What are your predictions?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/29/opin ... cline.html
I'm no expert, but I'm a politician. I know people. Thus my successful 23 year run as a benevolent dictator without serious interruption.
China, to me, is a phony, failing state. It's a US wannabe. And if India were smart, it would run in the opposite direction.
I'm just a country lawyer / benevolent dictator from Maine, but I'm not buying the shit that China has to offer. The ultimate question, of course, is whether we are as stupid as they are. My sense is that we are not, but we are going to have to weather a storm coming out of China. The China impact on French wine prices has already been baked in, I'm guessing.
I've been skeptical about all this China business all along, and now I'm afraid my fears are being realized. The question is, how badly will we be hurt by the economics of this authoritarian country?
China
Re: China
I have some (many) experience with China despite never visiting there myself.
A few observations:
1. Chinese people are extremely proud of their history and their place in the world. They don't want to be the US. They want to be China.
2. Chinese people tolerate their system of government, not because they like it, but because it is the system they have. Many would prefer a democracy. Others see the benefits of a single party system. Still others just don't care.
3. The Chinese work and family ethic is different than that of the US and the Western world. In some ways it benefits China. In many ways it doesn't.
All of these are generalizations, of course, and they ignore the geopolitical situation of China regarding Taiwan and other regions.
As far as US policy, we should a) defend our geopolitical interests e.g. Taiwan, South China Sea; b) promote trade with other Asian countries (the Sanders/Trump rejection of TPP set us back decades due to the far-right/far-left anti-globalization stupidity); c) protect our interests in critical industries, including mineral and semiconductor.
A few observations:
1. Chinese people are extremely proud of their history and their place in the world. They don't want to be the US. They want to be China.
2. Chinese people tolerate their system of government, not because they like it, but because it is the system they have. Many would prefer a democracy. Others see the benefits of a single party system. Still others just don't care.
3. The Chinese work and family ethic is different than that of the US and the Western world. In some ways it benefits China. In many ways it doesn't.
All of these are generalizations, of course, and they ignore the geopolitical situation of China regarding Taiwan and other regions.
As far as US policy, we should a) defend our geopolitical interests e.g. Taiwan, South China Sea; b) promote trade with other Asian countries (the Sanders/Trump rejection of TPP set us back decades due to the far-right/far-left anti-globalization stupidity); c) protect our interests in critical industries, including mineral and semiconductor.
Re: China
Here’s a more optimistic take, one which I find less convincing than Bret Stephens’.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/26/busi ... Position=9
I think you’re right about the Chinese economy being a house of cards, and that its collapse will have significant repercussions.As to stupidity, I’m not sure if you’re referring to the general population or government leaders.
I view the Chinese leadership as ruthlessly authoritarian and the population as cowed, but I have no real insight into the people or their leaders.
In the US, we have some pretty smart people but it feels more and more like they’re getting drowned out by the Stu Pedassos. In and out of government. I agree with Tim’s points on US policy.
I think what will really cause a global crisis is when millions are displaced and then many more millions start dying due to climate change. We are the proverbial frogs in the pot. While we fight over who uses which bathrooms, who should be allowed to have which guns, whether women have autonomy over their own bodies, and worry about the threat of nuclear annihilation, we are slowly cooking ourselves and the entire planet. The planet will be fine. Especially once it’s rid itself of a few billion pesky humans.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/26/busi ... Position=9
I think you’re right about the Chinese economy being a house of cards, and that its collapse will have significant repercussions.As to stupidity, I’m not sure if you’re referring to the general population or government leaders.
I view the Chinese leadership as ruthlessly authoritarian and the population as cowed, but I have no real insight into the people or their leaders.
In the US, we have some pretty smart people but it feels more and more like they’re getting drowned out by the Stu Pedassos. In and out of government. I agree with Tim’s points on US policy.
I think what will really cause a global crisis is when millions are displaced and then many more millions start dying due to climate change. We are the proverbial frogs in the pot. While we fight over who uses which bathrooms, who should be allowed to have which guns, whether women have autonomy over their own bodies, and worry about the threat of nuclear annihilation, we are slowly cooking ourselves and the entire planet. The planet will be fine. Especially once it’s rid itself of a few billion pesky humans.
Re: China
The fact that the Chinese economy will decline is a given to me. It is a demographic disaster. Bret Stephens notes it but the one child policy is creating huge imbalance many years after it was repealed.
