Defending lawsuits is going to chew up a lot of his time.

I generally decant to get the wine off the sediment, so that's most red wines old enough to drink. Anything else is foo, I suspect.

Ha I'm sure you saw Bill Maher's monologue, Jacques, he described Trump as a stalker, like that divorced father who comes and kills his family and wife on Christmas Eve. He is indeed a creep. Kamala nailed it tonight. Joe was great, he has an endearing nerdiness and awkwardness to him. Meantime, th...

Quietly attempting to beat a path back to political respectability.

Only a little speck of orange left now, just got to keep on scrubbing.

Biden's going to win three of AZ, NV, PA and GA, maybe all four. It would be something if he ends up with 300+.

Yes, I think ME2 has been called for Trump. Politico reports an 8 point lead with 98.2% of precincts reporting so that looks done.

But Biden is inching closer. WI, MI, AZ and NV put him at 270 and it looks like he will have them all. Trump will huff and puff for ever more, of course.

I told you about those paranoid Cuban-Americans in Florida. Joe Biden was on the ballot but they read Fidel Castro.

But with AZ and NE2 in the bag and Wisconsin and Michigan to come, it must be Biden now. Though still nothing like the repudiation of Trump that was needed.

That Economist prediction is like Valium, but I don't think I'm buying it.

Trump looked like a beaten man on a TV clip earlier, however.

Claim asylum in the UK?

https://www.politico.eu/article/not-a-s ... rump-poll/

Haven't more than 50% already voted?

It's the hope that kills you, Jim. I understand your view emotionally, but I have to say your reasoning is all pretty plausible. The polls are tightening. I am not at all confident and have never been so nervous about an election outside the UK given the likely ramifications for the entire world.

And to throw a Senate prediction in too:

Dems gain five, lose one.

Here's mine.

Biden 305 - wins MI WI PA AZ NC
Trump 233 - holds FL GA OH

Trump's going to win 40%+ of the vote so of course it's not difficult to find his supporters. But I think Covid has done for him.

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/38doY

Interesting piece on AZ here. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/26/maricopa-county-phoenix-donald-trump-2020 I've thought all along that Biden will win the state. Kyrsten Sinema won Maricopa by four points in 2018. Does anyone think the Dem vote will be down on that? FWIW I don't think Bi...

For Trump to win, two things have to happen. One, he needs to retain pretty much every vote he won in 2016. Two, Biden fails to win any more votes than Clinton, an unpopular candidate who caused many usual Dem voters to stay at home. My prediction is Biden to flip Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and...

At this point it looks as though Biden needs only to stay alive. Trump will do the rest for him.

I read today that the 'extreme vetting' procedures will basically be some kind of test, with questions on what potential immigrants think of sharia law etc. That doesn't sound very tough to me. It doesn't even sound as hard as a DMV drivers license test. Question 1: You're not from around here, are...

15,000 people were killed by guns in the US last year.

Given the new administration's apparent concerns for the safety of Americans, will we see strict gun laws and extreme vetting for gun licences introduced from next week?

'Couldn't care less', pretty please!

Looking ugly. Trump may have it.

How are you feeling about your prediction, Jim?

My completely unscientific gut feeling is that it will be closer than you're all predicting - Clinton vote under 50%, college under 300. And I still think a Trump victory is possible.

When can we expect exit polls from key states?

+1 on that Antoine, a very pertinent question.

My wife thinks it's driven by misogyny. But I don't remember that being a huge factor for other female premiers, least of all for Margaret Thatcher.

Even if he loses the election Trump has already succeeded in a way. He leaves a trail of chaos and scorched earth and the hatred, division and deranged thinking his rhetoric has whipped up and exploited won't just evaporate on November 9th.

15-20 years is about right for these if you like a little maturity.

Election? This is a circus. Democracy is a zombie.

Ah So hasn't failed me yet, and at 10-15% of the cost of the Durand. I'm not sure the screw is needed on the latter; if the cork is that fragile the centre will chew up, which is exactly what you're trying to prevent.

It's incredible that Trump is still in the running at all. It says that there's a terrible and looming sickness in US democracy and indeed US society that such a divisive, deranged and obnoxious figure could be anywhere near being elected to any office, never mind President. Not to say this is a sin...

DavidG wrote:No, Jeff Levy, movie producer. Not Jeff Leve of winecellarinsider.com.

Rudi, I agree, decadence and cretinism is an apt description.

Yes, absolutely. Although I'd put them in the reverse order. These Beavis and Butthead wannabes made for excellent comic relief!

Much has been made of the supposed white working class support for Trump, but I wondered if it's really such a big factor. There was a similar narrative around the Brexit vote but once you start digging you discover it's not really true: most of the affluent parts of England outside London voted for...

Has Giuliani always been this deranged? He seemed to strike a statesmanlike figure in the 9/11 aftermath but his current behaviour is bizarre. I wonder if he's up to his neck in dodgy deals with Trump while Mayor.