but there were no goosebumps for me.
I like Joe, and some of my concerns about his mental state have been alleviated somewhat in recent days, but Barack Obama he is not.
But if I couldn't get Bernie or Liz, I am more than happy to have Joe as my nominee.
The problem is this is going to be more about Orange, for better or worse.
And I'm not sure the Democrats are electrifying anybody with their message.
Let's see how the GOP does next week.
I still have Orange winning, with an HQ of 55.

[Blanquito]

Jim, I promise you (and my wife) this: if I’m singing the same tune by early October — that Biden is looking like a solid win —and he loses, I’ll never weigh in on a presidential horse race again.

[tim]

I prefer that Democrats take Jim's stance and predict a Trump win, if nothing else than to motivate people to get to the polls. The last thing we need is an assumption that Biden is too far ahead (although given 2016, I don't think anyone assumes that anymore).

I thought Biden killed it at his speech. It was the best speech I ever saw him make, and I thought he looked more Presidential than ever before. The Convention came across better than I expected, even though it fell short in many ways. But I'm more pleased with Biden as the nominee than I ever have been. And I'm so thankful that it is not Bernie, who would have caused me to leave the Party had he been the nominee, even if I would have voted for him against Trump.

It's clear that the left is still very divided about the future of the Party and the policy positions. But Biden has done a nice job of bringing people together to battle Trump.

[Blanquito]

I thought Biden killed it at his speech. It was the best speech I ever saw him make, and I thought he looked more Presidential than ever before. The Convention came across better than I expected, even though it fell short in many ways. But I'm more pleased with Biden as the nominee than I ever have been.

Yes, yes, yes, yes and yes.

[jal]

Joe Biden is fine for me. I'll vote for him without any misgivings. I would have preferred a younger candidate, but he'll do. I also like Kamala Harris. While I like a lot of the Warren/Sanders agenda (Medicare for all, gun control, free college, etc...) I am afraid that their character would have been too incendiary to get anything done, I know Jim disagrees on this, but that's too risky in my view and may have lead to violent clashes (with about 60% of this population bearing arms, that is not an empty fear).

One thing that I was also concerned about was whether the Democratic Party would move to the far left in order to placate the Bernie Sanders supporters. I was worried that a victory for Biden would have been more difficult if it did occur.

I am glad that has not happened, but I am afraid that another win for Trump would move the Democrats to an extreme left for the 2024 elections. Same as a the two Obama wins moved the Republicans to an extreme right. That's one more reason to vote for Joe, actually, keep the Democratic Party safe in the center left spectrum of politics for now.

I am really hoping for a huge win for Biden. Not because he needs it to prove he is the legitimate winner, but because the last four years of Trump must be vehemently rejected by a huge majority of the electorate.

[JimHow]

We will win if the people in this video vote for Joe Biden:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8lAIfTwHuw

[DavidG]

To quote you Jim: "We are doomed."

[JimHow]

Lol.

And we wonder how this clown got elected.