The economy is running out of workers
It depends on import of raw materials
It depends on the safety of shipping lanes which the US can stop guaranteeing at any time
It cannot innovate and keep up with the West, technologically and militarily.
Here's a short video by Peter Zeihan that focuses on one point but touches on the rest.
https://youtu.be/bUXiGNc-x4g?si=4Q8gfo7cPI3CFjgk
I liked his book "the End of the World is Just the Beginning". I don't agree with a lot of his views but they are interesting nonetheless.
The economy is running out of workers
It depends on import of raw materials
It depends on the safety of shipping lanes which the US can stop guaranteeing at any time
It cannot innovate and keep up with the West, technologically and militarily.
Here's a short video by Peter Zeihan that focuses on one point but touches on the rest.
https://youtu.be/bUXiGNc-x4g?si=4Q8gfo7cPI3CFjgk
I liked his book "the End of the World is Just the Beginning". I don't agree with a lot of his views but they are interesting nonetheless.
Best
Jacques
Jacques
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greatbxfreak
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greatbxfreak
- Posts: 958
- Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2009 9:09 pm
- Location: Copenhagen, Denmark
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Re: China
I like to be here, but recently it has been several political threads that may be not that interesting for BWErs outside USA.
It is BordeauxWineEnthusiasts and not PoliticalEnthusiasts imho.
It is BordeauxWineEnthusiasts and not PoliticalEnthusiasts imho.
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JimHow
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Re: China
It's the way we have been since Day One, GBF, we talk about other things occasionally besides wine. I like the free flowing discussions here, that's why posts are very rarely deleted. I try to avoid uptightness here. If a thread does not interest you, just go on to the next one.
Re: China
I don't understand your comment, you have been a member since the beginning, since 2009. You must have seen thousands of non wine related posts, you even mentioned not enjoying them and been told countless times this is the way we are. Why even say something now? What possibly do you expect to achieve?
I thought the China discussion was interesting and I was looking forward to learning about others' views, I suggest you start a new post calling it something like: "Should we have non wine discussions?" and posting your grievances there, in the meantime, all you are doing is hijacking this thread.
I thought the China discussion was interesting and I was looking forward to learning about others' views, I suggest you start a new post calling it something like: "Should we have non wine discussions?" and posting your grievances there, in the meantime, all you are doing is hijacking this thread.
Best
Jacques
Jacques
Re: China
I have traveled to China and set up a business for exportation. It is the world's factory; dirty, poor air quality (even on the nice days) and everyone has a hacking cough or is clearing their throat continuously. I have said for quite a few years that a slight pull of a thread will begin to unravel their economy. We will see. Side-bar: I'd love to see climate activists go there to see things first hand.
Re: China
Hi,
China’s rise is due to a strong belief in their version of manifest destiny.
Americans of my generation grew up believing their country was the best, number one in many, many ways – and that this would remain so. Despite political differences, Americans pulled pretty much in the same direction. The country prospered and went from strength to strength.
The Chinese are into this dynamic, whereas Americans no longer are. Divisions are deep and painful in the US and the idea of supremacy is largely backward looking, as opposed to the Chinese faith in their future.
Do successful countries need to be democratic? I was certainly brought up to believe this, but the answer is not at all obvious if the issue is examined objectively.
China’s current economic woes are ones that a Western European country would love to have. The Chinese downturn in growth still lives Europe standing in the dust.
And then, there’s diplomacy. The Chinese have been very systematic, with medium to long-term goals, forging strongly ahead on the international checkerboard.
The 20th century was American. Will the 21st be Chinese? It is dangerous to extrapolate, but indicators are that this will be the case.
I’m mostly left wondering if a war can be avoided between America and China, never mind Russia. My 22 year-old Chinese tenant thinks this is inevitable. She is not alone.
Alex R.
China’s rise is due to a strong belief in their version of manifest destiny.
Americans of my generation grew up believing their country was the best, number one in many, many ways – and that this would remain so. Despite political differences, Americans pulled pretty much in the same direction. The country prospered and went from strength to strength.
The Chinese are into this dynamic, whereas Americans no longer are. Divisions are deep and painful in the US and the idea of supremacy is largely backward looking, as opposed to the Chinese faith in their future.
Do successful countries need to be democratic? I was certainly brought up to believe this, but the answer is not at all obvious if the issue is examined objectively.
China’s current economic woes are ones that a Western European country would love to have. The Chinese downturn in growth still lives Europe standing in the dust.
And then, there’s diplomacy. The Chinese have been very systematic, with medium to long-term goals, forging strongly ahead on the international checkerboard.
The 20th century was American. Will the 21st be Chinese? It is dangerous to extrapolate, but indicators are that this will be the case.
I’m mostly left wondering if a war can be avoided between America and China, never mind Russia. My 22 year-old Chinese tenant thinks this is inevitable. She is not alone.
Alex R.
Re: China
Alex,
I agree with your take on a lot of this. We live in an "information" age where public opinion can be so easily shaped and molded about our geopolitical adversaries based on the loudest and most promoted voices, which are unlikely to be the most informed in many cases. I think people would be blown away by the similarities between our societies to be honest. The difference is in the tactics. The Chinese are OK with surveillance and have accepted the devices installed by their government. We install the cameras and devices ourselves (sold and marketed to us) in our own homes with data constantly being gathered on us. The Chinese have a ruling elite (CCP) that remain in power - we have one too that has co-opted both parties and relies on vaudevillian political theater to create the illusion that we don't. Too many other examples to list.
I can state, emphatically, that based on the sample size of Chinese citizens I speak with here in the US or abroad, that Xi has the support of the people and they trust in their system of government far better than we trust in ours these days. The state sponsored capitalism model that they have allows for extremely high levels of coordination within the government to tackle emergent issues ("China's Superbank" is very interesting book to read to understand the inner mechanics of their financial system).
The main issue, as I see it today, is that the virtuous cycle of cooperation between the US and China has broken. We are a debt-laden consumption based economy whose largesse was only enabled by China providing the factories, cheap input costs (labor), etc, and on the other side of it, recycling their current account surplus into US Treasuries. This is all slowly unwinding behind the scenes and there will be pain on both sides - their economy slows, and wealth inequality and lowered standards of livings will ratchet up in the US under this arrangement.
Re your last point, Alex, it is hard to see how we escape the Thucydides Trap here. China has been playing the long game for a very long time, and I unfortunately do not see a way back at this point that doesn't either result in war by proxy (far more likely - a "strategy of denial" in military terms) or direct confrontation (I pray not in both cases but this one far more dire for humanity as a whole).
Jim
I agree with your take on a lot of this. We live in an "information" age where public opinion can be so easily shaped and molded about our geopolitical adversaries based on the loudest and most promoted voices, which are unlikely to be the most informed in many cases. I think people would be blown away by the similarities between our societies to be honest. The difference is in the tactics. The Chinese are OK with surveillance and have accepted the devices installed by their government. We install the cameras and devices ourselves (sold and marketed to us) in our own homes with data constantly being gathered on us. The Chinese have a ruling elite (CCP) that remain in power - we have one too that has co-opted both parties and relies on vaudevillian political theater to create the illusion that we don't. Too many other examples to list.
I can state, emphatically, that based on the sample size of Chinese citizens I speak with here in the US or abroad, that Xi has the support of the people and they trust in their system of government far better than we trust in ours these days. The state sponsored capitalism model that they have allows for extremely high levels of coordination within the government to tackle emergent issues ("China's Superbank" is very interesting book to read to understand the inner mechanics of their financial system).
The main issue, as I see it today, is that the virtuous cycle of cooperation between the US and China has broken. We are a debt-laden consumption based economy whose largesse was only enabled by China providing the factories, cheap input costs (labor), etc, and on the other side of it, recycling their current account surplus into US Treasuries. This is all slowly unwinding behind the scenes and there will be pain on both sides - their economy slows, and wealth inequality and lowered standards of livings will ratchet up in the US under this arrangement.
Re your last point, Alex, it is hard to see how we escape the Thucydides Trap here. China has been playing the long game for a very long time, and I unfortunately do not see a way back at this point that doesn't either result in war by proxy (far more likely - a "strategy of denial" in military terms) or direct confrontation (I pray not in both cases but this one far more dire for humanity as a whole).
Jim
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Comte Flaneur
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Re: China
I have followed China quite closely for about three decades. It is part of my job. But I don’t pretend to be an expert on the country. There are so many points to make that it may take several posts. The first point to make is that there are no experts on China outside the close and secretive inner circles of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Chinese and China-based economists for western investment banks tend to be cheerleading stooges and shameless glass-half-full merchants for the CCP. Nobody really has an edge on China. We have a lot of very smart Chinese people in our company but we don’t have an edge in understanding the big picture and what is really going on there. However a successful investment strategy has been based on the cliched aphorism that it is never as bad or as good as the extreme optimists and pessimists assume - so that you top and tail, buy low sell high. But it could be that we are now at a tipping point.
The second point is to remember that the Chinese leadership are not stupid. Paranoid control freaks yes, but not idiots. They are very much playing the long game and focused on restoring China to what they see as its rightful place as the leading, largest and most dominant economy and power in the world, where it was for centuries at approximately 15% of the global economy. Which does not mean that they would be competent in executing a war. If China tried to invade Taiwan now it might end up in an Ukraine-like outcome even without direct US support.
America, as the pre-eminent global power, is very much aware that China is threatening its global hegemony which is why hostility towards China is really the only issue which has full bi-partisan support. So I agree with Jim’s supposition that the Thucydides Trap will be difficult to avoid. But as already noted the US can cut off Chinese supply routes for oil for example - it could just blockade the strait of Malacca - which is why China will not try to invade Taiwan before 2030. And China is not close to military equivalence with the US. Could you imagine Chinese war ships in the Caribbean, just as you have American warships in the South China Sea? Unthinkable.
The third point is not to believe anything the Chinese authorities say. As an economist the Chinese economic data are pure fiction and garbage. You get a better idea of what is going on by observing things like the behaviour of key commodity prices. We may be at an inflection point now because China’s growth model is broken. China is now a middle income country with rich country debt (to GDP) levels, now suffering from deflation when the rest of the world has inflation. The model of boosting investment in industrial capacity, infrastructure and property investment is now a busted flush with excess supply which cannot be exported to the same extent anymore as China and the west cleave economic ties. This exacerbates domestic deflationary tendencies which could push China into a debt deflationary death spiral.
These policy failings have been exacerbated as Jacques noted by China’s catastrophic 36 year experiment with a one child policy which has created a demographic time bomb. Based on modal UN projections by 2100 China’s population currently 1.4bn will be down to 800m, where as the US population would have risen to nearly 400m from its current 335m. President Xi is difficult to read but showing the hallmarks of being an evil, paranoid, control freak psychopath like Vladimir Putin. His extreme paranoia and authoritarian tendencies have recently featured a crack down on entrepreneurship which has crushed animal spirits in the Chinese economy. This, the demographic time bomb and limited further dividends from urbanisation - the shift in population from the agrarian economy to the cities with higher productivity - has largely run its course so China’s growth engines are pretty burnt out now.
China could be a bit like Japan from here and blighted by debt deflationary tendencies. The Chinese people themselves are proud, hardworking and materialistic. They worship the money god. When you combine that with unfettered capitalism and democracy (Hong Kong until recently) or without democracy (Singapore) the effects are explosive. If China had adopted a Singaporean growth model - which may not have actually been possible for such a large economy - it would already be game over. China would already be numero uno. But fortunately for the US Xi has killed off the entrepreneurial spirit and replaced that with a regime of fear.
The second point is to remember that the Chinese leadership are not stupid. Paranoid control freaks yes, but not idiots. They are very much playing the long game and focused on restoring China to what they see as its rightful place as the leading, largest and most dominant economy and power in the world, where it was for centuries at approximately 15% of the global economy. Which does not mean that they would be competent in executing a war. If China tried to invade Taiwan now it might end up in an Ukraine-like outcome even without direct US support.
America, as the pre-eminent global power, is very much aware that China is threatening its global hegemony which is why hostility towards China is really the only issue which has full bi-partisan support. So I agree with Jim’s supposition that the Thucydides Trap will be difficult to avoid. But as already noted the US can cut off Chinese supply routes for oil for example - it could just blockade the strait of Malacca - which is why China will not try to invade Taiwan before 2030. And China is not close to military equivalence with the US. Could you imagine Chinese war ships in the Caribbean, just as you have American warships in the South China Sea? Unthinkable.
The third point is not to believe anything the Chinese authorities say. As an economist the Chinese economic data are pure fiction and garbage. You get a better idea of what is going on by observing things like the behaviour of key commodity prices. We may be at an inflection point now because China’s growth model is broken. China is now a middle income country with rich country debt (to GDP) levels, now suffering from deflation when the rest of the world has inflation. The model of boosting investment in industrial capacity, infrastructure and property investment is now a busted flush with excess supply which cannot be exported to the same extent anymore as China and the west cleave economic ties. This exacerbates domestic deflationary tendencies which could push China into a debt deflationary death spiral.
These policy failings have been exacerbated as Jacques noted by China’s catastrophic 36 year experiment with a one child policy which has created a demographic time bomb. Based on modal UN projections by 2100 China’s population currently 1.4bn will be down to 800m, where as the US population would have risen to nearly 400m from its current 335m. President Xi is difficult to read but showing the hallmarks of being an evil, paranoid, control freak psychopath like Vladimir Putin. His extreme paranoia and authoritarian tendencies have recently featured a crack down on entrepreneurship which has crushed animal spirits in the Chinese economy. This, the demographic time bomb and limited further dividends from urbanisation - the shift in population from the agrarian economy to the cities with higher productivity - has largely run its course so China’s growth engines are pretty burnt out now.
China could be a bit like Japan from here and blighted by debt deflationary tendencies. The Chinese people themselves are proud, hardworking and materialistic. They worship the money god. When you combine that with unfettered capitalism and democracy (Hong Kong until recently) or without democracy (Singapore) the effects are explosive. If China had adopted a Singaporean growth model - which may not have actually been possible for such a large economy - it would already be game over. China would already be numero uno. But fortunately for the US Xi has killed off the entrepreneurial spirit and replaced that with a regime of fear.
Re: China
Guys
I live in a country which is 80% Chinese, my lovely wife Wendy is Chinese (she moved to Singapore 30 yrs ago), I’ve been there quite a few times and my in-laws and many friends and business associates live there. I also taught international businesses at Australian Universities for some years and extensively studied the entry of western firms into China.
I have enormous respect for the Chinese people who are so resilient and adaptable but I have nothing nice to say about Xi Jinping. In the last decade Xi has changed the image of China throughout Asia. Had he been more rational and reasonable China’s growth would be much stronger than it is now.
One important point I need to make at the outset is that the growth in China from the 80s onward, with the Special Economic Zones of Deng, were largely funded by westerners. There was tremendous investment from the free world into China and often with the expectation that China - after freeing up its economy- would change politically. That was a reasonable assumption yet Xi has scuttled it and dragged the nation back into the past with anti-western rhetoric, reeducation camps (gulags) the social credit system, bullying of regional neighbors and military and economic expansionism incl the Belt and Road initiative. I could go on but I’ll spare you the details.
The region is extremely worried about Xi’s belligerence and expansionism. At the same time, their economic woes have hit hard- the property sector (including the company Wendy works for) is a disaster and several other industries are in big trouble.
China does NOT have an understanding of economic cycles and how to deal with them as it has been a communist dictatorship for a century. This point seems to be misunderstood by many. Freedom of speech, press and just about everything else does not exist and after improvements before Xi’s reign, which were remarkable by their scale, have often been wound back.
If you have not worked this out yet, to Xi and the CCP, they ARE China. I cannot stress this enough. Any criticism is a personal attack. Any pressure will be resisted and force is the only currency.
You guys don’t get to watch Chinese TV and regional station’s reports on China. They are scary I have to say. Xi is clueless as to how to deal with macro economic issues in a market economy. It will only get worse if he continues.
China is quite prepared to fight with anyone and everyone- from border disputes with India to to maritime disputes with everyone in the region.
I don’t really want to discuss the people as they have no say in proceedings and have to watch their butts. Wendy got back from a trip thru China two weeks ago and she was quite shocked at the recent changes - snd working for a Chinese property developer isn’t exactly easy in 2023.
I am well into my 60s and have never been so worried about regional security as Xi has dragged China back into the Mao era. By all means visit there and see the anti western hyperbole. It only understands force.
I started commenting on the SEZ’x set up in the 80s and 90s. The west really hoped that China would turn its back on communism due to economic expansion and open trade. Yet it never played by the same rules and the hopes of the west of political change never occurred. Even worse it has gone backwards during the last decade.
Will China collapse? The answer is NO as it is too powerful and economically diversified. Yet the western world needs to understand fast that the CCP is not its friend and that they will take whatever they can by any any means.
I live in a country which is 80% Chinese, my lovely wife Wendy is Chinese (she moved to Singapore 30 yrs ago), I’ve been there quite a few times and my in-laws and many friends and business associates live there. I also taught international businesses at Australian Universities for some years and extensively studied the entry of western firms into China.
I have enormous respect for the Chinese people who are so resilient and adaptable but I have nothing nice to say about Xi Jinping. In the last decade Xi has changed the image of China throughout Asia. Had he been more rational and reasonable China’s growth would be much stronger than it is now.
One important point I need to make at the outset is that the growth in China from the 80s onward, with the Special Economic Zones of Deng, were largely funded by westerners. There was tremendous investment from the free world into China and often with the expectation that China - after freeing up its economy- would change politically. That was a reasonable assumption yet Xi has scuttled it and dragged the nation back into the past with anti-western rhetoric, reeducation camps (gulags) the social credit system, bullying of regional neighbors and military and economic expansionism incl the Belt and Road initiative. I could go on but I’ll spare you the details.
The region is extremely worried about Xi’s belligerence and expansionism. At the same time, their economic woes have hit hard- the property sector (including the company Wendy works for) is a disaster and several other industries are in big trouble.
China does NOT have an understanding of economic cycles and how to deal with them as it has been a communist dictatorship for a century. This point seems to be misunderstood by many. Freedom of speech, press and just about everything else does not exist and after improvements before Xi’s reign, which were remarkable by their scale, have often been wound back.
If you have not worked this out yet, to Xi and the CCP, they ARE China. I cannot stress this enough. Any criticism is a personal attack. Any pressure will be resisted and force is the only currency.
You guys don’t get to watch Chinese TV and regional station’s reports on China. They are scary I have to say. Xi is clueless as to how to deal with macro economic issues in a market economy. It will only get worse if he continues.
China is quite prepared to fight with anyone and everyone- from border disputes with India to to maritime disputes with everyone in the region.
I don’t really want to discuss the people as they have no say in proceedings and have to watch their butts. Wendy got back from a trip thru China two weeks ago and she was quite shocked at the recent changes - snd working for a Chinese property developer isn’t exactly easy in 2023.
I am well into my 60s and have never been so worried about regional security as Xi has dragged China back into the Mao era. By all means visit there and see the anti western hyperbole. It only understands force.
I started commenting on the SEZ’x set up in the 80s and 90s. The west really hoped that China would turn its back on communism due to economic expansion and open trade. Yet it never played by the same rules and the hopes of the west of political change never occurred. Even worse it has gone backwards during the last decade.
Will China collapse? The answer is NO as it is too powerful and economically diversified. Yet the western world needs to understand fast that the CCP is not its friend and that they will take whatever they can by any any means.
Re: China
Thanks for all the color on China to commenters here. Interesting stuff. That nation seems to be following the trajectory of Imperial Japan in the 1920's, as they are tipping into some kind of financial crisis.
Re: China
Very interesting discussion. I was in China for a business trip for 3 weeks in 2019, and most of the people are just looking for a better life and happyness. And i agree that it is a very friendly and welcoming people, proud of their old and great cultural heritage and achievments.
I'm working for a very good Australian-UK company, that chinese interests are shareholders for something like 25-35 % of the company. It seems to work not that bad.
I don't understand why international relationship between countries, are always splitted between 2, 3 or 4 different poles/groups. And it looks like when some try to open lightly their mind, the other take that opportunity to turn their back immediately... Or go on a smaller scheme: lot of misunderstandings, no deals, don't understanding the other, here in a "quiet country" like Canada. How can it be better on a bigger scheme?
At the end, we might be the most "intelligent" animals, but we're still at the animal level!
I'm working for a very good Australian-UK company, that chinese interests are shareholders for something like 25-35 % of the company. It seems to work not that bad.
I don't understand why international relationship between countries, are always splitted between 2, 3 or 4 different poles/groups. And it looks like when some try to open lightly their mind, the other take that opportunity to turn their back immediately... Or go on a smaller scheme: lot of misunderstandings, no deals, don't understanding the other, here in a "quiet country" like Canada. How can it be better on a bigger scheme?
At the end, we might be the most "intelligent" animals, but we're still at the animal level!
Re: China
Ian
Yes Xi is behaving irrationally and dangerously.
The leaders in most SE Asian nations are pissed off with China and there is now more anticipation that Taiwan will be invaded.
Xi is much more interested in his political legacy than any number of human beings. He has been talking up his desire to “reunite” China which is code for invasion. Can’t imagine there will be any reunion parties in Taiwan.
Xi has repeatedly made the point that it is part of his personal legacy.
As for being paranoid he’s banned Winnie the Pooh - someone used that character as a parody of Xi. Maybe next Bugs Bunny will be banned. Oh well.
You are absolutely correct about economic data in China. The CCP set a central target and then compile data from the Provincial govts who find ways of goosing up the data. Singapore for example don’t bother quoting the official data. They rely more on other indicators such as trade and exports- which is way down this year - consumer spending and industrial output, which all question the official data.
The people I most feel sorry for are HK citizens as Xi reneged on the agreement with Thatcher’s govt to keep HK separate for 50 years. And as always, when the UK complained it is “interfering with the internal affairs” of China. The extent of bullying of other Asian countries is also worsening and I can’t see any of it ending well.
Further, there is a broad based feeling in China that the glory days are done with. The Chinese economy tripled from 1990 to 2010 - okay, those figure’s are probably goosed up but Wendy’s family and friends there are all suggesting that the general feeling is that the good times are ending.
Seems that many Asian states have low TFR - not just China but South Korea, Singapore, Japan, and even the Muslim nations locally here are now growing at a lower rate.
Cheers
Mark
Yes Xi is behaving irrationally and dangerously.
The leaders in most SE Asian nations are pissed off with China and there is now more anticipation that Taiwan will be invaded.
Xi is much more interested in his political legacy than any number of human beings. He has been talking up his desire to “reunite” China which is code for invasion. Can’t imagine there will be any reunion parties in Taiwan.
Xi has repeatedly made the point that it is part of his personal legacy.
As for being paranoid he’s banned Winnie the Pooh - someone used that character as a parody of Xi. Maybe next Bugs Bunny will be banned. Oh well.
You are absolutely correct about economic data in China. The CCP set a central target and then compile data from the Provincial govts who find ways of goosing up the data. Singapore for example don’t bother quoting the official data. They rely more on other indicators such as trade and exports- which is way down this year - consumer spending and industrial output, which all question the official data.
The people I most feel sorry for are HK citizens as Xi reneged on the agreement with Thatcher’s govt to keep HK separate for 50 years. And as always, when the UK complained it is “interfering with the internal affairs” of China. The extent of bullying of other Asian countries is also worsening and I can’t see any of it ending well.
Further, there is a broad based feeling in China that the glory days are done with. The Chinese economy tripled from 1990 to 2010 - okay, those figure’s are probably goosed up but Wendy’s family and friends there are all suggesting that the general feeling is that the good times are ending.
Seems that many Asian states have low TFR - not just China but South Korea, Singapore, Japan, and even the Muslim nations locally here are now growing at a lower rate.
Cheers
Mark
Re: China
Guys
Just for a laugh about China today.
I've talked a bit in the past about fakes in China.
there is a new fake - BLACK PIGS.
Yeah pigs are now being painted black as they are worth more.
Southern Europe in particular values the meat from black pigs - in Spain it's called black leg pig- and they are relatively valuable.
Well at least I suppose it is a pig, just one with paint and/or dyes.
So what is also fake?
the opening of the Asian games in Beijing was fake.
Yes, fake. I know this sounds stupid, but the opening was a computerised light show created for TV and Internet based systems.
On the TV, you saw a huge fireworks display and all sorts of lights.
What did people outside the venue see? Err, just the venue as normal.
Not sure if the competitors are real or not.
I have a feeling that in future, they will be AI creations like a lot of fake humans on Facebook.
Oh well....
Back over here, China is still just bullying everyone it can including the Philippines at the moment.
Cheers
Mark
Just for a laugh about China today.
I've talked a bit in the past about fakes in China.
there is a new fake - BLACK PIGS.
Yeah pigs are now being painted black as they are worth more.
Southern Europe in particular values the meat from black pigs - in Spain it's called black leg pig- and they are relatively valuable.
Well at least I suppose it is a pig, just one with paint and/or dyes.
So what is also fake?
the opening of the Asian games in Beijing was fake.
Yes, fake. I know this sounds stupid, but the opening was a computerised light show created for TV and Internet based systems.
On the TV, you saw a huge fireworks display and all sorts of lights.
What did people outside the venue see? Err, just the venue as normal.
Not sure if the competitors are real or not.
I have a feeling that in future, they will be AI creations like a lot of fake humans on Facebook.
Oh well....
Back over here, China is still just bullying everyone it can including the Philippines at the moment.
Cheers
Mark
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